Possible BCS Scenarios:

Week 12 is in the books, at least with the games that matter.  With two weeks to go in the season, there are alot of things that can still happen.  But its fun to talk about this a little bit early.

It has never been the BCS's goal to get all of their matchups to be great.  They only care about getting the best two teams and playing them in the title game.  But, they would like to get some quality matchups.

Here is a list of how the teams are selected and in what order.  It is kind of confusing so here is a synopsis:

1.  Champions of the six major conferences get auto bids

2.  If a Mid-Major finishes in the top 12, they get an automatic bid.  BUT they are only obligated to take one mid major.  They also get an auto bid in the top 16 if they finish ahead of another conference champion.  This will only matter if there are some major upsets next week.

3.  ND gets one if they finish in the top 8 ---- FAIL

Here is how the pool of at large teams is picked from:

1.  have at least 9 wins and finish in the top 14 of the BCS rankings

Ok, all well and good.  Now here is how they are selected

1.  Rose Bowl :  Big 10 and Pac 10 champ
2.  Sugar Bowl:  SEC champ
3.  Orange Bowl:  ACC champ
4.  Fiesta Bowl:  Big 12 champ
5.  BCS Title:  #1 vs #2

When one of those games loses its champion to the title game, they get first selection among the at large and other automatic qualifying teams.

Here is how the bowls will shake out for sure:

1.  Rose:  Ohio State vs. Oregon/Oregon State
2.  Sugar:  Florida/Alabama vs. ??????
3.  Orange:  Georgia Tech/Clemson vs. ??????
4.  Fiesta:  ????? vs. ?????
5.  National Title game:  Florida/Alabama vs. Texas

With TCU and either Cinci or Pitt qualifying automatically, there are now two at large selections available.  Keep in mind, you cannot have more than two teams from the same conference.  Here is a list of the current BCS teams with at large possibilities and their projected rankings tomorrow:

6.  Boise State
8.  Pittsburgh
11:  Oklahoma State
12:  Iowa
13.  Penn State
14:  Virginia Tech

Just outside:
15.  LSU
16.  USC

Wildcards:

If Oregon State beats Oregon and gets the Automatic bid, Oregan will drop by POSSIBLY not out of the top 14.  Same if Clemson beats Georgia Tech in the ACC title game.

LSU may not drop out of the top 14 which would take Va Tech out of the top 14, but LSU can't go anyways because both Alabama and Florida will be going.

Here is the selection order assuming the national title game is the SEC vs. Texas:

1.  Sugar Bowl (loses Florida or Alabama - that team will be number 1)
2.  Fiesta Bowl (loses Texas - will be number 2)
3.  Orange Bowl
4.  Fiesta Bowl
5.  Sugar Bowl

1.  Sugar bowl will take the SEC title game loser with the first pick

2.  It gets very tricky with the fiesta bowl.  I think if Oklahoma State is available (they have to beat OU first) they will keep the conference tie in.

3.  The Orange Bowl already has the ACC champ.  They do not HAVE to take an AQ team since there are two bowls left, so they have their choice.  I see Penn State getting the obvious nod here.  They would travel the best of the remaining teams.  They could take the big east winner, and might if it is Pitt, but I doubt it.

4.  Fiesta Bowl:  Have to take either TCU or the Big east champion here, and TCU just makes too much sense

5.  Sugar Bowl:  must take Big East winner as the bottom of the barrel selection.




So it is up to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl to take Boise State if anyone is going to do it.  The Fiesta bowl knows better than anyone how Boise's fans travel.  I am assuming not very well compared to the bigger fan bases.  And the Orange Bowl has its interests to protect.  Why subject your ACC team to that type of game AGAIN?!?!  .

So undefeated and mostly untested Boise State will get left out of the BCS.  As an at large, they don't have the fan base, they don't carry the national audience, and the big wigs of the big bowls will not want them at the party.  Fans want to watch the big boys.  This is fact, backed up by EVERY television audience poll.  Message board chatter may increase with the underdogs, but the myth of "everyone wants an underdog" is crap.  You may want it to happen, but you don't want to watch it happen.  You want to watch Alabama vs. Texas.  You don't care about TCU vs. Boise State.  This is not opinion, this is fact.

What do you think?  Should Boise be in somewhere?

Weekend Musings for Week 5

I'm finally home from Lexington from watching Alabama vs. Kentucky this weekend.  Great trip, long drive, and no computer to update twitter or the blog though.  Will have some more posts up this week, but for now just a few random thoughts from the weekend.


