Week 12 Games of the Week: Rivalry Week Part 1

Well its that time of year, the beginning of rivalry week.  Well, its more like a rivalry two weeks now, but still.  Not too much going on with the national landscape this week.  The top teams are all playing unranked opponents with Texas vs. Kansas being the only game that looks like it might even be close.  With that in mind, here are my top five games of the week.

5.  Kentucky @ Georgia 6:45 Central ESPN2

See, I told you it was a slow week didn't I? 

Georgia is favored by 8.5 in this game, and on paper should probably win this game by about 35 points.  But this is a weird season.  The scores in alot of Kentucky's games haven't looked great, but they have been in almost every game other than the Florida game.  Georgia will be missing safety Bacarri Rambo because of this jarring hit against Auburn last weekend

and will also be missing A.J. Green after injuring himself in that same game.  And this UGA offense pretty much runs through Green.  A.J. has 751 receiving yards - 284 is the next highest.  Green has 47 catches - 21 is next.  Thankfully Washaun Ealey has been stepping up nicely in the running game with Richard Samuel and Caleb King being at best moderately productive.  I see a Georgia cover in this game with the running game being able to gas holes in the Kentucky defense - but not by much.  24-14.

4.  Penn State @ Michigan State

The battle for the Land Grant Trophy.  Side note:  does every Big 10 game have a trophy attached to it?

Anyways, back to the game.  I haven't really paid much attention to either team this year because, well, its the Big 10 and who cares anyways.  Both teams are bowl eligible so its more for seeding than anything else.  Although, Penn State does still have an outside shot at getting a BCS bid.  Michigan State never really got a leading running back this season, and that's not good for the Big 10.  Kirk Cousins at quarterback has been more than serviceable, but still not great.  Penn State has a top level quarterback in Daryl Clark, and a top level running back in Evan Royster.  Royster didn't end up with Heisman like numbers that he could have had earlier in the season, but nevertheless he is a great back.  Penn State is favored by 3, and they should really blow that out of the water without a problem.  35-13.

3.  Cal @ Stanford 6:30 (no network listed on ESPN, but i suspect this will be on Vs.)

The Game!  We couldn't possibly talk about Cal Stanford without talking about, THE PLAY:

Or, if you are looking for a more fun version of the play, here you go:

Not much has changed from the preseason with this game.  I would have called for a blowout then, and I will do the same now.  Only difference is I would have told you Cal was get the blowout then, now I think Stanford will be the ones on top.  Stanford has a dark horse Heisman candidate in Toby Gerhart at running back, and budding super star quarterback in Andrew Luck.  Whalen and Owusu are top level receivers to compliment those two.  For Cal, an injured Jhavid Best pretty much seals the fate of this one.  Stanford favored by 7, not enough.  42-24.

2.  LSU @ Ole Miss 3:30 CBS

The SEC Game of the Week will almost always make my top five list.  Not that I'm biased or anything.  I don't imagine this game will live up to the 1959 classic battle of top five teams and Heisman Winner Billy Cannon's punt return, but we can always dream

LSU is sitting right now pretty much where Ole Miss was predicted to be in the preseason.  Ole Miss has not really lived up to all the hype, but last week they did demolish Tennessee.  Although that team was facing some pretty heavy distractions with the whole armed robbery thing.  LSU as been hit with the injury bug, but Jordon Jefferson should be ready to go.  Same can't be said for Charles Scott who's injury is a little more serious.  Ole Miss is just such a random team this year.  Will you get the team that got dominated by Auburn, or the one that dominated Tennessee?  The one that dominated Arkansas, or the one that somehow lost to South Carolina?  Ole Miss is actually favored in this game surprisingly enough.  Lot of stock being put into the team after last weekend.  I don't see lightening sticking twice however.  LSU 20-13.

1.  Ohio State @ Michigan

Hate week at its best!  I don't care if both of these teams are 0-11 heading in, this is must see TV.

