Heisman Handicapping

Yesterday, ESPN announced the five college football players who would be making the trip to New York for the Heisman trophy presentation:

1.  Toby Gerhart, RB Stanford
2.  Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
3.  Colt McCoy, QB Texas
4.  Ndomukong Suh, DT Nebraska
5.  Tim Tebow, QB Florida

Here is a little rundown on each player and why he should win the award

1.  Toby Gerhart:

311 Carries
1,736 Yards
26 Touchdown

Why He Should Win:

Gerhart has been the most consistent running back this season in all of NCAA Division 1A football.  He leads the league in both yards and touchdowns.  He had at least 100 yards in all but 2 games this season and those games were of 82 and 96 yards respectively.  Stanford has come back to national recognition this season, and Gerhart is the primary reason for this.  He is a powerful runner who looks to be a great pro prospect as well as a fantastic college back.

Why He Should Not Win:

Gerhart's team is 8-4 on the season and did not win its conference.  The Pac-10 does not have divisions, but even if they did Stanford's 4th place finish would not have gotten them into the game.  He is the only player among the top 5 that did not play for a conference title, and really in the top 8 if you consider Kellen Moore (Boise), Dion Lewis (Pitt) and C.J. Spiller (Clemson) in the mix.  No player has won the Heisman on a team with at least 4 losses since 1987 (Tim Brown, Notre Dame).  Gerhart also led the nation in carries, so his yards and touchdown numbers are skewed because of that .  His yard per carry average of 5.6 that ranks just 50th in the NCAA.  In both games Gerhart rushed for under 100 yards, his team lost.  So yes that shows that he is critical to his team's success, but it also shows that when his team needs him the most, he doesn't show up.

2.  Mark Ingram

249 Attempts
1,542 Yards
15 Touchdowns

Why He Should Win:

Mark Ingram has been the leader for the nations number one team, and that should count for something.  Ingram's yards rank him 5th in the NCAA, and his 15 touchdowns put him 14th, and his yards per attempt put him 26th nationally.  For a stretch in the middle of the season, Ingram led Alabama by himself to some hard fought victories against SEC competition while QB Greg McElroy was going through a midseason slump.  Ingram is the best player on the best team in the nation.

Why He Should Not Win:

Ingram has not been very consistent this season at all.  He has 8 games with at least 100 yards rushing, but 5 games under 100 (Tennessee was close with 99 yards).  The most notable bad game was Auburn.  Ingram had just 30 yards rushing on 16 carries and was noticeably absent from the field late in the game.  True, he did get hurt, but that happened very late and was not related to his injury.  Other than Auburn however, each games Ingram was under 99 yards were all in blowouts where he was pulled late to give more carries to Trent Richardson.  But speaking of Richardson, he is probably a better back than Ingram is.  Can you really give the Heisman to the 2nd best back on a team?  Sure his numbers are better, but watching Richardson run is like watching magic on the football field.  Ingram is more just pound it up the middle and run you over.  It should also be noted that no Alabama player has ever won the Heisman trophy.

3.  Colt McCoy

3,512 Yards
27 Touchdowns
147.46 rating

Why He Should Win:

Colt McCoy has had the most consistent career among any of the finalists.  Texas has been a national power in each of McCoy's four seasons at starter and that is primarily thanks to him.  For the last couple of seasons, McCoy has had no running game to speak of and yet, have only lost one game - which was a one point road loss to Texas Tech last season.  For two seasons in a row, McCoy has led the Longhorns in rushing attempts, and last season also led them in yards.  This year, McCoy is 3rd nationally in completion percentage, 6th in yards, 8th in touchdowns, and 18th in passing efficiency.  Combined with his rushing stats, and McCoy can't mean more to his team than any other player.

Why He Should Not Win:

Colt McCoy hasn't really don't anything this season to win him the award.  His "Heisman Moment" was a great offensive performance against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving.  But should a great win over a 6-6 team really be your "moment?"  I don't think so.  Combine that with McCoy's pitiful performance in the Big 12 title game, and there really is no reason in the 2009 season to give Colt this award.  However, McCoy was considered one of the "Big 3" coming into the season along with Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford.  Tebow and Bradford each won their trophies, so now it is McCoy's turn as long as he didn't mess up.  And he did not mess it up.  However, the Heisman is not supposed to be a career achievement award, it is a season award.  And McCoy's season really doesn't even make him a top five worthy candidate.