1.  Referees:

I am the biggest referee apologist of all time.  I referee youth hockey and know how hard it is and hate to blame them for losses.  And of course, one play or one call does not determine the outcome of any game --- you had 59 other minutes in the game to get more points/make one more stop/whatever needed to be done.  But that call towards the end of the Georgia/LSU game was HORRIBLE and likely cost Georgia the win.  If you didn't see it, here is the scenario:

With 2:53 left in the game, Charles Scott of LSU scored to put the Tigers up 12-7.  LSU missed the 2-point conversion, so all Georgia had to do was score a touchdown to win.  And they did that just over a minute later with a FANTASTIC catch by superstar receiver A.J. Green.  Green was then inconceivably  flagged for a phantom excessive celebration call.  That pushed the ensuing kickoff back 15 yards.  On the kick, Georgia lined up with too few players on one side, and was forced back another five yards.  With a minute to go, LSU was already in position to kick a game winning field goal.  They didn't need it and scored a touchdown, but the fact that they were already in position was demoralizing for an already beat up defense.  Now, they also got an excessive celebration penalty that was absolute crap (though probably just a make up call for the botched Georgia call), but the effect from it was nothing compared.

The referee blew the call....plain and simple.  You are down a touchdown very late in the game and score what could be a winning touchdown!  Don't take it away from the kids.  I get it, they don't want anyone taking out a pen to sign the football (side note:  I cannot find that play on youtube anywhere), no cell phone out of the goalpost, nothing like that.  I get it, but that WAS NOT EXCESSIVE CELEBRATION!!!  What they want to get rid of is TAUNTING.  Not celebrating with your team and fans!

While we are on referees, did you see that horrible roughing the kicker call late in the Miami/Oklahoma game?????  What CRAP!  The guy rolled into the kicker having left his feet before the kick.  I get it, running into the kicker, five yard penalty, whatever.  But it was NOT a fifteen yard roughing penalty!

I know referees will miss calls.  I miss PLENTY calling hockey games.  But there are some beyond terrible calls that have been made this weekend, and something has to be done.  All we ask for is consistency.  If you are going to call it in the Georgia/LSU game, call it against Notre Dame late in their victory against Washington.  Hell, by comparison, their celebration should have been a 45 yard penalty!

2.  BCS Busters losing:

Normally, I hate non-BCS teams.  They just don't play schedules deserving of going to a national title game.  Last season Utah was as great story, but did not deserve to be in the national title game.  Maybe in a playoff system they could have won, but we will never know.  But Houston I thought might be different.  They have three "Big Six" conference teams on their schedule this year and had already beaten two of them.  And with the third Mississippi State, you have to assume they would have run through that part of the schedule.  But the Cougars slipped up this weekend losing to UTEP?  UTEP?!?!?!?!?!?!  Just goes to show you can NEVER truly understand how a football season is gonna shake out.  Get a trap game like that in between a couple of bigger games and anything can happen.  Only two BCS buster teams remain:  Boise State and TCU.  Boise should run the rest of the their schedule.  They nearly tripped up this weekend against UC Davis, but if they can win out impressively the rest of the way, they would possibly deserve a shot to go over anyone other than a major undefeated or a one loss SEC or Big-12 team.  TCU would have a strong case as well if they can manage to beat BYU and Utah after already beating Virginia and Clemson this season.  I still think Boise's resume will be slightly better, but it will be interesting if both teams win out.

3.  Top five teams

This season, there are really only three teams I see that are great teams:  Florida, Texas, and Alabama.  After that, I see major weaknesses with all the top teams.  LSU's offense is pretty anemic.  They nearly lost to Mississippi State and really should have.  Boise good story, but not a real top 5 team.  Virginia Tech got dominated by Bama even if the score didn't completely indicate it and nearly lost to Nebraska and probably should have.  Oklahoma is out with two losses now.  Don't sleep on USC either, they are looking good after their loss to Washington.  But if I had a ballot, I would see if they would let me skip positions 4-7 and just start back up with number 8.

4. Big East Busters

I realize the Big East gets an automatic bid into the BCS, but I never thought they deserved it given the teams within  their conference.  But this season, the top of the conference looks very tough.  #8 Cincinnati I'm afraid to say looks to be for real this season.  They did nearly get beat by Fresno State last weekend.  But other than that, they are playing some fantastic football and beating everyone they are supposed to by a lot.  And QB Tony Pike may well be the top Heisman candidate this season if you base it on play this year and not on previous seasons and preseason hype.  #23 South Florida may be as well.  Their schedule hasn't been the greatest this season, but they did beat FSU on the road and to be fair are killing their weaker opponents.  They lost QB Matt Grothe for the season, but B.J. Daniels seems to be stepping in just fine.