Ohio State's post season trip is booked already.  They know they are going to the Rose Bowl no matter what happens in the Michigan game.  Do you think they will rest their starters?  In a word, no.  Pryor and Company want nothing more than to STOMP the Wolverines.  Michigan comes in with a four game losing streak, also losing 6 of 7 after starting 4-0.  So if you can do the math, you know that Michigan needs a win Saturday to become bowl eligible.  This kinda has that feel that the Alabama vs. Auburn game had last year.  Alabama had the SEC title game looming, and Auburn needed a win to go bowling.  Alabama won that game 36-0.  I don't see a score like that in the future, but I do see a convincing Ohio State victory.  My initial thought was Buckeyes by about 13 - and Vegas put this one at a 12.5 point spread.  So its gonna be a tough one to pick.  On one hand, once the game is in hand the Buckeyes will probably put some starters on the bench.  But its not like they have a game to get ready for.  Its only November and the Rose Bowl isn't until New Years.  I don't pick this with a terrible amount of confidence, but I do see Ohio State with a close cover 24-10.

It might not be a week for nationally relevant games, but it is nearing the end of the season, and rivalries are THE BEST this time of year.  Anything can happen in a game like Ohio State/Michigan or Cal/Stanford.  Stay tuned, its gonna be a great weekend ahead.

Great Website!

Came across http://upnextinsports.com/ last night while searching for funny websites.  Found some great college FB pics on there:

Week 5 Picks of the Week

Not off to a great start to my prognostication season, but looking for a rebound this weekend:

Last Week:  2-3  Season 4-6

1.  South Florida (-6.5) @ Syracuse 11:00 AM CDT espn360.com

The Bulls are a little big of a question mark at this point in the season.  True, they are 4-0 but three of those wins are against Wofford, Western Kentucky, and Charleston Southern.  However, they did destroy all three of those teams.  Now last weekend, a 17-7 win over Florida State sort of legitimized this squad.  And that was with QB Matt Grothe out.  Grothe will be out for the rest of the season, so its up to B.J. Daniels to lead the Bulls.  He doesn't have the biggest stats, but Junior running back Mike Ford is starting to see some snaps.  The Former 5 star recruit has all the talent in the world and will be a dominate back this season. In one start, along with some mop up duty, Daniels is 20 of 36 for 394 with 4 TD and 2 INT.  Daniels also leads the team in rushing with 259 yards.  Syracuse is actually starting to turn their season around some with wins over Northwestern and a big win over Maine last weekend.  South Florida is just too strong and too fast, I like the Bulls 34-17.

2.  East Carolina (-2.5) @ Marshall 11:00 AM CBS College Sports

The Pirates are 2-2 on the season winning the games they are supposed to win, and losing the ones they are supposed to lose.  Senior QB Patrick Pinkney hasn't had the best season to this point, but has some big wins to his credit in his career.  Marshall is a surprising 3-1 on the season with their only loss @ Virginia Tech and with wins over Southern Illinios, Bowling Green, and surprisingly @ Memphis last weekend.  Memphis kept it close for a while against Ole Miss, but that might not be nearly as surprising as once thought at this point.  Darius Marshall is a clear number 1 running back, and QB Brian Anderson is playing very well.  I like the Pirates to win this one, though not as big as I was originally thinking 24-17.

3.  Virginia Tech (-16.5) @ Duke 11:00 AM espn360.com

Virginia Tech is coming off of a BIG win over Miami last weekend in one of the surprise games of the weekend.  They had to survive against Nebraska the week before and looked pretty awful against Alabama in week 1.  QB Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked all that impressive so far this season, but at least he isn't turning the ball over all that much with a 4-1 TD/INT ratio.  Ryan Williams at running back has been the surprise of the season for the Hokies to this point and he looks to be rolling just fine with 3 100 yard or more games in a row.  Duke is pretty terrible, although they did beat North Carolina Central pretty handily last weekend.  But an opening weekend loss to Richmond doesn't look very good.  I like Virginia Tech 38-6.

