Possible BCS Scenarios:

Week 12 is in the books, at least with the games that matter.  With two weeks to go in the season, there are alot of things that can still happen.  But its fun to talk about this a little bit early.

It has never been the BCS's goal to get all of their matchups to be great.  They only care about getting the best two teams and playing them in the title game.  But, they would like to get some quality matchups.

Here is a list of how the teams are selected and in what order.  It is kind of confusing so here is a synopsis:

1.  Champions of the six major conferences get auto bids

2.  If a Mid-Major finishes in the top 12, they get an automatic bid.  BUT they are only obligated to take one mid major.  They also get an auto bid in the top 16 if they finish ahead of another conference champion.  This will only matter if there are some major upsets next week.

3.  ND gets one if they finish in the top 8 ---- FAIL

Here is how the pool of at large teams is picked from:

1.  have at least 9 wins and finish in the top 14 of the BCS rankings

Ok, all well and good.  Now here is how they are selected

1.  Rose Bowl :  Big 10 and Pac 10 champ
2.  Sugar Bowl:  SEC champ
3.  Orange Bowl:  ACC champ
4.  Fiesta Bowl:  Big 12 champ
5.  BCS Title:  #1 vs #2

When one of those games loses its champion to the title game, they get first selection among the at large and other automatic qualifying teams.

Here is how the bowls will shake out for sure:

1.  Rose:  Ohio State vs. Oregon/Oregon State
2.  Sugar:  Florida/Alabama vs. ??????
3.  Orange:  Georgia Tech/Clemson vs. ??????
4.  Fiesta:  ????? vs. ?????
5.  National Title game:  Florida/Alabama vs. Texas

With TCU and either Cinci or Pitt qualifying automatically, there are now two at large selections available.  Keep in mind, you cannot have more than two teams from the same conference.  Here is a list of the current BCS teams with at large possibilities and their projected rankings tomorrow:

6.  Boise State
8.  Pittsburgh
11:  Oklahoma State
12:  Iowa
13.  Penn State
14:  Virginia Tech

Just outside:
15.  LSU
16.  USC

Wildcards:

If Oregon State beats Oregon and gets the Automatic bid, Oregan will drop by POSSIBLY not out of the top 14.  Same if Clemson beats Georgia Tech in the ACC title game.

LSU may not drop out of the top 14 which would take Va Tech out of the top 14, but LSU can't go anyways because both Alabama and Florida will be going.

Here is the selection order assuming the national title game is the SEC vs. Texas:

1.  Sugar Bowl (loses Florida or Alabama - that team will be number 1)
2.  Fiesta Bowl (loses Texas - will be number 2)
3.  Orange Bowl
4.  Fiesta Bowl
5.  Sugar Bowl

1.  Sugar bowl will take the SEC title game loser with the first pick

2.  It gets very tricky with the fiesta bowl.  I think if Oklahoma State is available (they have to beat OU first) they will keep the conference tie in.

3.  The Orange Bowl already has the ACC champ.  They do not HAVE to take an AQ team since there are two bowls left, so they have their choice.  I see Penn State getting the obvious nod here.  They would travel the best of the remaining teams.  They could take the big east winner, and might if it is Pitt, but I doubt it.

4.  Fiesta Bowl:  Have to take either TCU or the Big east champion here, and TCU just makes too much sense

5.  Sugar Bowl:  must take Big East winner as the bottom of the barrel selection.




So it is up to the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl to take Boise State if anyone is going to do it.  The Fiesta bowl knows better than anyone how Boise's fans travel.  I am assuming not very well compared to the bigger fan bases.  And the Orange Bowl has its interests to protect.  Why subject your ACC team to that type of game AGAIN?!?!  .

So undefeated and mostly untested Boise State will get left out of the BCS.  As an at large, they don't have the fan base, they don't carry the national audience, and the big wigs of the big bowls will not want them at the party.  Fans want to watch the big boys.  This is fact, backed up by EVERY television audience poll.  Message board chatter may increase with the underdogs, but the myth of "everyone wants an underdog" is crap.  You may want it to happen, but you don't want to watch it happen.  You want to watch Alabama vs. Texas.  You don't care about TCU vs. Boise State.  This is not opinion, this is fact.

What do you think?  Should Boise be in somewhere?

Week 11 Games of the Week

Couple of good matchups this weekend to hold our attention, and one that usually does, but is an afterthought this season.  That matchup is....