4.  Ndamukong Suh

82 Tackles
12 Sacks
1 Int

Why He Should Win:

Simply, Suh is probably the most dominant performer in all of NCAA football this season.  Suh is 3rd in the nation in sacks with 12 and a total of 82 tackles.  That may not be alot of tackles, but his job is gap control on running plays taking on the double team.  That frees up your linebackers to make the tackles.  Suh simply cannot be blocked by just one player and teams are forced to gameplan around him.  If the award is truly for the most outstanding player in the game, Suh fits that to a T.

Why He Should Not Win:

Suh is a defensive player.  No true defender has ever won the award in modern football.  Charles Woodson of Michigan in 1997 was primarily a defensive player, but he got a lot of his numbers on punt return yardage which really helped him win the award.  Suh does not have a lot of tackles, but again, he is not supposed to in that defensive scheme.  If Nebraska had beaten Texas in the Big 12 title game, I would say Suh had a legit shot.  However, since they did not, I don 't see a lot of first place votes going to Suh.  He just doesn't have the numbers a Heisman winner needs to have.

Tim Tebow

2,413 Yards
18 Touchdowns
155.59 Rating

Why He Should Win:

Tim Tebow has been the most outstanding player in college football over the past three seasons hands down.  He has lost just twice in the past two seasons and is the unquestioned leader of the Florida Gators.  Tebow's passing numbers do not totally do him justice since we all know it is his legs that make him the player he is.  Tebow's 203 carries are more than double that of the next highest Gator (Jeffery Demps 96) and he leads the team in yards as well.  His 13 touchdowns on the ground also lead the team.  Tebow is the SEC record holder for rushing touchdowns, a record to obtained this season against Georgia.  Tim Tebow is what is right about college football.  We can hate him if we want to, but he is a great role model, he is a great person, and he will be a success in life after his days at Florida are over.

Why He Should Not Win:

Because this season, Tebow was not Tebow for much of the season.  After his concussion vs. Kentucky, he just wasn't the same for several weeks.  Maybe that isn't totally fair, but it has to be considered.  The "Mighty Gators" nearly lost to SEC West bottom feeder Mississippi State and perpetual "also-ran" Arkansas and really needed some Zebra help to beat Arkansas late.  Tebow's SEC title performance was horrible as Alabama simply controlled that game and Tebow.  The Alabama defense is JUST THAT GOOD though, but a Heisman winner should be able to overcome it.  Tebow's celebrated career should not end with the fairy tale Heisman trophy, and WILL not end with a national championship.

The GURU's prediction:

This should be the tightest race in Heisman history.  There was really no "Heisman Moment" for any player this season and no one really separated himself from the field.  Gerhart is the most dominant on offense, but his team wasn't nearly as good as the rest.  Ingram and McCoy's teams are undefeated and playing for the title and they are the unquestioned leaders, however their numbers are good not great by Heisman standards.  Suh is the most dominant but plays an unflashy defensive postion, and Tebow just didn't show up this season, but is the most celebrated player in college football history.  If I had a ballot, here is what it would look like:

1.  Mark Ingram
2.  Toby Gerhart
3.  Colt McCoy
4.  Ndamukong Suh
5.  C.J. Spiller
6.  Tim Tebow
7.  Kellen Moore
8.  Dion Lewis
9.  Andy Dalton

I have been going back and forth for days of this, but this is how I think it will shake out:

1.  Toby Gerhart
2.  Mark Ingram
3.  Colt McCoy
4.  Ndamukong Suh
5.  Tim Tebow

All I really know, Tebow should be 5th place.  But you can make a case for any of the other top four in any order, and I could not totally disagree with you.

Make sure to watch the ceremony on Saturday night and find out for yourself!

SEC Title Hangover! ROLL TIDE

Hey guys.  Sorry for the lack of posts this week. Cross Country drive + lack of internet access = no posts from the GURU.  But I'm back now!

I had the chance to be in Atlanta this past weekend, and WOW what a game!  Alabama was just dominant from start to finish and it is going to be a BCS Championship game for the Ages next month!

