Week 7 Picks of the Week

1.  Virginia Tech - 3.5 @ Georgia Tech 5:00 PM ESPN2


Already talked about this game in the games of the week post so I won't dwell on it.  But Va Tech's offense is just too explosive to be stopped.  The Hokies will will convincingly

2.  USC - 10 @ Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC

Again, already talked about this one.  USC has all the skills, Notre Dame is weak.  Jimmy Clausen has his name on some Heisman lists, but that is all about to change.  Golden Tate will be doubled all day and that will take away most of The Domer's offense. USC may not be as explosive as in years past, but you won't find many more technically sound football teams out there.

3.  Illinois - 2.5 @ Indiana 6:00 PM Big Ten Network

Coming into the season, this game probably looked like a 20+ point Illinois advantage.  To be close to a pick'em game like this is nothing short of amazing.  Indiana has no talent whatsoever.  Pretty good numbers by the quarterback Ben Chappell with a 65% completion percentage, but with less than 7 yards per attempt, they don't exactly throw much other than easily completed balls.  And a 40 point loss to Virginia doesn't give me much to hope for.  Illinois on the other hand is full of talent, just not full of results yet this year.  They are just 1-4, but all four losses have been to very good football teams in Missouri, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State.  Arrelious Benn is still without a touchdown catch this season which is nothing short of amazing.  QB Juice Williams has just two TD passes this season, but one each in the last two games and he is getting back on track.  His performance against Michigan State was....well....bad however.  I think this is the game where they really put it all together and I see a 24-12 victory.

4.  Miami -14.5 @ Central Florida 6:30 PM

I know nothing about Central Florida this season, and that's just the point.  I know alot about Miami, and I like what I've seen outside of the Virginia Tech game.  Jacory Harris was a possible Heisman leader earlier in the year but has dropped off a bit.   He does have ten touchdown passes this season, but it is against already 7 picks.  Javarris James and Graig Cooper carry the load at running back and through the air, four receivers have double digits in catches with another sitting at 9.  This is a very good though not yet great Miami team.  I don't see them giving up much for points in this 41-10 win.

5.  Texas A&M -6 @ Kansas State 6:00 PM

K. State is 3-3 with wins against....well....no one.  They squeaked by again UMASS opening weekend, lost to Louisiana-Lafayette the next and got pretty much dominated by UCLA after that.  They did kill Tennessee Tech but just barely squeaked by Iowa State before getting smoked by Texas Tech.  There really is nothing to love about this team.  The Aggies have stumbled as of late, but make no mistake about it, they are a very good football team.  Getting dominated by Arkansas is no crime, that's a great football team.  And Oklahoma State is very good.  Quarterback Jerrod Johnson has a stunning 14-0 TD-INT ratio and is hitting 60% of his passes.  The Yards/Attempt average is a little low however.  Cyrus Gray leads the team in carries, but has under a five yard average.  7 Aggies have at least 10 catches this season.  I see a huge win for Texas A&M, maybe to the tune of 45-13.

Week 7 Games of the Week

We have five games between top 25 teams this weekend.  Great Weekend for some college football.

5.  #8 Cincinnati @ #21 South Florida Thursday Night 6:30 PM CDT EPSN

The likely de-facto Big East championship game happens tonight!  I know the Big East is a BCS conference, but I'm still considering this game like a BCS buster special.  Undefeated Big East teams are not looked on very highly in most season.  West Virginia a couple years ago was the exception, but people are very skeptial about Cincinnati and South Florida this season.  And I am no different.  The conference is weak, but to be fair, both teams have some good out of conference wins.  Cinci has beaten Oregon State on the road, and South Florida has beaten Florida State.  Even in a down year, that is a good win for USF.  Cincinnati QB Tony Pike is a Heisman candidate and needs a national stage to showcase his talents.  ESPN's Todd McShay seems to like him already, so that will help.  But Thursday night will go a long way for his Heisman candidacy.  November 13th vs. West Virginia will help too.  South Florida is missing their start quarterback Matt Grothe
, but B.J. Daniels has stepped up very nicely.  Cincinnati is giving 2.5 in this game, but I still take them because of the Tony Pike factor 31-20.

