Possible BCS Scenarios:

Week 12 is in the books, at least with the games that matter.  With two weeks to go in the season, there are alot of things that can still happen.  But its fun to talk about this a little bit early.

It has never been the BCS's goal to get all of their matchups to be great.  They only care about getting the best two teams and playing them in the title game.  But, they would like to get some quality matchups.

Here is a list of how the teams are selected and in what order.  It is kind of confusing so here is a synopsis:

1.  Champions of the six major conferences get auto bids

2.  If a Mid-Major finishes in the top 12, they get an automatic bid.  BUT they are only obligated to take one mid major.  They also get an auto bid in the top 16 if they finish ahead of another conference champion.  This will only matter if there are some major upsets next week.

3.  ND gets one if they finish in the top 8 ---- FAIL

Here is how the pool of at large teams is picked from:

1.  have at least 9 wins and finish in the top 14 of the BCS rankings

Ok, all well and good.  Now here is how they are selected

1.  Rose Bowl :  Big 10 and Pac 10 champ
2.  Sugar Bowl:  SEC champ
3.  Orange Bowl:  ACC champ
4.  Fiesta Bowl:  Big 12 champ
5.  BCS Title:  #1 vs #2

When one of those games loses its champion to the title game, they get first selection among the at large and other automatic qualifying teams.

Here is how the bowls will shake out for sure:

1.  Rose:  Ohio State vs. Oregon/Oregon State
2.  Sugar:  Florida/Alabama vs. ??????
3.  Orange:  Georgia Tech/Clemson vs. ??????
4.  Fiesta:  ????? vs. ?????
5.  National Title game:  Florida/Alabama vs. Texas

With TCU and either Cinci or Pitt qualifying automatically, there are now two at large selections available.  Keep in mind, you cannot have more than two teams from the same conference.  Here is a list of the current BCS teams with at large possibilities and their projected rankings tomorrow:

6.  Boise State
8.  Pittsburgh
11:  Oklahoma State
12:  Iowa
13.  Penn State
14:  Virginia Tech

Just outside:
15.  LSU
16.  USC

Wildcards:

If Oregon State beats Oregon and gets the Automatic bid, Oregan will drop by POSSIBLY not out of the top 14.  Same if Clemson beats Georgia Tech in the ACC title game.

LSU may not drop out of the top 14 which would take Va Tech out of the top 14, but LSU can't go anyways because both Alabama and Florida will be going.

Here is the selection order assuming the national title game is the SEC vs. Texas:

1.  Sugar Bowl (loses Florida or Alabama - that team will be number 1)
2.  Fiesta Bowl (loses Texas - will be number 2)
3.  Orange Bowl
4.  Fiesta Bowl
5.  Sugar Bowl

1.  Sugar bowl will take the SEC title game loser with the first pick

2.  It gets very tricky with the fiesta bowl.  I think if Oklahoma State is available (they have to beat OU first) they will keep the conference tie in.

3.  The Orange Bowl already has the ACC champ.  They do not HAVE to take an AQ team since there are two bowls left, so they have their choice.  I see Penn State getting the obvious nod here.  They would travel the best of the remaining teams.  They could take the big east winner, and might if it is Pitt, but I doubt it.

4.  Fiesta Bowl:  Have to take either TCU or the Big east champion here, and TCU just makes too much sense

5.  Sugar Bowl:  must take Big East winner as the bottom of the barrel selection.




So it is up to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl to take Boise State if anyone is going to do it.  The Fiesta bowl knows better than anyone how Boise's fans travel.  I am assuming not very well compared to the bigger fan bases.  And the Orange Bowl has its interests to protect.  Why subject your ACC team to that type of game AGAIN?!?!  .

So undefeated and mostly untested Boise State will get left out of the BCS.  As an at large, they don't have the fan base, they don't carry the national audience, and the big wigs of the big bowls will not want them at the party.  Fans want to watch the big boys.  This is fact, backed up by EVERY television audience poll.  Message board chatter may increase with the underdogs, but the myth of "everyone wants an underdog" is crap.  You may want it to happen, but you don't want to watch it happen.  You want to watch Alabama vs. Texas.  You don't care about TCU vs. Boise State.  This is not opinion, this is fact.

What do you think?  Should Boise be in somewhere?

Week 7 Musings and Wrap Up

As I write this a couple of games are still going on but the week is mostly done.  Couple of thoughts.  Starting at the top of the polls:

1.  Florida great team but has some weaknesses

If I had a ballot, I would still be voting Florida number 1.  I love this Alabama team and am excited for a possible 1 vs 2 match up in Atlanta for the SEC title game, but Florida is a great team.  I think Tebow is still feeling some ill effects from the concussion and is just not himself yet.  Spikes has been hurt, Joe Haden has been hurt so that is two leaders off of that defense that have been out.  But two straight games with low offensive output gives hope for everyone else in the SEC that Florida might be beatable.  Florida gave up nearly as many points today as they had all season so far (20 today, 32 all year).  I think if Florida and Alabama played today, Florida would come in 2 point favorites, and it would be a defensive slugfest 13-10 type of game.  But more on Alabama in a bit.