Thursday October 15th is likely to determine the Big East season when Cinci and USF play @ USF.  Cincinnati will only have West Virginia and Pitt as what I feel are good teams remaining on their schedule.  USF will still have those teams as well as a HUGE test against Miami Thanksgiving weekend.  If either team can survive and remain undefeated, It will be very hard to keep them out of the title game even over a one loss team from the SEC or Big-12.  Still a lot of football to be played.

Week 4 Recap

Here is a quick rundown of last week's top ten teams

1.  Florida W vs. Kentucky 41-7

One Word:  Domination.  495 yards vs. 179.  Florida jumped out to a 31-0 first quarter lead.  That's something I have a hard time doing in the NCAA 2010 football video games even when I use Florida!  The this game won't be remembered for the domination, it will be remembered for The Tebow Hit.  Late in the 3rd quarter, Tebow was sacked by Kentucky's Taylor Wyndham and had to be taken to the hospital where he remained overnight for observations.  Of course, Tebow also came into the game with the flu so it really was a bad week for him.  But with a bye week coming up, he should be, and by extension the Gators, should be fine before the LSU game.

2.  Texas W vs. UTEP 64-7

One word:  Domination.  After a couple weeks in a row of sluggish first half play, the Longhorns put a complete game together with this victory.  639 yards vs. just 53.  UTEP's only score of the day came on a 49 yard interception return.  The Horns only gave up 9 yards on the ground  McCoy a relatively pedestrian 28/35 286 yards 3 TD 1 INT.  Vondrell McGee had over 100 on the ground, and Jordan "Ghost" Shipley added 122 through the air.  Next up for Texas after a bye week is a date with Colorado before the all important Red River Rivalry vs. Oklahoma.

3.  Alabama W vs. Arkansas 35-7

Already had a full post on this game, but to review:  offense looked average other than the big plays, defense looked AMAZING, special teams better but need to keep the penalties down, especially on long kick and punt returns.  The kick coverage team has been better however which is Alabama's only real weakness to this point.  McElroy is a standout and might be the best QB in the SEC this year (and yes that includes Tebow) and Richardson is a budding superstar in the NCAA.  The only thing that will keep Richardson from a future Heisman trophy will be Mark Ingram.  But that is how Alabama has always done it, and it shouldn't ever change.  We are bigger than personal awards, its all about the team.  Next up for Alabama is a road trip Kentucky before what looked like a bigger match up last week:  a road trip to Oxford to play Ole Miss.  Make no mistake however, both games will be tough tests for the Tide. 

4.  Ole Miss L vs. South Carolina 10-16

Welcome back to earth Ole Miss.  It happens very often that a team with lofty preseason projections falls flat on their face in a game where they should win.  Usually, that happens to a team that is not used to those types of predictions (or USC).  And Thursday ESPN games tend to claim a lot of victims.  Ole Miss didn't look good in the game, but they are still a great SEC West team.  The October 10th home game vs. Alabama will show where Ole Miss really is in that division. 

5.  Penn State L vs. Iowa10-21

Almost half of SportsNation picked this as the top ten upset game of the week, and they were right.  Iowa came into the game having won 6-of-7 against Penn State, and now we can make it 7-of-8.  More importantly however, this loss pretty much takes Penn State out of the BCS title picture.  For a one loss Big 10 team to make it in, all the teams in the SEC and Big 12, and even USC, will have to end up with two losses.  That's not likely to happen.  Penn State jumped out to an early lead with a 79 yard pass from DAryll Clark to Chaz Powell the first time PSU touched the ball.  A field goal brought the lead up to 10-0 and it looked like Penn State was gonna roll.  But a safety and field goal by Iowa in the first half brought it back to a game.  But it was 16 4th quarter points by the Hawkeyes , led by a blocked punt for a touchdown, that put the game out of reach.  Even with the BCS title nearly out of reach, the Rose Bowl that comes with a Big 10 title is not.  Ohio State looked very good, and Michigan is clearly back, so it looks to be a very fun three way fight for the Big 10 title this year.  State has what should be a cakewalk road game against Illinois this weekend before a pair of tuneups vs. Eastern Illinois and Minnesota (which may be a relatively difficult game) before a big match up at the Big House vs Michigan. 

