Week 7 Musings and Wrap Up

As I write this a couple of games are still going on but the week is mostly done.  Couple of thoughts.  Starting at the top of the polls:

1.  Florida great team but has some weaknesses

If I had a ballot, I would still be voting Florida number 1.  I love this Alabama team and am excited for a possible 1 vs 2 match up in Atlanta for the SEC title game, but Florida is a great team.  I think Tebow is still feeling some ill effects from the concussion and is just not himself yet.  Spikes has been hurt, Joe Haden has been hurt so that is two leaders off of that defense that have been out.  But two straight games with low offensive output gives hope for everyone else in the SEC that Florida might be beatable.  Florida gave up nearly as many points today as they had all season so far (20 today, 32 all year).  I think if Florida and Alabama played today, Florida would come in 2 point favorites, and it would be a defensive slugfest 13-10 type of game.  But more on Alabama in a bit.

2.  Texas - not a great team right now, but lot of promise

If Texas doesn't find a way to run the ball better, this is going to be a long end of the season for the longhorns.  Good news is that they just jumped their biggest hurdle today in Oklahoma.  They needed some lucky calls, turnovers, and an injury to Sam Bradford to do it though.  McCoy ended up with some ok numbers of 21/39 127 yards 1 TD 1 INT, but that is very unlike the QB that throws mostly short passes for a great than 70% completion percentage.  Of course when you can stop the run, you are a good team.  And i think allowing -16 rushing yards is pretty good.  When your second "leading" rusher has -2 yards, the defense did something right.  Back to back weeks on the road against Missouri and Oklahoma State over the next two weekends will go a long way in determining the season.  If they win these two, I don't see another team that can stop Texas until the BCS title game.

3.  Alabama - Showing Weakness?

I have been saying since Week 4 against Arkansas that Alabama isn't a great offensive team.  Sure, they won that game going away and are undefeated, but its not because of their offense.  McElroy hasn't had a great outing in a few weeks.  Certainly not in the past two games, but I don't think he has looked great since the North Texas game.  He relied on big plays against Arkansas which like I said at the time is not good long term, and against Kentucky he didn't show much until the last drive of the first half.
Of course the glowing exception to all of this is the running game, specifically Mark Ingram.  Ingram ran for 246 yards and one touchdown against South Carolina tonight including EVERY yard on the game clinching, clock killing 4th quarter drive.  EVERY play was either a direct snap or hand off to Ingram on that drive.  South Carolina knew what was coming, and they still couldn't stop it.  When the Heisman lists start coming out tomorrow and Monday, expect to see that name all over them.  But on defense, there is not another defense in the nation that is better than Alabama, and only Florida comes even close.  There may be 10 NFL players on that defense when all is said and done.  Hightower goes down, we replace him.  Arenas goes down, and we just fill in with another guy without missing a beat.

4.  Heisman --- do we have a leader?

Here are some of the top contenders:

1.  Tebow - not looking like himself
2.  McCoy - not looking like himself
3.  Pike - possibly injured
4.  Bradford - injured
5.  Clausen - possible contender (much as I hate to admit it)
6.  Best - He has sucked lately

I don't see anyone else other than now Mark Ingram.  Ingram has 905 yards, 3rd in the nation.  All the stats haven't been compiled yet, but his YPA will certainly go up, he added his 8th TD, he is also a weapon coming out of the backfield.  I don't see how anyone else can be considered a better candidate at this point in the season.  Notre Dame is not a good team, so that will kill Clausen's chances before the year is out.  No one on USC is good enough right now.  Tebow and McCoy will still be the favorites until their team's lose, but they are not having seasons worthy of Heisman consideration.  I do not think Ingram will win it no matter how well he does since there is no national campaign for him right now, but if he keeps this up he will have the stats for it.

5.   First BCS standings come out tomorrow:

It may be a meaningless mile marker, but the BCS standings will be out tomorrow.  Teams that start the standings 1 and 2 VERY rarely play each other in the BCS title game, and this season is likely to be no different.  Since Florida and Alabama would be very hard pressed to play in the SEC and BCS title games, its not gonna happen.  Here is what the Standings may look like, going by the Brad Edwards Mock BCS standings from last week and taking out some of the losing teams:

1.   Florida
2.   Alabama
3.   Texas
4.   Boise State
5.   USC
6.   LSU
7.   Cincinnati
8.   Iowa
9.   Miami
10. Georgia Tech

I think USC and LSU should both be ahead of Boise given their schedule and the way they have handled it this season.  They need to be KILLING people since they play no one but they don't do that.

Georgia Tech is a big of a stretch since they were 19th and 20th in the polls this weekend, but a good win over a very toug Virginia Tech team should be enough to jump them into the top 10.  Officially they are 2nd in the Coastal division, but if they are able to beat Virginia this weekend, they will have the head to head victory over every divisional contender on the season with a game at Duke all that remains.  In fact, the Yellow Jackets shouldn't be tested again until Thanksgiving weekend against Georgia.  Are they a dark horse BCS contender?

Iowa may be a team to watch out for this season.  They still have a game against Ohio State remaining, but they have a lot of the standard formula for a great team.  Good running game, veteran QB, and a stout defense.  Only time will tell

6.  Looking ahead to next weekend.

Not much doing for the midweek games sadly enough.  Florida State @ North Carolina on Thursday night may have looked better in the preseason but won't be for much right now.  Only matchup between ranked teams is likely to be TCU vs. BYU.  This is a big one for those who like BCS Busters vs. Those of us who do not.  Boise State travels to Hawaii in another BCS Buster special.  That game will be online @ ESPN360.com.  LSU vs. Auburn is usually a big matchup, but not so much this year at least not nationally.  But, it may be one of my favorite weeks of the season because.......