4.  Penn State (-7) @ Illinois 2:30 PM ABC

I realize Joe Paterno hates to talk about revenge in college football, but his team will want it after their game last weekend.  Penn State NEEDS to win and win big for the rest of the season if they want a chance to stay in the national title picture.  They are likely out, but anything is possible.  The weather can't possibly be any worse than it was last weekend, so Daryl Clark should do better from the QB spot.  Illinois is pretty bad this season, but they probably shouldn't be.  Other than a big win over Illinois State, the Illini has given up 67 points and scored just 9 in their two other games vs. Missouri and @ Ohio State.  Juice Williams has been horrible with no touchdowns yet this season, and Arrelious Benn has just five catches on the season.  Those two have all  the talent in the world and will get better, but not this weekend.  Penn State wins 24-7.

5.  Arkansas (+1) vs Texas A&M (Neutral Site @ Jerry World) 6:30 PM ESPN

Other than getting dominated at Alabama, the Razorbacks have looked good this season.  Domination against Missouri State was not unexpected, but playing well against Georgia putting up 41 points was a little unexpected.  QB Ryan Mallet will put up some big numbers against the less talented Aggie defense, and running back Michael Smith will gash holes in the porous Aggie defensive line.  A&M is 3-0 on the season, but those wins are against New Mexico, Utah STate, and UAB.  Arkansas is already very battle tested.  The Aggies are led by Jenior QB Jerrod Johnson how is 2nd, but just barely, on the team in rushing.  Texas A&M wants a big win to finally get recognized on the national stage, but I don't think it will happen.  I actually look for a pretty big Arkansas victory in this game, 24-13.

Week 4 Recap

Here is a quick rundown of last week's top ten teams

1.  Florida W vs. Kentucky 41-7

One Word:  Domination.  495 yards vs. 179.  Florida jumped out to a 31-0 first quarter lead.  That's something I have a hard time doing in the NCAA 2010 football video games even when I use Florida!  The this game won't be remembered for the domination, it will be remembered for The Tebow Hit.  Late in the 3rd quarter, Tebow was sacked by Kentucky's Taylor Wyndham and had to be taken to the hospital where he remained overnight for observations.  Of course, Tebow also came into the game with the flu so it really was a bad week for him.  But with a bye week coming up, he should be, and by extension the Gators, should be fine before the LSU game.

2.  Texas W vs. UTEP 64-7

One word:  Domination.  After a couple weeks in a row of sluggish first half play, the Longhorns put a complete game together with this victory.  639 yards vs. just 53.  UTEP's only score of the day came on a 49 yard interception return.  The Horns only gave up 9 yards on the ground  McCoy a relatively pedestrian 28/35 286 yards 3 TD 1 INT.  Vondrell McGee had over 100 on the ground, and Jordan "Ghost" Shipley added 122 through the air.  Next up for Texas after a bye week is a date with Colorado before the all important Red River Rivalry vs. Oklahoma.

3.  Alabama W vs. Arkansas 35-7

Already had a full post on this game, but to review:  offense looked average other than the big plays, defense looked AMAZING, special teams better but need to keep the penalties down, especially on long kick and punt returns.  The kick coverage team has been better however which is Alabama's only real weakness to this point.  McElroy is a standout and might be the best QB in the SEC this year (and yes that includes Tebow) and Richardson is a budding superstar in the NCAA.  The only thing that will keep Richardson from a future Heisman trophy will be Mark Ingram.  But that is how Alabama has always done it, and it shouldn't ever change.  We are bigger than personal awards, its all about the team.  Next up for Alabama is a road trip Kentucky before what looked like a bigger match up last week:  a road trip to Oxford to play Ole Miss.  Make no mistake however, both games will be tough tests for the Tide. 

4.  Ole Miss L vs. South Carolina 10-16

Welcome back to earth Ole Miss.  It happens very often that a team with lofty preseason projections falls flat on their face in a game where they should win.  Usually, that happens to a team that is not used to those types of predictions (or USC).  And Thursday ESPN games tend to claim a lot of victims.  Ole Miss didn't look good in the game, but they are still a great SEC West team.  The October 10th home game vs. Alabama will show where Ole Miss really is in that division. 

