Iron Bowl Wrap Up

Wow, what a great game!  I've had a couple of hours to digest the results, a couple of hours to restart my heart after the multiple heart attacks I had, and a couple of hours to begin my preparations for the SEC Title Game!

Raise your hand if you thought Auburn might jump out to an early two touchdown lead the way they did?

*crickets*

Yea, that's what I thought.  It was a nail-biter up until the very end.

Great job by the Alabama offense today, one of the better performances when it was needed this season.  Especially when Heisman contender Mark Ingram was ineffective at best, and just downright awful at worst.

Ingram:  The best running back in the nation.  Today, third best on the team behind Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch.  Richardson shows the nation that he will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.  As for Upchurch, what a moment for him to cap off his Alabama career (at least regular season) scoring the winning touchdown late in the game.

In my opinion, best Iron Bowl since 1996 - another late win for Alabama.  2004 was good too but Auburn really pulled away in the second half of that ballgame.

Team Stat Comparison
1st Downs	17	15
Total Yards	291	332
Passing	218	181
Rushing	73	151
Penalties	4-26	8-68
3rd Down Conversions	5-14	4-12
4th Down Conversions	0-1	0-0
Turnovers	0	2
Possession	33:47	26:13

Neither team hit their season average in yardage.  For Auburn, I expected that.  For Alabama, I expected a MUCH better running game than we got this afternoon.  Alabama gave up more than 100 yards over their average, and gave up 11 more points than their average of just under 10.

Bottom line:  A win is a win.  If you take out that one big 67 yard touchdown on the reverse run by Zachery, and and numbers begin to normalize a little bit more.  I have not seen a Bama defense give up big plays like this at all this season, and I don't like it.  This game was a formula for an upset,  but Alabama overcame that:

1.  On the road
2.  Rivalry
3.  Opponent coming off a bye
4.  Opponent with nothing to lose
5.  SI Cover Jinx (though it may have jinxed Ingram)

There is a reason Vegas sets the odds and I do not.  I would have bet the house, the farm, the car, and whatever else that Alabama would cover the spread this afternoon - and they did not.

I fear that maybe, MAYBE Ingram was starting to believe the hype.  He has been getting it from the media for weeks, he was on the Sports Illustrated cover this week, his boys back in Michigan created a song for his Heisman campaign, and back in Flint Michigan, today was Mark Ingram Day.  If he was gonna have a bad game, I would rather it had been today than next week against Florida.

On a more positive note, how about the play of Greg McElroy today!  Oft criticized as the offensive weak link, McElroy showed me just how valuable a leader he is tonight.   21/31 218 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Efficient and quality stats.  But to me, it is THE DRIVE that sets his day apart.

Alabama gets the ball down by one with 8:27 on the clock and 80 yards to go.  McElroy started the drive with an incompletion, but after that first play he went 7-for-7 for 63 yards and the critical 3rd down touchdown pass to Roy Upchurch.

McElroy has not lost a game as a starting quarterback since Middle School - AT LEAST!!! - I wasn't able to find his middle school stats.

Before today, people were comparing you to John Parker Wilson.  After today, calls of Jay Barker should begin to ring.

So bottom line:  it is a win.  Alabama will play in Atlanta, and they will play in a BCS game regardless of the outcome of the title game.  Will it be in Pasadena or in New Orleans is all that remains to be seen on that.  Ingram's injury does not appear to be serious, so he should be back.  His Heisman campaign took a serious hit today, but voters should not cast those ballots until they see what happens next Saturday night in the Georgia Dome.

Roll Tide!

Auburn Hate Week! Friday - GAME DAY Prediction

It's here!  The IRON BOWL is TODAY!

Before we get into the game, here is some pregame audio you need to listen to to get PUMPED for this game!  On paper, it might look like a blow out.  Not to mention if you just listen to talk radio or watch ESPN at all.  But lets take a look a little bit deeper.