Oh yea, and Tebow....CRIED on National Television!  I LOVE IT!!!



I hear some people saying that "Don't make fun of him, he's just an emotional guy!"  You know what, I don't care about that.  Yea, it is great that he is an emotional guy and all.  It is what drives him to be as great as he is.  He wears his heart on his sleeve and all of that.  But c'mon, if you are THAT good, if you are the second coming, if you are Jesus himself, if you are the illegitimate son of Chuck Norris, if Superman wears YOUR pajamas, you need to SUCK IT UP AND ACT LIKE A MAN OUT THERE!!!!!!

I don't blame Tebow for all of this hype.  In a lot of ways the media built him up to something he cannot live up to, and that is not his fault. 

But I LOVED seeing those tears.  I cheered.  I yelled and screamed when I saw those tears on the TV, and apparently they made it onto the jumbotron in the stadium as well!  I loved it.  And I loved that it was ALABAMA that did it to him! 

Tim Tebow:  ultimate SHAD FACE!!!!!

Now, back to the game.

Straight up domination on the part of Alabama.  I never made an official blog prediction on the game, but It would have been Alabama 19-16.  There was no chance, NO CHANCE that Alabama would be able to control the ball on offense against the nation's top defense not wearing Crimson, and no way they could control that offense.  I knew they could contain it, but they completely stopped it!  They took away the big play, they got the key turnovers, and on offense, they just controlled the ball.  They lined up and said "ok we are running right at you, and now you stop it!"  They did not stop it.

I couldn't be happier

Oh, and Mark Ingram is squaely back in the Heisman discussions this week.  As well he should be.  Heisman's are season awards.  You shouldn't be able to lose it with one game (Auburn) but you also shouldn't win it based on one game.  He has a fantastic game against Florida, but that shouldn't win it.  What should win it is a season of dominance capped off by a final game of dominance. 

Same goes for McCoy.  Everyone wanted to give him the trophy after the Texas A&M game.  Now, no one wants to give it to him after the Nebraska game.  Look at his WHOLE SEASON!  Is it a worthy season?  Absolutely.  And anyone that votes for him will be well within their rights to do so.  I think Ingram is better and more important to his team that McCoy is to Texas, but I couldn't disagree with a McCoy selection.

Lots of little notes thrown into this post, sorry for that.  Hopefully later this week I can have some better posts for you all!

Week 7 Musings and Wrap Up

As I write this a couple of games are still going on but the week is mostly done.  Couple of thoughts.  Starting at the top of the polls:

1.  Florida great team but has some weaknesses

If I had a ballot, I would still be voting Florida number 1.  I love this Alabama team and am excited for a possible 1 vs 2 match up in Atlanta for the SEC title game, but Florida is a great team.  I think Tebow is still feeling some ill effects from the concussion and is just not himself yet.  Spikes has been hurt, Joe Haden has been hurt so that is two leaders off of that defense that have been out.  But two straight games with low offensive output gives hope for everyone else in the SEC that Florida might be beatable.  Florida gave up nearly as many points today as they had all season so far (20 today, 32 all year).  I think if Florida and Alabama played today, Florida would come in 2 point favorites, and it would be a defensive slugfest 13-10 type of game.  But more on Alabama in a bit.

2.  Texas - not a great team right now, but lot of promise

If Texas doesn't find a way to run the ball better, this is going to be a long end of the season for the longhorns.  Good news is that they just jumped their biggest hurdle today in Oklahoma.  They needed some lucky calls, turnovers, and an injury to Sam Bradford to do it though.  McCoy ended up with some ok numbers of 21/39 127 yards 1 TD 1 INT, but that is very unlike the QB that throws mostly short passes for a great than 70% completion percentage.  Of course when you can stop the run, you are a good team.  And i think allowing -16 rushing yards is pretty good.  When your second "leading" rusher has -2 yards, the defense did something right.  Back to back weeks on the road against Missouri and Oklahoma State over the next two weekends will go a long way in determining the season.  If they win these two, I don't see another team that can stop Texas until the BCS title game.