5.  Auburn @ Georgia 6:00 PM CST ESPN

This game is a funny match up.  One of the oldest rivalries in major college football which usually goes a long way in determining the SEC standings, despite being an inter-divisional matchup.  Both teams are usually in the top 10 or 15, if not top 5 in the rankings, but this season both are un-ranked.  Auburn has a better resume on the season so far, but Georgia probably has more overall talent outside of the quarterback position.  Good thing for Georgia Auburn's quarterback isn't very good either.  Auburn leads Georgia in most every major offensive statistical category, yet UGA comes in the favorites.  Auburn's Chis Todd is hitting nearly 60% of his passes and has an amazing 17-3 TD-INT ratio.  Joe Cox also has 17 TD, but it goes against 12 INTs.    Auburn's Ben Tate is clearly the most experienced back in the game, but Georgia's Washaun Ealey is coming along nicely but hasn't shown he can do it for a full season yet.  A.J. Green is the best receiver in college football, but Auburn's Darvin Adams has more TD receptions on the year.  Auburn leads on paper, but Georgia will win on the scoreboard in the end.  Its at home, and I like the Dawg defense a whole lot more than I like the Auburn defense.  17-13 Georgia.

4.  #1 Florida @ South Carolina 2:30 PM CBS

If CBS thinks this is the top SEC game of the week, then it must be a good one.  And it will be.  Steve Spurrier may coach USCe, but his heart is, and always will be, at Florida.  His name is on the walls at the stadium.  But while he loves them, he wants nothing more than to beat them..  Tebow gets all the publicity, but Stephen Garcia actually has mostly better numbers this season.  Garcia has nearly 2500 passing yards to go with 13 touchdowns and 6 picks.  Tebow has just 1500 yards, but is hitting on more than 65% of his passes.  Neither team has a true leader at running back, and South Carolina has a budding superstar in Alshon Jeffery at receiver.  But the SEC almost always comes down to defense, and South Carolina doesn't have the horses to get it done.  I don't see a 16 point Florida win like Vegas does, but I"m thinking a good quality 27-17 win.

3.  #25 West Virginia @ #4 Cincinnati FRIDAY NIGHT 7:00 ESPN

This game only gets as high as it gets because both teams come into the game ranked.  This game is a major question mark type of game.  Cincinnati comes into the game with BCS and possible national championship dreams.  West Virginia comes in two weeks off a surprising loss to South Florida, but still controlling its own destiny in the Big East race.  The key difference in these two teams is that West Virginia has been up near the top before, Cincinnati has not.  This game marks the first a three game stretch for Cinci that will determine their season as the Bearcats finish the season with West Virginia, Illinios, and Pitt.  All three games are winnable, but all are tough.  And Cinci will be without starting QB Tony Pike for at least part of the game.  Although that may not be horrible since Zach Collaros has more than filled in nicely hitting on more than 75% of his passes and with a 10-1 TD-INT ratio.  West Virginia has one of the most talented backs in the nation in Noel Devine.  If you haven't checked out his highlights on youtube, do yourself a favor and do it.  That kid is electric in the backfield and is likely the next Darren Sproles in the NFL.  Cincinnati comes in as 9 point favorites, but mid week ESPN games are famous for upsets and I like West Virginia to pull it off here 35-31.

2.  #10 Iowa @ #11 Ohio State 2:30 PM ABC

This game is probably the defacto conference title game at this point.  Both teams have one conference loss, but both losses comes to teams out of contention for the title.  The winner of this game could still stumble, but I think the winner of this game will go to the Rose Bowl.  Iowa were the darlings of the nation until last week, the "Cardiac Kids" if you will, but that is over.  The 4th quarter was "Stanzi Time,"  but Stanzi is now out for the year with an ankle injury.  He may be back for the Bowl game though.  Ohio State has some of the top talent in the nation and do every year.  They do have a pair of losses, but one was to USC which is understandable, but the other is Purdue which is less than understandable.  And remember, Iowa shouldn't have won probably half the games they did this season.  I like Ohio State in a BIG way on Saturday.  They are favored by 17 and I find it hard to believe they won't cover that.  I like the Buckeyes 35-10.

1.  #16 Utah @ #4 TCU 7:30 PM (Not listed on ESPN's lineup, but probably on VS.)

Ok, you know how I HATE the mid major teams.  And I do.  But Gameday has chosen this game, but I'll give it some props.  Plus, this is TCU's first home sellout EVER.  The Horned Frogs will be ready.  I'll admit that I don't know alot about either of these teams.  But I do know that TCU is undefeated and their offense is clicking at the right time.  I always hate the mid majors for "not playing anybody."  And while its not a murders row by any stretch of the imagination, but the Frogs have played two major conference opponents on the road at Virginia and Clemson, and have also gone on the road to defeat BYU.  And with their other opponents, they are typically killing them by double digits and haven't really been "in" any game other than Clemson and maybe Air Force all year.  I still HATE Utah for what they did against Alabama last season, but this is the last true test for TCU before finishing an undefeated regular season.  My two hates have come together in one game, but I will be rooting for TCU in the game.  TCU will be favored by 20, but I don't see them covering it.  I see a slim victory to the tune of 20-16, but I would not be surprised if they fall to the hype and get tripped up on their undefeated bid here.

Those are the games of the week.  Too bad I won't get to see any of them since I have to work from 630AM until around 10:00 PM, but everyone else enjoy the weekend and have a drink for me!