5.  Penn State L vs. Iowa10-21

Almost half of SportsNation picked this as the top ten upset game of the week, and they were right.  Iowa came into the game having won 6-of-7 against Penn State, and now we can make it 7-of-8.  More importantly however, this loss pretty much takes Penn State out of the BCS title picture.  For a one loss Big 10 team to make it in, all the teams in the SEC and Big 12, and even USC, will have to end up with two losses.  That's not likely to happen.  Penn State jumped out to an early lead with a 79 yard pass from DAryll Clark to Chaz Powell the first time PSU touched the ball.  A field goal brought the lead up to 10-0 and it looked like Penn State was gonna roll.  But a safety and field goal by Iowa in the first half brought it back to a game.  But it was 16 4th quarter points by the Hawkeyes , led by a blocked punt for a touchdown, that put the game out of reach.  Even with the BCS title nearly out of reach, the Rose Bowl that comes with a Big 10 title is not.  Ohio State looked very good, and Michigan is clearly back, so it looks to be a very fun three way fight for the Big 10 title this year.  State has what should be a cakewalk road game against Illinois this weekend before a pair of tuneups vs. Eastern Illinois and Minnesota (which may be a relatively difficult game) before a big match up at the Big House vs Michigan. 

6.  Cal L vs. Oregon 3-42
 Cal, WTF?!?!?!?!  This was easily the biggest egg-laying performance of the weekend.  524 yards vs. 207.  Jahvid Best WAS the best running back in the nation and a possible Heisman front-runner, but only 55 yards on 16 carries is not going to get it down.  All Cal has to do is have an efficient performance by QB Kevin Riley to win games, but 12/31 for 123 is not the way to do it.  Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli finally rememberd how to play quarterback oing 21/25 for 253 and 3 touchdowns, his first on the season.  Cal opened the game well with a field goal in the first minute of the game...but after that.....yikes.  42 unanswered points for the Ducks destroyed the Bears.  It doesn't get much easier for Cal at this point however with a date with USC on the schedule this weekend.  Its ok Cal, at least you don't have to wear uniforms that look like that!

7.  LSU W vs. Mississippi State 30-26

Can't say much that went well for LSU in this one other than at least they got the win.   The Bulldogs bested LSU in first downs (21-12), and in total yards (374-263) but it really was turnovers that killed the Dawgs in this one.  Tyson Lee was just 15/38 for only 172 yards with 1 TD, but most importantly 3 costly turnovers.  A Patrick Peterson interception return for TD got the scoring kicked off for LSU, but MSU stormed right back with an Anthony Dixon TD run.  The teams traded touchdowns again in the first quarter before LSU scored on a 2nd quarter field goal.  State ahd the chance to take the lead at the end of the half with a chip shot field goal, but they elected to go for a touchdown, and it failed.  Down just two points early in the 4th, it looked like State might have a chance but a 93 yard punt return by Chad Jones put LSU in control.  MSU stomed back with a field goal to bring it to within 6, but an amazing goal line stand by LSU with 1 minute remaining the in the game ended all hope.  LSU took a purposeful safety with 51 seconds left, but State could not get the ball down the field and the Tigers survived.  It doesn't get any easier for the Tigers from here however with back to back games against the SEC East best Georgia Bulldogs and Florida Gators.

8.  Boise State W vs. Bowling Green 49-14

I hate to say it, but Boise State is legit again this year.  They have a quality win vs. Oregon - a team that just DEMOLISHED a supposedly great Cal team - and dominating performances against Miami (OH), Fresno State, and Bowling Green.  I don't know what to say about this team that hasn't already been said.  QB Kellen Moore is so smart and just athletic enough to be dangerous.  Moore went 17/21 for 247 and 2 TDs.  Running back Doug Martin had 100 on the ground too.  I'm sure I will say this every week, but there doesn't seem to be a way this team can lose in the regular season.  And if they win out, they will be in the BCS picture.