The Offenses:

Statistically, both offenses have been very similar during the season, but Auburn's has been more potent:

Stat	Alabama	Ncaa Rank	Auburn	Ncaa Rank
Total Yards	418	30th	441.5	16th
Passing Yards	198	96th	234.7	54th
ushing Yards	225.6	10th	219.5	11th
Points Scored	32.2	24th	34	15th

Advantage:  Auburn

Auburn runs a spread offense led by Gus Malzahn, the former coach at Springdale High School in Arkansas, and at the University of Tulsa.  The jury is still out as to whether or not this offense will be more of a fad or a mainstay in college football.  Even with this spread style, Auburn loves to run the ball, but does throw it around some.  They still live on the ground though with Ben Tate and Ontario McCalebb.

Alabama runs a more traditional pro style offense, but there are a lot of Wildcat and Pistol formations thrown in.  Alabama's bread and butter is on the ground with two great backs in Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson.  Lets take a look at the running games of each school:

Player	Carries	Yards	Average	TD
Mark Ingram	205	1399	6.8	12
Trent Richardson	100	511	5.1	5
Ben Tate	225	1209	5.4	8
Onterio McCalebb	94	524	5.6	4

These two running games on paper are surprisingly similar.  Both have a more experienced lead back (Ingram, Tate) with a Freshman change of pace back getting a lot of fan attention (Richardson, McCalebb).  I give Alabama the advantage here, but it is closer than a lot of people think.  The possible X-Factor here is Kodi Burns.  Burns was thought to be the savior at quarterback, but that hasn't really panned out.  However, he has found a nice niche as a Wildcat style replacement quarterback gaining 154 yards with 4 touchdowns.  Although, much of that came early in the season.  Since then, Burns has moved over to receiver.

It is important to note on offense however, that even though Auburn dominates the statistical categories accross the board, in the team's six common opponents (MSU, UT, Arkansas, UK, LSU, and Ole Miss) Alabama out-gained Auburn against that same opponent three times.

Defense:

Up to now, this game looks like it might be pretty even.  But here is where Alabama will begin to separate itself:

Stat	Alabama	Ncaa Rank	Auburn	Ncaa Rank
Points Per Game	9.9	2nd	27	78th
Yards Per Game	225.2	1st	359.2	56th
Pass Yards Per Game	154.64	5th	189.45	28th
Rush Yards Per Game	70.54	2nd	169.72	88th

Advantage:  Alabama (Duh!)

Wow, those stats are even more amazing than I thought before I compiled them.  Alabama is in the top 5 in all major defensive statistical categories, and Auburn doesn't crack the top 25 in any of them.  Alabama is 10th in the nation in rushing, and Auburn is 88th at giving it up --- wow.  Alabama has not given up a 100 yard rusher in 33 games.  "The Law Firm" of Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis for Ole Miss in 2007 was the last back to accomplish the feat against Alabama.

Here is a look at the Alabama projected starting defense:

Player	Position	Height	Weight	Class
Lorenzo Washington	DE	6-5	290	SR
Brandon Deaderick	DE	6-4	287	SR
Terrance Cody	DT/NT	6-5	365	SR
Cory Reamer	LB	6-4	234	SR
Eryk Anders	LB	6-2	227	SR
Rolando McClain	LB	6-4	258	JR
Nico Johnson	LB	6-3	225	FR
Javier Arenas	CB	5-9	198	SR
Kareem Jackson	CB	5-11	192	JR
Mark Barron	S	6-2	215	SO
Justin Woodall	S	6-2	220	SR

Wow, that is a STOUT defense!  There is a reason this is one of the best units, probably the best unit, in the nation.  If Alabama can complete the undefeated season, this may go down as one of the best defenses in NCAA history.  But there are still three games to go before we can talk about anything like that.  Only one problem here:  LOOK AT ALL THE SENIORS on the list.  7 Seniors, and 2 Juniors that have the ability to leave early - if not both Jackson and McClain, at least McClain can leave early and will be a top 15 draft pick, possible top 5.  In that starting 11, I see at least 8 players that can make impacts on NFL rosters soon.  Really, I don't see anyone that couldn't, but there probably isn't a starting 11 anywhere that had EVERYONE play in the NFL, not even those great USC teams in the 2000's. But that isn't a problem for the rest of this season, that is only a problem for next year.  At this point though, Alabama doesn't really need to "rebuild" after a good season, they simply just "reload". 

