Possible BCS Scenarios:

Week 12 is in the books, at least with the games that matter.  With two weeks to go in the season, there are alot of things that can still happen.  But its fun to talk about this a little bit early.

It has never been the BCS's goal to get all of their matchups to be great.  They only care about getting the best two teams and playing them in the title game.  But, they would like to get some quality matchups.

Here is a list of how the teams are selected and in what order.  It is kind of confusing so here is a synopsis:

1.  Champions of the six major conferences get auto bids

2.  If a Mid-Major finishes in the top 12, they get an automatic bid.  BUT they are only obligated to take one mid major.  They also get an auto bid in the top 16 if they finish ahead of another conference champion.  This will only matter if there are some major upsets next week.

3.  ND gets one if they finish in the top 8 ---- FAIL

Here is how the pool of at large teams is picked from:

1.  have at least 9 wins and finish in the top 14 of the BCS rankings

Ok, all well and good.  Now here is how they are selected

1.  Rose Bowl :  Big 10 and Pac 10 champ
2.  Sugar Bowl:  SEC champ
3.  Orange Bowl:  ACC champ
4.  Fiesta Bowl:  Big 12 champ
5.  BCS Title:  #1 vs #2

When one of those games loses its champion to the title game, they get first selection among the at large and other automatic qualifying teams.

Here is how the bowls will shake out for sure:

1.  Rose:  Ohio State vs. Oregon/Oregon State
2.  Sugar:  Florida/Alabama vs. ??????
3.  Orange:  Georgia Tech/Clemson vs. ??????
4.  Fiesta:  ????? vs. ?????
5.  National Title game:  Florida/Alabama vs. Texas

With TCU and either Cinci or Pitt qualifying automatically, there are now two at large selections available.  Keep in mind, you cannot have more than two teams from the same conference.  Here is a list of the current BCS teams with at large possibilities and their projected rankings tomorrow:

6.  Boise State
8.  Pittsburgh
11:  Oklahoma State
12:  Iowa
13.  Penn State
14:  Virginia Tech

Just outside:
15.  LSU
16.  USC

Wildcards:

If Oregon State beats Oregon and gets the Automatic bid, Oregan will drop by POSSIBLY not out of the top 14.  Same if Clemson beats Georgia Tech in the ACC title game.

LSU may not drop out of the top 14 which would take Va Tech out of the top 14, but LSU can't go anyways because both Alabama and Florida will be going.

Here is the selection order assuming the national title game is the SEC vs. Texas:

1.  Sugar Bowl (loses Florida or Alabama - that team will be number 1)
2.  Fiesta Bowl (loses Texas - will be number 2)
3.  Orange Bowl
4.  Fiesta Bowl
5.  Sugar Bowl

1.  Sugar bowl will take the SEC title game loser with the first pick

2.  It gets very tricky with the fiesta bowl.  I think if Oklahoma State is available (they have to beat OU first) they will keep the conference tie in.

3.  The Orange Bowl already has the ACC champ.  They do not HAVE to take an AQ team since there are two bowls left, so they have their choice.  I see Penn State getting the obvious nod here.  They would travel the best of the remaining teams.  They could take the big east winner, and might if it is Pitt, but I doubt it.

4.  Fiesta Bowl:  Have to take either TCU or the Big east champion here, and TCU just makes too much sense

5.  Sugar Bowl:  must take Big East winner as the bottom of the barrel selection.




So it is up to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl to take Boise State if anyone is going to do it.  The Fiesta bowl knows better than anyone how Boise's fans travel.  I am assuming not very well compared to the bigger fan bases.  And the Orange Bowl has its interests to protect.  Why subject your ACC team to that type of game AGAIN?!?!  .

So undefeated and mostly untested Boise State will get left out of the BCS.  As an at large, they don't have the fan base, they don't carry the national audience, and the big wigs of the big bowls will not want them at the party.  Fans want to watch the big boys.  This is fact, backed up by EVERY television audience poll.  Message board chatter may increase with the underdogs, but the myth of "everyone wants an underdog" is crap.  You may want it to happen, but you don't want to watch it happen.  You want to watch Alabama vs. Texas.  You don't care about TCU vs. Boise State.  This is not opinion, this is fact.

What do you think?  Should Boise be in somewhere?