2.  Texas - not a great team right now, but lot of promise

If Texas doesn't find a way to run the ball better, this is going to be a long end of the season for the longhorns.  Good news is that they just jumped their biggest hurdle today in Oklahoma.  They needed some lucky calls, turnovers, and an injury to Sam Bradford to do it though.  McCoy ended up with some ok numbers of 21/39 127 yards 1 TD 1 INT, but that is very unlike the QB that throws mostly short passes for a great than 70% completion percentage.  Of course when you can stop the run, you are a good team.  And i think allowing -16 rushing yards is pretty good.  When your second "leading" rusher has -2 yards, the defense did something right.  Back to back weeks on the road against Missouri and Oklahoma State over the next two weekends will go a long way in determining the season.  If they win these two, I don't see another team that can stop Texas until the BCS title game.

3.  Alabama - Showing Weakness?

I have been saying since Week 4 against Arkansas that Alabama isn't a great offensive team.  Sure, they won that game going away and are undefeated, but its not because of their offense.  McElroy hasn't had a great outing in a few weeks.  Certainly not in the past two games, but I don't think he has looked great since the North Texas game.  He relied on big plays against Arkansas which like I said at the time is not good long term, and against Kentucky he didn't show much until the last drive of the first half.
Of course the glowing exception to all of this is the running game, specifically Mark Ingram.  Ingram ran for 246 yards and one touchdown against South Carolina tonight including EVERY yard on the game clinching, clock killing 4th quarter drive.  EVERY play was either a direct snap or hand off to Ingram on that drive.  South Carolina knew what was coming, and they still couldn't stop it.  When the Heisman lists start coming out tomorrow and Monday, expect to see that name all over them.  But on defense, there is not another defense in the nation that is better than Alabama, and only Florida comes even close.  There may be 10 NFL players on that defense when all is said and done.  Hightower goes down, we replace him.  Arenas goes down, and we just fill in with another guy without missing a beat.

4.  Heisman --- do we have a leader?

Here are some of the top contenders:

1.  Tebow - not looking like himself
2.  McCoy - not looking like himself
3.  Pike - possibly injured
4.  Bradford - injured
5.  Clausen - possible contender (much as I hate to admit it)
6.  Best - He has sucked lately

I don't see anyone else other than now Mark Ingram.  Ingram has 905 yards, 3rd in the nation.  All the stats haven't been compiled yet, but his YPA will certainly go up, he added his 8th TD, he is also a weapon coming out of the backfield.  I don't see how anyone else can be considered a better candidate at this point in the season.  Notre Dame is not a good team, so that will kill Clausen's chances before the year is out.  No one on USC is good enough right now.  Tebow and McCoy will still be the favorites until their team's lose, but they are not having seasons worthy of Heisman consideration.  I do not think Ingram will win it no matter how well he does since there is no national campaign for him right now, but if he keeps this up he will have the stats for it.

5.   First BCS standings come out tomorrow:

It may be a meaningless mile marker, but the BCS standings will be out tomorrow.  Teams that start the standings 1 and 2 VERY rarely play each other in the BCS title game, and this season is likely to be no different.  Since Florida and Alabama would be very hard pressed to play in the SEC and BCS title games, its not gonna happen.  Here is what the Standings may look like, going by the Brad Edwards Mock BCS standings from last week and taking out some of the losing teams:

1.   Florida
2.   Alabama
3.   Texas
4.   Boise State
5.   USC
6.   LSU
7.   Cincinnati
8.   Iowa
9.   Miami
10. Georgia Tech

I think USC and LSU should both be ahead of Boise given their schedule and the way they have handled it this season.  They need to be KILLING people since they play no one but they don't do that.

Georgia Tech is a big of a stretch since they were 19th and 20th in the polls this weekend, but a good win over a very toug Virginia Tech team should be enough to jump them into the top 10.  Officially they are 2nd in the Coastal division, but if they are able to beat Virginia this weekend, they will have the head to head victory over every divisional contender on the season with a game at Duke all that remains.  In fact, the Yellow Jackets shouldn't be tested again until Thanksgiving weekend against Georgia.  Are they a dark horse BCS contender?

Iowa may be a team to watch out for this season.  They still have a game against Ohio State remaining, but they have a lot of the standard formula for a great team.  Good running game, veteran QB, and a stout defense.  Only time will tell

6.  Looking ahead to next weekend.

Not much doing for the midweek games sadly enough.  Florida State @ North Carolina on Thursday night may have looked better in the preseason but won't be for much right now.  Only matchup between ranked teams is likely to be TCU vs. BYU.  This is a big one for those who like BCS Busters vs. Those of us who do not.  Boise State travels to Hawaii in another BCS Buster special.  That game will be online @ ESPN360.com.  LSU vs. Auburn is usually a big matchup, but not so much this year at least not nationally.  But, it may be one of my favorite weeks of the season because.......

7.  IT'S TENNESSEE WEEK!!!!

God do I HATE Tennessee!  I had to root for them to beat Auburn a few weeks ago and it just made me sick to do it.  I cannot stand those Viles.  Maybe its only because I only know UT of the Phil Fulmer years.  I know the rivalry used to be about respect.  I know you always wanted to beat UT, but you didn't hate them.  All the old coaches would say "You find out how much of a man you are by how you play against Tennessee (or Alabama coming from the other side)."  But I don't know THAT Tennessee.  I only know the Tennessee of Fulmer and the "secret witness."  I will talk more this week about the Tennessee week and what it means to Alabama, but that's a little taste right now.

For the Alabama fans that read this blog:  Who do you hate more:  Auburn, Tennessee, or someone else?  I know LSU and Florida are hated too