4.  #4 Virginia Tech @ #19 Georgia Tech 5:00 PM ESPN2

The likely ACC Coastal championship game is on the line this weekend in this matchup.  Miami is still waiting in the wings in that division, but  the loss to Virginia Tech head-to-head will hurt.  Of course if Georgia Tech wins, its all out the window.  We all know about Tech's amazing ground attack.  Jonathan Dwyer leads the team in yards.  QB Josh Nesbit leads in carries, but only as a 3.9 YPC average.  Have to factor sacks into that equation too though.  Anothony Allen is another one....and he is a BURNER as the second running back.  Through the air, Tech isn't spectacular with only 5 TD passes on the year.  Virginia Tech has been nearly unstoppable this year save the Alabama game.  They maybe should have lost to Nebraska, but otherwise have looked good.  Tyrod Taylor hasn't look spectacular through the air, but he is keeping the ball out of the defense's hands with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio.  Ryan Williams is really filling in nicely with nearly 1/2 of the team's total carriers on the season and a 5.8 YPC average.  Va Tech is getting 3.5 in this game....but thats not nearly enough.  31-17 Hokies.

3.   #22 South Carolina @ #2 Alabama 6:45 PM ESPN

It's going to be a tough game, but don't count out South Carolina in this game.  They are just one play away from being undefeated and have beaten a very good Ole Miss team.  Stephen Garcia is coming into his own as a quarterback with over 60% completion percentage.  No one has really stepped up on the ground as of yet however.  Brian Maddox has the most carries but only a 3.1 YPC average.  The Gamecocks like to spread the ball around on offense, which Alabama does have issues stopping at times.  6 cocks have at least 10 catches on the year.  And Steve Spurrier LOVES to beat Alabama and hasn't played in Tuscaloosa since he was at Florida.  But Alabama has been the most impressive team in the nation to date.  Greg McElroy as more than filled in for John Parker Wilson (although that wasn't all that difficult really) and guys like Ingram and especially Richardson on the ground are making Tide fans ask "Glen Coffee Who?"  Alabama has four running backs that could start on many elite teams.  Ingram leads the offense wit 659 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Richardson is developing into a superstar already just 1/2 the way into his true freshman season.  4 receivers have at least 10 catches with the leading receiver, Marquis Maze, having just 242 yards.  But this means Alabama no longer relies on Julio to make all the catches.  Eventually, he will be freed up on single coverages and be able to run wild again.  Alabama is giving 17.5 in this game...and that sounds about right.  I am tempted to take USCe to stay within the spread, but I just can't do it.  Alabama 31-10.

2.  #6 USC @ #25 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC

Two of the top three media darlings are up against each other this weekend in South Bend.  If only Tim Tebow could ref the game and everyone that matters according to the media would be in one place! I hate to say it, but Jimmy Clausen does look pretty good.  68% completion, 12 TD, just 2 INT.  Armondo Allen on the ground has been as good as expected.  Golden Tate is an ELITE receiver with 33 catches, but with the injury to Michael Floyd, Tate will see a lot of double coverages and won't see much open space.  Since the Nevada game, Notre Dame has played every game within a touchdown with the biggest margin of victory being a 7 point overtime win against Washington.  USC isn't the USC of old either.  Matt Barkley is healthy and ready to go, but isn't overpowering from the QB position.  Joe McKnight gets the majority of carries and has a 7.1 YPC, but isn't a between the tackles runner.  Stafon Johnson is, but he is out for the year, at least.  Allen Bradford does well as an inside runner, but Johnson was the goal line touchdown machine.  USC probably has 5 backs that could tote the rock if called upon.  Damian Williams leads the receiving corps with 24 catches.  Beyond Williams, no one has really stepped up.  And the USC defense has given up just 43 points this season.  USC is giving 10, not enough.  38-13 Trojans.  If not, count Jimmy Clausen as your Heisman winner already.