7.  IT'S TENNESSEE WEEK!!!!

God do I HATE Tennessee!  I had to root for them to beat Auburn a few weeks ago and it just made me sick to do it.  I cannot stand those Viles.  Maybe its only because I only know UT of the Phil Fulmer years.  I know the rivalry used to be about respect.  I know you always wanted to beat UT, but you didn't hate them.  All the old coaches would say "You find out how much of a man you are by how you play against Tennessee (or Alabama coming from the other side)."  But I don't know THAT Tennessee.  I only know the Tennessee of Fulmer and the "secret witness."  I will talk more this week about the Tennessee week and what it means to Alabama, but that's a little taste right now.

For the Alabama fans that read this blog:  Who do you hate more:  Auburn, Tennessee, or someone else?  I know LSU and Florida are hated too

Week 7 Picks of the Week

1.  Virginia Tech - 3.5 @ Georgia Tech 5:00 PM ESPN2


Already talked about this game in the games of the week post so I won't dwell on it.  But Va Tech's offense is just too explosive to be stopped.  The Hokies will will convincingly

2.  USC - 10 @ Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC

Again, already talked about this one.  USC has all the skills, Notre Dame is weak.  Jimmy Clausen has his name on some Heisman lists, but that is all about to change.  Golden Tate will be doubled all day and that will take away most of The Domer's offense. USC may not be as explosive as in years past, but you won't find many more technically sound football teams out there.

3.  Illinois - 2.5 @ Indiana 6:00 PM Big Ten Network

Coming into the season, this game probably looked like a 20+ point Illinois advantage.  To be close to a pick'em game like this is nothing short of amazing.  Indiana has no talent whatsoever.  Pretty good numbers by the quarterback Ben Chappell with a 65% completion percentage, but with less than 7 yards per attempt, they don't exactly throw much other than easily completed balls.  And a 40 point loss to Virginia doesn't give me much to hope for.  Illinois on the other hand is full of talent, just not full of results yet this year.  They are just 1-4, but all four losses have been to very good football teams in Missouri, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State.  Arrelious Benn is still without a touchdown catch this season which is nothing short of amazing.  QB Juice Williams has just two TD passes this season, but one each in the last two games and he is getting back on track.  His performance against Michigan State was....well....bad however.  I think this is the game where they really put it all together and I see a 24-12 victory.

4.  Miami -14.5 @ Central Florida 6:30 PM

I know nothing about Central Florida this season, and that's just the point.  I know alot about Miami, and I like what I've seen outside of the Virginia Tech game.  Jacory Harris was a possible Heisman leader earlier in the year but has dropped off a bit.   He does have ten touchdown passes this season, but it is against already 7 picks.  Javarris James and Graig Cooper carry the load at running back and through the air, four receivers have double digits in catches with another sitting at 9.  This is a very good though not yet great Miami team.  I don't see them giving up much for points in this 41-10 win.

5.  Texas A&M -6 @ Kansas State 6:00 PM

K. State is 3-3 with wins against....well....no one.  They squeaked by again UMASS opening weekend, lost to Louisiana-Lafayette the next and got pretty much dominated by UCLA after that.  They did kill Tennessee Tech but just barely squeaked by Iowa State before getting smoked by Texas Tech.  There really is nothing to love about this team.  The Aggies have stumbled as of late, but make no mistake about it, they are a very good football team.  Getting dominated by Arkansas is no crime, that's a great football team.  And Oklahoma State is very good.  Quarterback Jerrod Johnson has a stunning 14-0 TD-INT ratio and is hitting 60% of his passes.  The Yards/Attempt average is a little low however.  Cyrus Gray leads the team in carries, but has under a five yard average.  7 Aggies have at least 10 catches this season.  I see a huge win for Texas A&M, maybe to the tune of 45-13.

Thursday Night Throwdown: Georgia Tech @ Miami

I love me some Thursday night football.  Don't love the ACC and Big East which is what we get most Thursday nights, but football is football.

Tonight's marquee match up is is Georgia Tech @ Miami.  Last season, the Yellow Jackets surprised the Hurricanes 41-23 in Miami.  And it wasn't even that close....Tech was up 41-10 going into the 4th quarter.  Tech threw just 7 times in the game last year while rushing 56 times for 472 yards.

But that was last year, and it was at home.  Miami will be alot more hostile that Atlanta, and the Hurricanes are on their way back to the top.  QB Jacory Harris is developing as a star right in front of us now that he isn't batting with Robert Marve for the starting job.

Historically, teams that see this offense the second time around do much better than they did the first time.  They have had a year of film to study now and have seen it in person once.

On the other hand, Tech probably has better talent across the board right now.  A few lean recruiting years at Miami decimated the depth of the program.  The last three seasons were good, both most of those players are still young and I thin the Canes are one year away from being truly back.   Tech's QB Josh Nesbitt was born for the offense they run and they have a thunder and lightening backfield combination in Jonathan Dwyer and Anthony Allen.

In the end, I like the Miami home crowd to give Jacory Harris the push he needs to lead Miami to a late 31-27 victory.