Special Teams:

So special teams may not be worth any fancy table like the other stats, but it is still worth noting.  Leigh Tiffin leads Alabama in scoring (and is now the school's all-time leader in points as well) with 109 going 25-28 on field goal attempts on the season.  He has not missed since he missed 2 kicks vs. South Carolina 5 games ago.  And while on special teams, we have to talk about Javier Arenas.  He holds the SEC record for most kick return touchdowns, and is only 100 yards away from becoming the SEC all time kick return yardage leader.  For Auburn Wes Byrum is perfect on extra points on the season and only has one field goal miss.  Byrum has been statistically great his whole career, while Tiffin has been often criticized until this season.  On kick returns - I have no idea who Auburn uses, and I really don't care - he won't be better than Arenas.

Advantage:  Alabama

Prediction:
Classic SEC slug-fest on the ground all afternoon.  The Alabama defense vs. the Auburn offense will be the match-up to watch, and if you MUST turn away from the TV, do it during the Alabama offense vs. Auburn defense portion of the game.  According to Vegas, Alabama is a 10 or 10.5 point favorite.  According to bodog, that line started out with Alabama a 12.5 point favorite, and it has gone DOWN since.  Last week on Gametime, I predicted a three touchdown advantage for Alabama - or at least 17 points.  This number looks to be a sucker bet to me.  I know, I know, "It's a rivalry game, you never know."  "It's on the road, and Auburn always plays well at home."  "A win here makes Auburn's season, they can play loose and takes more risks."  "Those Auburn kids are out to PROVE they deserved Alabama scholarship offers."  "Our defense has caught some bad breaks, we are better than we have looked."  "Don't forget about the SI cover Jinx!  "Remember 20 years ago when Bama was #2 and lost on the Plains?"  I've heard it all, I just don't buy any of it.

Auburn may well take an early lead in this game, that would not surprise me.  It will be one of the best offenses Alabama has faced all season.  But it will not last.  I like Alabama to take control of the game early on the strength of Mark Ingram's legs and never look back.  Ingram will be good for 130 and 2 touchdowns.  McElroy will hit the 200 yard mark with one touchdown, and Tiffin will hit 2-3 field goals.  I think Auburn gets an early 3-0 lead and scores a late touchdown to bring the game closer than it needs to be, but in the end Alabama will be way too strong for the Tigers this afternoon.

Alabama will roll on to Atlanta undefeated for a Clash of the Titans 8 days from now!

Alabama 27 Auburn 10.

Auburn Hate Week! Thursday - Alums, Co-Eds, Cheerleaders

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  I thought for the holiday I would take a slightly more lighthearted approach to the Iron Bowl and compare the Alumni and the female hotness at both Universities.

Alumni:

 For a "Cow College", Auburn has a lot of Technical and Engineering Alums.

Non Athlete Alumni:

1. Walter Riggs - Father of Clemson Football
2. Alvin Vogtle - Fighter Pilot and Inspiration for Steve McQueen Character
3. Hank Harsfield - Shuttle Astronaut - Featured in The Dream is Alive
4. Clifton Williams - Gemini and Apollo Astronaut - Killed flying T-38 Aircraft
5. Fob James - Alabama Govenor
6. Ken Mattingly - Apollo and Shuttle Astronaut - Famous for getting booted from Apollo 13 flight
7. James Voss - Shuttle Astronaut
8. Kathryn Thornton - Shuttle Astronaut (I add her because I work with her neice)
9. Jan Davis - Shuttle Astronaut
10. Jimmy Wales - co-founder of Wikipedia
11. Taylor Hicks - American Idol (Attended but did not graduate)
    
12. Jimmy Buffet - Singer (Attended but did not graduate)

Pretty good list.  Lot of space flight on there.  How about Alabama? On their Wikipedia page, their list has to be broken down by category there are so many!