1.  #20 Oklahoma @ #3 Texas 11:00 AM ABC

The Red River Rivalry.  Still want to call it the shootout, but sadly we don't do that anymore.  God forbid we discuss a shootout in TEXAS!  Not like that ever happened or anything like that.  But I digress.  This match up might not have some of the luster it did in recent years, but its still a top notch game.  Oklahoma's national title hopes are likely dead, but its conference title hopes are not.  An OU victory could likely mean a Texas team not winning its conference but still being in line as a top one loss team to play in the title game.  Sam Bradford is back and looks as good as ever.  Granted, it was just Baylor he was playing against.  The Sooners have a two headed  monster of Demarco Murray and Chris Brown at running back.  Both have over 70 carries and both have a near 5 YPC average.  OU is giving up just 8.4 PPG on defense.  But Texas is the top team in the nation outside of the SEC for a reason.  Despite the head to head victory in last year's game, Texas was shut out of the national title game.  That will not happen this year since OU already has two losses and Texas knows that.  They also know that if they do not win their conference (Division for that matter) that they are unlikely to get the BCS nod over another 1 loss conference champion, or even an undefeated mid major.  Colt McCoy is probably the leader for the Heisman at this point and is playing spectacularly.  The Horns top two running backs, Vondrell McGee and Tre' Newon are dinged up and may not play.  Foswhitt Whittaker figures to take over as the top back if they cannot go and looked just fine last weekend when called upon.  The Horns have 3 receivers with at least 20 catches led by Jordan Shipley with 47 grabs already on the year.  Shipley, Dan Bucker, and converted quarterback John Chiles make for a potent trio of receivers that will be all over the OU defense.  Texas does give up a little more than OU with 15 PPG.  Vegas has Texas giving 3.5 in this one, don't worry though.  It will be close, it always is, but Texas in a surprising defensive game 24-13.

Week 5 Picks of the Week

Not off to a great start to my prognostication season, but looking for a rebound this weekend:

Last Week:  2-3  Season 4-6

1.  South Florida (-6.5) @ Syracuse 11:00 AM CDT espn360.com

The Bulls are a little big of a question mark at this point in the season.  True, they are 4-0 but three of those wins are against Wofford, Western Kentucky, and Charleston Southern.  However, they did destroy all three of those teams.  Now last weekend, a 17-7 win over Florida State sort of legitimized this squad.  And that was with QB Matt Grothe out.  Grothe will be out for the rest of the season, so its up to B.J. Daniels to lead the Bulls.  He doesn't have the biggest stats, but Junior running back Mike Ford is starting to see some snaps.  The Former 5 star recruit has all the talent in the world and will be a dominate back this season. In one start, along with some mop up duty, Daniels is 20 of 36 for 394 with 4 TD and 2 INT.  Daniels also leads the team in rushing with 259 yards.  Syracuse is actually starting to turn their season around some with wins over Northwestern and a big win over Maine last weekend.  South Florida is just too strong and too fast, I like the Bulls 34-17.

2.  East Carolina (-2.5) @ Marshall 11:00 AM CBS College Sports

The Pirates are 2-2 on the season winning the games they are supposed to win, and losing the ones they are supposed to lose.  Senior QB Patrick Pinkney hasn't had the best season to this point, but has some big wins to his credit in his career.  Marshall is a surprising 3-1 on the season with their only loss @ Virginia Tech and with wins over Southern Illinios, Bowling Green, and surprisingly @ Memphis last weekend.  Memphis kept it close for a while against Ole Miss, but that might not be nearly as surprising as once thought at this point.  Darius Marshall is a clear number 1 running back, and QB Brian Anderson is playing very well.  I like the Pirates to win this one, though not as big as I was originally thinking 24-17.

3.  Virginia Tech (-16.5) @ Duke 11:00 AM espn360.com

Virginia Tech is coming off of a BIG win over Miami last weekend in one of the surprise games of the weekend.  They had to survive against Nebraska the week before and looked pretty awful against Alabama in week 1.  QB Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked all that impressive so far this season, but at least he isn't turning the ball over all that much with a 4-1 TD/INT ratio.  Ryan Williams at running back has been the surprise of the season for the Hokies to this point and he looks to be rolling just fine with 3 100 yard or more games in a row.  Duke is pretty terrible, although they did beat North Carolina Central pretty handily last weekend.  But an opening weekend loss to Richmond doesn't look very good.  I like Virginia Tech 38-6.