3.  Alabama - Showing Weakness?

I have been saying since Week 4 against Arkansas that Alabama isn't a great offensive team.  Sure, they won that game going away and are undefeated, but its not because of their offense.  McElroy hasn't had a great outing in a few weeks.  Certainly not in the past two games, but I don't think he has looked great since the North Texas game.  He relied on big plays against Arkansas which like I said at the time is not good long term, and against Kentucky he didn't show much until the last drive of the first half.
Of course the glowing exception to all of this is the running game, specifically Mark Ingram.  Ingram ran for 246 yards and one touchdown against South Carolina tonight including EVERY yard on the game clinching, clock killing 4th quarter drive.  EVERY play was either a direct snap or hand off to Ingram on that drive.  South Carolina knew what was coming, and they still couldn't stop it.  When the Heisman lists start coming out tomorrow and Monday, expect to see that name all over them.  But on defense, there is not another defense in the nation that is better than Alabama, and only Florida comes even close.  There may be 10 NFL players on that defense when all is said and done.  Hightower goes down, we replace him.  Arenas goes down, and we just fill in with another guy without missing a beat.

4.  Heisman --- do we have a leader?

Here are some of the top contenders:

1.  Tebow - not looking like himself
2.  McCoy - not looking like himself
3.  Pike - possibly injured
4.  Bradford - injured
5.  Clausen - possible contender (much as I hate to admit it)
6.  Best - He has sucked lately

I don't see anyone else other than now Mark Ingram.  Ingram has 905 yards, 3rd in the nation.  All the stats haven't been compiled yet, but his YPA will certainly go up, he added his 8th TD, he is also a weapon coming out of the backfield.  I don't see how anyone else can be considered a better candidate at this point in the season.  Notre Dame is not a good team, so that will kill Clausen's chances before the year is out.  No one on USC is good enough right now.  Tebow and McCoy will still be the favorites until their team's lose, but they are not having seasons worthy of Heisman consideration.  I do not think Ingram will win it no matter how well he does since there is no national campaign for him right now, but if he keeps this up he will have the stats for it.

5.   First BCS standings come out tomorrow:

It may be a meaningless mile marker, but the BCS standings will be out tomorrow.  Teams that start the standings 1 and 2 VERY rarely play each other in the BCS title game, and this season is likely to be no different.  Since Florida and Alabama would be very hard pressed to play in the SEC and BCS title games, its not gonna happen.  Here is what the Standings may look like, going by the Brad Edwards Mock BCS standings from last week and taking out some of the losing teams:

1.   Florida
2.   Alabama
3.   Texas
4.   Boise State
5.   USC
6.   LSU
7.   Cincinnati
8.   Iowa
9.   Miami
10. Georgia Tech

I think USC and LSU should both be ahead of Boise given their schedule and the way they have handled it this season.  They need to be KILLING people since they play no one but they don't do that.

Georgia Tech is a big of a stretch since they were 19th and 20th in the polls this weekend, but a good win over a very toug Virginia Tech team should be enough to jump them into the top 10.  Officially they are 2nd in the Coastal division, but if they are able to beat Virginia this weekend, they will have the head to head victory over every divisional contender on the season with a game at Duke all that remains.  In fact, the Yellow Jackets shouldn't be tested again until Thanksgiving weekend against Georgia.  Are they a dark horse BCS contender?

Iowa may be a team to watch out for this season.  They still have a game against Ohio State remaining, but they have a lot of the standard formula for a great team.  Good running game, veteran QB, and a stout defense.  Only time will tell

6.  Looking ahead to next weekend.

Not much doing for the midweek games sadly enough.  Florida State @ North Carolina on Thursday night may have looked better in the preseason but won't be for much right now.  Only matchup between ranked teams is likely to be TCU vs. BYU.  This is a big one for those who like BCS Busters vs. Those of us who do not.  Boise State travels to Hawaii in another BCS Buster special.  That game will be online @ ESPN360.com.  LSU vs. Auburn is usually a big matchup, but not so much this year at least not nationally.  But, it may be one of my favorite weeks of the season because.......

7.  IT'S TENNESSEE WEEK!!!!

God do I HATE Tennessee!  I had to root for them to beat Auburn a few weeks ago and it just made me sick to do it.  I cannot stand those Viles.  Maybe its only because I only know UT of the Phil Fulmer years.  I know the rivalry used to be about respect.  I know you always wanted to beat UT, but you didn't hate them.  All the old coaches would say "You find out how much of a man you are by how you play against Tennessee (or Alabama coming from the other side)."  But I don't know THAT Tennessee.  I only know the Tennessee of Fulmer and the "secret witness."  I will talk more this week about the Tennessee week and what it means to Alabama, but that's a little taste right now.