6.  Cal L vs. Oregon 3-42
 Cal, WTF?!?!?!?!  This was easily the biggest egg-laying performance of the weekend.  524 yards vs. 207.  Jahvid Best WAS the best running back in the nation and a possible Heisman front-runner, but only 55 yards on 16 carries is not going to get it down.  All Cal has to do is have an efficient performance by QB Kevin Riley to win games, but 12/31 for 123 is not the way to do it.  Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli finally rememberd how to play quarterback oing 21/25 for 253 and 3 touchdowns, his first on the season.  Cal opened the game well with a field goal in the first minute of the game...but after that.....yikes.  42 unanswered points for the Ducks destroyed the Bears.  It doesn't get much easier for Cal at this point however with a date with USC on the schedule this weekend.  Its ok Cal, at least you don't have to wear uniforms that look like that!

7.  LSU W vs. Mississippi State 30-26

Can't say much that went well for LSU in this one other than at least they got the win.   The Bulldogs bested LSU in first downs (21-12), and in total yards (374-263) but it really was turnovers that killed the Dawgs in this one.  Tyson Lee was just 15/38 for only 172 yards with 1 TD, but most importantly 3 costly turnovers.  A Patrick Peterson interception return for TD got the scoring kicked off for LSU, but MSU stormed right back with an Anthony Dixon TD run.  The teams traded touchdowns again in the first quarter before LSU scored on a 2nd quarter field goal.  State ahd the chance to take the lead at the end of the half with a chip shot field goal, but they elected to go for a touchdown, and it failed.  Down just two points early in the 4th, it looked like State might have a chance but a 93 yard punt return by Chad Jones put LSU in control.  MSU stomed back with a field goal to bring it to within 6, but an amazing goal line stand by LSU with 1 minute remaining the in the game ended all hope.  LSU took a purposeful safety with 51 seconds left, but State could not get the ball down the field and the Tigers survived.  It doesn't get any easier for the Tigers from here however with back to back games against the SEC East best Georgia Bulldogs and Florida Gators.

8.  Boise State W vs. Bowling Green 49-14

I hate to say it, but Boise State is legit again this year.  They have a quality win vs. Oregon - a team that just DEMOLISHED a supposedly great Cal team - and dominating performances against Miami (OH), Fresno State, and Bowling Green.  I don't know what to say about this team that hasn't already been said.  QB Kellen Moore is so smart and just athletic enough to be dangerous.  Moore went 17/21 for 247 and 2 TDs.  Running back Doug Martin had 100 on the ground too.  I'm sure I will say this every week, but there doesn't seem to be a way this team can lose in the regular season.  And if they win out, they will be in the BCS picture.

9.  Miami L vs. Virginia Tech 7-31

Miami must have started to believe their own hype going into this game.  All the media, including me, were saying how great this team is and that they were going to win the ACC.  Oops, we forgot about Virginia Tech.  After a loss to Alabama and a near loss to Nebraska, everyone seemed to forget about the Hokies.  Well, not anymore.  The Hokies still have plenty of issues in the passing game with Tyrod Taylor going just 4/9, but he wasn't needed very much.  Ryan Williams added 150 and 2 scores on the ground - Taylor had 75 of his own, and the defense help Miami to just 209 yards.  Jacory Harris, a possible Heisman candidate went just 9/25 for 150, Zero TDs and an INT.  If not for Cal, this would have been the WTF game of the game of the day.  But its not all bad for Miami.  Everyone pegged the Hurricanes 2-2 after their start of the season as what they needed to be on the way back, and they have already guaranteed that.  The bad news?  Game four is next weekend against Oklahoma with Sam Bradford possibly back in the lineup.  After the OU game it does get easier however with Florida A&M and UCF.  Clemson should be very winnable, as should Wake Forest, and Virginia is just terrible.  @ North Carolina will be tough, Duke will not be, and South Florida is a huge question mark.  Worst case for the Hurricanes:  7-5 and a bowl game.  Best case - 10-2 and possible at large BCS game.  All is not lost in Coral Gables.

10.  Oklahoma BYE

Oklahoma avoided the upset bug by simply being off for the weekend.  Next up is a date with the Hurricanes (and the potential return of Sam Bradford) before a tuneup against Baylor, and the big showdown with the Longhorns in Dallas on October 17th

Top ten will look VERY different for next weekend's Recap.  Check back all week for updates and PLEASE LEAVE COMMENTS

Week 3 Recap

Week 3 is in the books, and with it, some major shakeups at the top of the polls.  Here is a full top 10 rundown:

1.  Florida - W vs. Tennessee 23-13

Florida got the win which is good, but it wasn't very impressive.  Florida had multiple chances to blow the game away and they just didn't do it.  Florida looks very beatable, but still should be the number 1 team in the nation at this point.