4.  Penn State (-7) @ Illinois 2:30 PM ABC

I realize Joe Paterno hates to talk about revenge in college football, but his team will want it after their game last weekend.  Penn State NEEDS to win and win big for the rest of the season if they want a chance to stay in the national title picture.  They are likely out, but anything is possible.  The weather can't possibly be any worse than it was last weekend, so Daryl Clark should do better from the QB spot.  Illinois is pretty bad this season, but they probably shouldn't be.  Other than a big win over Illinois State, the Illini has given up 67 points and scored just 9 in their two other games vs. Missouri and @ Ohio State.  Juice Williams has been horrible with no touchdowns yet this season, and Arrelious Benn has just five catches on the season.  Those two have all  the talent in the world and will get better, but not this weekend.  Penn State wins 24-7.

5.  Arkansas (+1) vs Texas A&M (Neutral Site @ Jerry World) 6:30 PM ESPN

Other than getting dominated at Alabama, the Razorbacks have looked good this season.  Domination against Missouri State was not unexpected, but playing well against Georgia putting up 41 points was a little unexpected.  QB Ryan Mallet will put up some big numbers against the less talented Aggie defense, and running back Michael Smith will gash holes in the porous Aggie defensive line.  A&M is 3-0 on the season, but those wins are against New Mexico, Utah STate, and UAB.  Arkansas is already very battle tested.  The Aggies are led by Jenior QB Jerrod Johnson how is 2nd, but just barely, on the team in rushing.  Texas A&M wants a big win to finally get recognized on the national stage, but I don't think it will happen.  I actually look for a pretty big Arkansas victory in this game, 24-13.

Week 4 Games of the Week:

Week 3 is in the books, so now it's time for the Week 4 Games of the Week!

Last Week: 4-1:  Season Total 4-1


5.  Texas Tech @ #17 Houston 8:15 p.m CDT Espn2
If you are a fan of offense and not so much of defense, this game will be for you.  The scoreboard operator is likely to have a heart attack in this game.  Houston has had two weeks to prepare for this game after their stunning upset of then #5 Oklahoma State and is averaging 50 ppg.  QB Case Keenum has a 7-1 TD/INT ratio in just two games with 725 yards passing.  This is the toughest game left on the Houston schedule so if they can pull it out, a BCS bid is possible.  They still have Road games @ Mississippi State, Tulsa, and UCF along with Southern Miss and Memphis at home, but Texas Tech is by far the toughest contest remaining.  Speaking of Tech, they aren't doing too bad themselves on offense.  The Red Raiders are "only" averaging 39 ppg, but QB Taylor Potts has taken over the offense just fine.  Potts has 1,281 yards in three games carrying a 12-4 (3-1) TD/INT ratio.  And three of those four picks were in the first game which was his first career start.  In the Texas game, Potts looked great too.  Its at home for the Cougars and they have had two weeks to prepare---I give it to Houston 49-42.

4.  Iowa @ #5 Penn State 7:00 PM ABC
This game really should have been played last week were it seemed as though every game was a revenge game.  Iowa gave the Nittany Lions their only regular season loss with a last second field goal destroying their BCS Title chances But this game wasn't totally on my radar until it was announced that College Gameday would be attending the game in Happy Valley.  Penn State has look about as impressive as any top team.  But when you're best opponent is at toss-up between Akron and Syracuse, we don't know anything about you yet.  RB Evan Royster is playing well finally and QB Daryll Clark has looked very efficient with an 8-3 TD/INT ratio.  Iowa comes in 3-0 but hasn't looked very good doing it.  The Hawkeyes had to block the last second field goal of Northern Iowa on opening weekend not once but TWICE to preserve the victory.  They did destroy Iowa State on the road and had a quality victory vs. Arizona last weekend, but they just don't "feel" like a 3-0 team.  I think Penn State exacts revenge for last season and wins BIG over Iowa 35-6