1. Winston Groom - Author Forest Gump
2. Harper Lee - Author To Kill a Mockingbird
3. Kathryn Scott - First female band director in United States
4. Bernard Madoff - Ponzi Scheme dude - (I DIDN'T KNOW HE WENT TO BAMA!!)
5. Jim Nabors - Actor
6. Sela Ward - Acress
7. Bob Riley - Governor
8. Jess Sessions - Senator
9. Richard Shelby - Senator
10. Don Sigelman - Governor
11. George Wallace - Governor

Advantage:  Push

If you like politics, then Alabama is your place.  You pretty much have to be a member of one of the Machine fraternities or sororities to get anywhere, but it is possible.  If you like engineering and Space Travel, Auburn may well be your place.  I want to give this to Alabama, but given my current "real" job where I teach about Space, I'll have to at least bring this to a push

What About Athletic Alumni?

Auburn:

1. Charles Barkley
2. Bo Jackson
3. Ronnie Brown
4. Frank Thomas (baseball)
   
5. Vince Dooley
6. Shug Jordan
7. Kevin Greene
8. Carnell "Cadillac" Williams
9. Jason Campbell
10. Carlos Rodgers
11. Kristy Coventry (Olympic swimming Gold Medalist)
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Tim Hudson (baseball)

Not a bad list, Here is Alabama:

1. Paul W. "Bear" Bryant
2. Joe Namath
3. Ken Stabler
4. Bart Starr
5. Dwight Stephenson
6. John Hannah
7. Don Hutson
8. Ozzie Newsome
9. Derrick Thomas
10. Cornelius Bennett
11. Shaun Alexander
12. Chris Samuels
13. DeMeco Ryans
14. Glen Coffee
15. Roman Harper (I HAD A CLASS WITH HIM!)
    
16. Antwan Odom
17. Rece Davis (Sportscaster ESPN)
    
18. Mo Williams (Basketball)
19. Latrell Sprewell (Basketball)
20. Mel Allen (The Voice of the Yankees)
21. Terin Humphrey (Olympic Silver Medalist - Gymnastics)
22. Anne Poleska - Olympic Bronze Medalist - Swimming (I HAD A CLASS WITH HER!)

Advantage:  Alabama

I didn't even write out all the good Alabama names I found.  You can look at the complete list here for Auburn and Alabama.

Thats all well and good and I'm glad we got the serious stuff out of the way.  Now, its time for the Women!

There is no good way to determine which school has the best looking girls.  They are both fantastic.  I'm just using the small sampling of photos I've been able to find online of girls wearing the gear from each school.

Alabama:

 

Pretty good Quality for Alabama.  Now, Auburn:

dsfsdf

Advantage:  Auburn

Not really that I think the Auburn chicks are cuter, because they really aren't.  I love my Crimson Chicks!  But, Auburn girls were easier to find on a google image search.

The Cheerleaders:

Funny cheerleader story.  At the 2003 Iron Bowl, ESPN interviewed an Alabama male cheerleader who on national television confessed he grew up an Auburn fan and was rooting for Auburn despite being an Alabama cheerleader.  The next day, he was off the team.  But, there will be no male cheerleaders here.  Time for more SEC women:

Auburn:

And Alabama:

Advantage:  Alabama

Much like the Auburn co-ed search:  The Alabama cheerleaders were MUCH easier to find online quickly.  Plus they amazingly gorgeous.  Even though those candid shots of the girls rolling around on the grass are great, they are still Auburn and I have to throw up a little bit when I see them.

That's it for today!  Happy Thanksgiving, continue hating Auburn!  ROLL TIDE!

ONE MORE DAY!!!!!!

Tomorrow's Post:  Game Analysis and prediction