2.  Texas - W vs. Texas Tech 34-24

The Horns got revenge for last season at least a little bit with this 34-24 victory.  Tech actually dominated in many statistical categories.  The glowing exception is on the ground (135- -6) but the Red Raiders did win the battle of total yards and doubled up the Horns through the air --- which isn't all that surprising.  Like the Gators, the Horns did not look as impressive as their ranking would indicate.  But its all about just getting those wins, especially in conference, and Texas never did trail in the game.  Solid #2 ranking, HOOK 'EM!

3.  USC - L vs. Washington 13-16

Wow.  Just wow.  We knew coming into this season that Washington was going to be a better team.  That's a given with Jake Locker coming back.  But being able to beat USC?!?!  Not a chance.  Washington did it was a patented formula however:  TURNOVERS.  USC led in total yards and out rushed the Huskies 250-56, but Locker gained 237 yards through the air and looked a proven leader under center.  I don't think Matt Barkley has ANYTHING to worry about in keeping his starting job.  Corp looked.....well pretty bad at best and horrible at worst.  The only thing the Trojans have in their favor is that they did lose early enough in the season that they can work their way back up into the national title picture IF they win out AND Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, AND both Florida and Alabama lose.  Even then, the SEC schools may have to lose twice to stay out of the game.

4.  Alabama W North Texas 53-7

Of all the top teams, BAMA looked the best.  Of course, the opponent was the worst as well.  I won't go into much detail here since my previous post is all about this game, but I just can't get over how well this offense looked in person.  At no point did I feel they could stop Alabama.  It really was a varsity vs. JV scrimmage out there.  The true test for Bama begins now though with the SEC portion of the schedule kicking in next week.


5.  Penn State W vs. Temple 31-6

I realize they haven't played anyone yet.  But, Penn State looks just as dangerous as they were last season and could find their way in the BCS title game if some things fall just right.  Evan Royster is starting to look the part of a leading running back and if he can keep that up, no one in the Big-10 will be able to stop Penn State this season. 


6.  Ole Miss W vs. Southeastern Louisiana 52-6

Well, OK, THIS team might have looked the best of any this weekend AND they played the truly weakest team as well  Even still, Ole Miss looks for real this year.  They had an early scare against Memphis but got the win and seem to be rolling towards the week 6 contest vs. Alabama in a game that may well go a long way in determining the SEC West champion.  Congrats to true freshman and Austin High School (in Decatur, AL) standout D.T. Shackelford for picking up two fumbles and scoring on a 58 yard INT for touchdown.  Ole Miss will be a tough out in the SEC this season.  Get a good look at this this Thursday night vs South Carolina.

7.  BYU L vs. Florida State L 28-54

Hard to say yet which is a bigger egg to lay:  USC or BYU, but there was no bigger thumping on the weekend than this game.  The Mormons never had the lead but did keep it close for a while but giving up ten points in the final 24 seconds of the first half really demoralized BYU and they just could not do anything in the second half.  Of course turning the ball over FIVE times doesn't do much to help either.  BYU's BCS busting hopes are likely done with this loss, but they can always take pride in thwarting the hopes of TCU later this year, and they can of course still win the conference title as well.  Lot to play for still at BYU, but a BCS berth is likely not among them.

8.  California W vs Minnesota 35-21

Cal is starting to hit their stride this year, and that's not good for the rest of the country.  Jahvid Best ran the ball 26 ties for 131 and FIVE touchdowns.  No longer just a fringe Heisman candidate, Best can lead this team to a Pac-10 title and maybe more if they can hold it together and get a win over USC later in the year.  USC still has more talent across the board, but now they have a lot less to play for.  All QB Kevin Riley has to do is NOT screw up and keep giving the ball to Best and this could be a great year.

9.  LSU W vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 31-3

Not too much to say here.  LSU did exactly what they were supposed to do in destroying Lafayette, but the stats don't really support that.  The Tigers gave up more than 100 yards on the ground but did only allow 163 through teh air.  They didn't pick up much more themselves though gaining only 330 total yards.  But the scoreboard shows a pretty dominant win, and that's all that really matters.  Does anyone else see a thee way tie scenario atop the SEC West a distinct possibility?  Let's hope their tiebreakers are better than those in the Big-12 if this happens.