3.  Arkansas @ #3 Alabama 2:30 CBS

The SEC schedule opens for Alabama this weekend with the Razorbacks coming into town.  Alabama looks unstoppable on offense this season with an efficient quarterback in Greg McElroy, and any of three running backs that could be considered a starter on most teams.  Mark Ingram leads the way with 297 yards over 3 games and a 6.8 YPC average, but Freshman Trent Richardson isn't far behind with 215 yards and is leading the team with a 7.4 YPC average.  Ingram actually leads the team in receptions with 10.  Sophomore Julio Jones should be ready to go against Arkansas giving McElroy the probably 3rd best receiver  (Dez Bryant, A.J. Green) in the NCAA back to throw to.  Jones hasn't gotten into the endzone since the Georgia game last season and will be hungry to get back there now.  Arkansas looked pretty great against Georgia last weekend though scoring 41 points on what is supposed to be a great defense.  QB Ryan Mallett, a Michigan transfer, is so far living up to his lofty projections coming out of High School with 717 yards in just two games with a 6-0 TD/INT ratio.  But he hasn't faced a defense as strong as Alabama's yet.  Senior RB Michael Smith hasn't shown much yet this year in limited attempts, but with Mallett at QB this is a pass first defense.  Alabama typically dominates that type of team, so I look for a 27-14 Alabama victory on Saturday.

2.  #6 California @ Oregon 2:30 ABC
This game looked a lot more appealing in the preseason when people actually thought Oregon was going to be a true contender.  But a miserable showing and LaGarrette Blount punch later, and Oregon is reeling a little bit.  RB LaMichael James is doing his best to fill in for the suspended Blount but he's just a freshman and it will take time.  Although he did have 152 yards against Utah last weekend.  QB Jeremiah Masoli hasn't looked good however so he either needs to improve dramatically or the running game really needs to be that dominant.  As for Cal, they have looked impressive.  The Maryland win may not be as impressive given that they have since lost to MTSU for the second straight year, but convincing wins over Eastern Washington and on the road @ Minnesota convince he that was more a product of how good Cal is, not how bad Maryland is.  QB Kevin Riley has this offense clicking with an efficient passing attack and a 5-0 TD/INT ratio.  But the Golden Bears really live and die by the play of Jahvid Best.  Best has played better than expected so far this year aleady collecting 412 yards and 8 touchdowns with an astonishing 7.8 YPC.  Best is no longer just a fringe Heisman candidate, he may be the leader early in the season.  The game is in Oregon, but that won't be enough for the Ducks to hold off the Golden Bears 35-17

1.  #9 Miami @ #11 Virginia Tech 2:30 ABC

The only game of the week feature two top 25 teams against each other has to be the game of the week.  Why College Gameday isn't there I'll probably never know --- they didn't respond to my tweet ----- but it is my pick for game of the week for sure.  The Hokies are just 2-1 on the season, but that loss was to a then #5, now #3 Alabama team.  It did take a last second touchdown to get past Nebraska however, so they could well be 1-2 on the season.  Maybe that's why Gameday isn't up in Blacksburg?  Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked great so far only achieving a 50% completion percentage once on the year (Marshall week 2) but he doesn't turn it over often with a 3-1 TD/INT ratio.  Ryan Williams does have back to back 100 yard games on the ground though.  Miami comes in looking as good as they have in years.  All the analysts said if the Hurricanes could come out of the start of the season with a 2-2 record it would be a victory for the program.  Well, they have guaranteed that already starting out 2-0.  Jacory Harris, one of the Miami Northwestern High School 8 from a couple years ago, has looked simply fantastic from the quarterback position hitting on 41-of-59 passes with a 5/2 TD/INT ratio Graig Cooper and Javarris James carry the load at running back.  The running back is a slight issue for the Canes because there is no true standout back there, but if Harris has progressed as much as he looked like he has it shouldn't matter.  If Miami can keep the Hokies from making a big play on special teams, they should win this game.  And I think they will do it in a slugfest 24-17.

That's it for the picks this week.  Check in tomorrow for my top five picks against the spread.