9.  Miami L vs. Virginia Tech 7-31

Miami must have started to believe their own hype going into this game.  All the media, including me, were saying how great this team is and that they were going to win the ACC.  Oops, we forgot about Virginia Tech.  After a loss to Alabama and a near loss to Nebraska, everyone seemed to forget about the Hokies.  Well, not anymore.  The Hokies still have plenty of issues in the passing game with Tyrod Taylor going just 4/9, but he wasn't needed very much.  Ryan Williams added 150 and 2 scores on the ground - Taylor had 75 of his own, and the defense help Miami to just 209 yards.  Jacory Harris, a possible Heisman candidate went just 9/25 for 150, Zero TDs and an INT.  If not for Cal, this would have been the WTF game of the game of the day.  But its not all bad for Miami.  Everyone pegged the Hurricanes 2-2 after their start of the season as what they needed to be on the way back, and they have already guaranteed that.  The bad news?  Game four is next weekend against Oklahoma with Sam Bradford possibly back in the lineup.  After the OU game it does get easier however with Florida A&M and UCF.  Clemson should be very winnable, as should Wake Forest, and Virginia is just terrible.  @ North Carolina will be tough, Duke will not be, and South Florida is a huge question mark.  Worst case for the Hurricanes:  7-5 and a bowl game.  Best case - 10-2 and possible at large BCS game.  All is not lost in Coral Gables.

10.  Oklahoma BYE

Oklahoma avoided the upset bug by simply being off for the weekend.  Next up is a date with the Hurricanes (and the potential return of Sam Bradford) before a tuneup against Baylor, and the big showdown with the Longhorns in Dallas on October 17th

Top ten will look VERY different for next weekend's Recap.  Check back all week for updates and PLEASE LEAVE COMMENTS

Week 4 Games of the Week:

Week 3 is in the books, so now it's time for the Week 4 Games of the Week!

Last Week: 4-1:  Season Total 4-1


5.  Texas Tech @ #17 Houston 8:15 p.m CDT Espn2
If you are a fan of offense and not so much of defense, this game will be for you.  The scoreboard operator is likely to have a heart attack in this game.  Houston has had two weeks to prepare for this game after their stunning upset of then #5 Oklahoma State and is averaging 50 ppg.  QB Case Keenum has a 7-1 TD/INT ratio in just two games with 725 yards passing.  This is the toughest game left on the Houston schedule so if they can pull it out, a BCS bid is possible.  They still have Road games @ Mississippi State, Tulsa, and UCF along with Southern Miss and Memphis at home, but Texas Tech is by far the toughest contest remaining.  Speaking of Tech, they aren't doing too bad themselves on offense.  The Red Raiders are "only" averaging 39 ppg, but QB Taylor Potts has taken over the offense just fine.  Potts has 1,281 yards in three games carrying a 12-4 (3-1) TD/INT ratio.  And three of those four picks were in the first game which was his first career start.  In the Texas game, Potts looked great too.  Its at home for the Cougars and they have had two weeks to prepare---I give it to Houston 49-42.

4.  Iowa @ #5 Penn State 7:00 PM ABC
This game really should have been played last week were it seemed as though every game was a revenge game.  Iowa gave the Nittany Lions their only regular season loss with a last second field goal destroying their BCS Title chances But this game wasn't totally on my radar until it was announced that College Gameday would be attending the game in Happy Valley.  Penn State has look about as impressive as any top team.  But when you're best opponent is at toss-up between Akron and Syracuse, we don't know anything about you yet.  RB Evan Royster is playing well finally and QB Daryll Clark has looked very efficient with an 8-3 TD/INT ratio.  Iowa comes in 3-0 but hasn't looked very good doing it.  The Hawkeyes had to block the last second field goal of Northern Iowa on opening weekend not once but TWICE to preserve the victory.  They did destroy Iowa State on the road and had a quality victory vs. Arizona last weekend, but they just don't "feel" like a 3-0 team.  I think Penn State exacts revenge for last season and wins BIG over Iowa 35-6