10.  Boise State W vs. Fresno State 51-34

Already had a full post on this game so again, won't waste too much time here.  But Boise looks just fantastic and should make it to the BCS.  I may personally hate the Blue Ruggers, but they keep doing it year in and year out.  QB Kellen Moore just "looks" the part.  He is smart, has a great arm, and is just athletic enough to be dangerous.  I tell you what, with four weeks to prepare, I would NOT want to face Boise in a Bowl this season.  Lets hope they lay and egg somewhere this season.

Teams on the Move Up:

Miami, Auburn, Michigan, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida State, Cincinnati

Teams on the Move Down:

Georgia Tech, Utah, BYU, USC

Keep an eye out this week for my games of the week, picks of the week, Thursday Throwdown, and Friday Night Lights posts this week.  Could be a few surprise additions to the blog as well...keep reading.

Friday Night Lights: Bosie State @ Fresno State

Sorry for no pre game friday update....too busy partying down in Tuscaloosa getting ready for tomorrow!

Can't say I didn't see this one coming though.  Bosie just too talented.  Now what I didn't see coming was 3 long touchdown runs by Fresno's Matthews that kept it closer than it should have been for too long.

Now we have to face the real possibility that we will have another undefeated Bosie State team to bust into the BCS show.

IF Boise can run the table, I can't really say they don't deserve it...at least not  right now.  We have to see how good or bad Oregon ends up being, but a team that was supposed to maybe contend for a Pac-10 title got physically beaten down by the Blue Ruggers to start the season, they shut out the Miami Redhawks (which isn't that tough considering they haven't actually scored a point yet this season, but still),and this Fresno team very nearly beat Wisconsin and possibly should have had the refs called the helmet to helmet hit in overtime....a play that resulted in an interception. 

It's tough to see Boise NOT running the table at this point.  Wednesday October 14th @ Tulsa on ESPN will be a tough game to get by.  If they can get by that, they have a road test @ Hawaii on the 25th which shouldn't be a huge problem, four easy wins vs. San Jose State, LA Tech, Idaho, and Utah state, and then the only real tough test remaining:  a November 27th tilt against Nevada.  New Mexico State COULD be a tough finish but Boise won't let a team like that trip them up at the end of a season.  I like Bosie's chances to stay undefeated.

If Bosie can run the table, thats not a bad resume.  I still don't see them as a national title contender with a schedule like that, but enough to deserve a BCS bid.

Bottom line:  I hate to say it, but Boise, at least on offense, is for real.  Kellen Moore is one heck of a QB.  He is smart, has great pocket presence, and can make nearly all the throws and with him at the helm, Boise is for real.

Week 3 Picks

Each week after I give you my top five games of the week, I'll be giving my top picks too.  Didn't see a lot this week that jumped out at me, but here's what I have.

1.  Boise State -7 @ Fresno State (Friday Night Game)
Fresno is getting too much credit for nearly beating a bad Wisconsin team last week.  Boise utterly destroyed Oregon in week one.  I think Boise wins this game by three touchdowns 38-17

2.  East Carolina @ -7 North Carolina
Too much respect given to East Carolina, and its at home for the Heels.  I see a big win for UNC here

3.  Wyoming +7 @ Colorado
I struggled with this pick for a couple of reasons.  First, Wyoming kept it tight with Texas for a half but got out talented at the end.  Colorado doesn't have that talent.  But, Colorado really needs a huge win here to right the ship and get back on track.  I just don' think they do it.  Colorado may win the game, but it'll be within a touchdown

4.  SMU @ +6.5 Washington State
SMU hasn't had talent in twenty years.  Totally new offensive strategy in recent years that only hurts my pick if somehow they pull it together this year.  But I'm taking the odds.  The Washington schools hit rock bottom last season, and they have already begun to pull it together.  I look for State to win this one outright

5.  North Texas +38 @ Alabama
Listen, I love Alabama (obviously)  and I want the to crush poor little UNT.  But, they hardly ever do when it comes to big spreads like this.  And if they do, they are back door covers and the Tide did that once this year against Va Tech already.  To make my pick wrong, the Tide have to win by more than say 41-3 and I don't think it'll happen.  The North Texas coach used to coach Tide quarterback Greg McElroy in high school ---- he knows his strengths and weaknesses.  Won't be enough to stop him, but it will be enough to slow him down.  I look for about a 31 point Tide victory with the backups racking up a couple of late TDs again.

There you have it fellas.  Rip them apart, give me your own predictions, do whatever you want.  But someone give me SOMETHING that lets me know y'all are reading this blog.