3.  Arkansas @ #3 Alabama 2:30 CBS

The SEC schedule opens for Alabama this weekend with the Razorbacks coming into town.  Alabama looks unstoppable on offense this season with an efficient quarterback in Greg McElroy, and any of three running backs that could be considered a starter on most teams.  Mark Ingram leads the way with 297 yards over 3 games and a 6.8 YPC average, but Freshman Trent Richardson isn't far behind with 215 yards and is leading the team with a 7.4 YPC average.  Ingram actually leads the team in receptions with 10.  Sophomore Julio Jones should be ready to go against Arkansas giving McElroy the probably 3rd best receiver  (Dez Bryant, A.J. Green) in the NCAA back to throw to.  Jones hasn't gotten into the endzone since the Georgia game last season and will be hungry to get back there now.  Arkansas looked pretty great against Georgia last weekend though scoring 41 points on what is supposed to be a great defense.  QB Ryan Mallett, a Michigan transfer, is so far living up to his lofty projections coming out of High School with 717 yards in just two games with a 6-0 TD/INT ratio.  But he hasn't faced a defense as strong as Alabama's yet.  Senior RB Michael Smith hasn't shown much yet this year in limited attempts, but with Mallett at QB this is a pass first defense.  Alabama typically dominates that type of team, so I look for a 27-14 Alabama victory on Saturday.

2.  #6 California @ Oregon 2:30 ABC
This game looked a lot more appealing in the preseason when people actually thought Oregon was going to be a true contender.  But a miserable showing and LaGarrette Blount punch later, and Oregon is reeling a little bit.  RB LaMichael James is doing his best to fill in for the suspended Blount but he's just a freshman and it will take time.  Although he did have 152 yards against Utah last weekend.  QB Jeremiah Masoli hasn't looked good however so he either needs to improve dramatically or the running game really needs to be that dominant.  As for Cal, they have looked impressive.  The Maryland win may not be as impressive given that they have since lost to MTSU for the second straight year, but convincing wins over Eastern Washington and on the road @ Minnesota convince he that was more a product of how good Cal is, not how bad Maryland is.  QB Kevin Riley has this offense clicking with an efficient passing attack and a 5-0 TD/INT ratio.  But the Golden Bears really live and die by the play of Jahvid Best.  Best has played better than expected so far this year aleady collecting 412 yards and 8 touchdowns with an astonishing 7.8 YPC.  Best is no longer just a fringe Heisman candidate, he may be the leader early in the season.  The game is in Oregon, but that won't be enough for the Ducks to hold off the Golden Bears 35-17

1.  #9 Miami @ #11 Virginia Tech 2:30 ABC

The only game of the week feature two top 25 teams against each other has to be the game of the week.  Why College Gameday isn't there I'll probably never know --- they didn't respond to my tweet ----- but it is my pick for game of the week for sure.  The Hokies are just 2-1 on the season, but that loss was to a then #5, now #3 Alabama team.  It did take a last second touchdown to get past Nebraska however, so they could well be 1-2 on the season.  Maybe that's why Gameday isn't up in Blacksburg?  Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked great so far only achieving a 50% completion percentage once on the year (Marshall week 2) but he doesn't turn it over often with a 3-1 TD/INT ratio.  Ryan Williams does have back to back 100 yard games on the ground though.  Miami comes in looking as good as they have in years.  All the analysts said if the Hurricanes could come out of the start of the season with a 2-2 record it would be a victory for the program.  Well, they have guaranteed that already starting out 2-0.  Jacory Harris, one of the Miami Northwestern High School 8 from a couple years ago, has looked simply fantastic from the quarterback position hitting on 41-of-59 passes with a 5/2 TD/INT ratio Graig Cooper and Javarris James carry the load at running back.  The running back is a slight issue for the Canes because there is no true standout back there, but if Harris has progressed as much as he looked like he has it shouldn't matter.  If Miami can keep the Hokies from making a big play on special teams, they should win this game.  And I think they will do it in a slugfest 24-17.

That's it for the picks this week.  Check in tomorrow for my top five picks against the spread.