For the Alabama fans that read this blog:  Who do you hate more:  Auburn, Tennessee, or someone else?  I know LSU and Florida are hated too

Heisman Candidates

Three weeks have passed.  Just enough time to see how the top players are performing against usually vastly inferior talent levels.  Lets take a look at my top five Heisman candidates TODAY:

1.  Jahvid Best - California Running Back

Best began the season on the fringe of the Heisman discussion.  With the "Big 3" of Bradford, McCoy, and Tebow all coming back, it figured to be a tough nut to crack to get into the discussion.  But Best is that good.  Best is 3rd in the nation in rushing with 412 yards and 1st in touchdowns with 9, and that is with teams keying on him.  If you read my blog you know I LOVE Best.  He tends to make his way into most of my posts.  But he deserves it.  This guy has all the skills to be a Heisman contender and a top end first round pick in the NFL draft.  I don't think he will win the award overall because it will take so much to overtake McCoy and Tebow nationally, and west coast players are hardly ever on TV during the day on the east coast so voters don't really ever see you play.  But right now, no one has played better than Jahvid Best.

2.  Colt McCoy - Texas Quaterback

McCoy was a popular pick for Heisman winner at the start of the season with both Bradford and Tebow already having one.  Plus, people will be very hard-pressed to vote another multiple winner.  It may happen with Tebow if the Gators do go undefeated, but it will take a fantastic statistical season which he isn't having so far.  Colt sits 9th in the nation with 859 yards, but only 6 touchdowns which is tied for 13th nationally.  Colt also isn't rushing very much this season.  He led the horns on the ground last season, but has just 46 yards on the ground.  But that is more because he actually has a quality running game this season than it is anything against Colt's abilities.  The Horns sit positioned for the BCS title game and as long as that doesn't change, McCoy will stay near the top of the race.

3.  Tony Pike - Cincinnati Quarterback

You might not have heard of Tony Pike before this season, but I'll guarantee you will by the end of it.  Pike sits 8th nationally in passing with 923 yards and 8 touchdowns, tied for 5th.  The Bearcats have the disadvantage of playing in the Big East and by playing a mostly weak out of conference schedule.  But they are beating who they are supposed to beat in ways they are supposed to win.  They embarassed Rutgers @ Rutgers on opening weekend and throttled SE Missouri State in week 2.  Lets not forget winning across the country @ Oregon State last weekend.  Pike will have at least two more chances to play on national television to impress the voters.

4.  Tim Tebow - Florida Quarteback

I actually have a hard time putting Tebow into this category at this point in the season, but I'll admit, I have to vote with history on this one.  The Great One sits just 67th in passing with 540 yards, but he's also only thrown the ball 58 times.  At 9.3 yards/attempt, he would fall near the top of the NCAA in that category......I couldn't find the official stat, but I only saw four quarterbacks averaging more than 10 YPA.  Tebow's 5 TDs are tied for just 27th as well, but again, not many attempts to go with so far.  Tebow has really only played one full game since the Gators blew out their first two opponents.  Until he costs Florida a game and they drop from the BCS picture, he has to stay in the top five.

5.  Jake Locker - Washington Quarterback

I can't think of one player who has effected his team's fortunes more than Locker.  The Huskies go from win-less one season, and beating USC in the next with the only real difference being a healthy Locker.  If you remember, Washington nearly defeated BYU to start the 2008 season before Locker went down, but a phantom excessive celebration call helped Washington miss an overtime extra point.  Locker is 11th nationally in passing with 811 yards and tied for 27th with 5tds.  With only a 7.7 yards/attempt average however, dont' expect to see Locker on the short list of Heisman candidates UNLESS Washington somehow makes the Rose Bowl - which they do control their own destiny for at this point.  But that's about as likely as Sports Illustrated calling me telling me they love my blog and want me to write for them!  But for now, the leader of the hottest team in CFB right now deserves to make the short list.

On the edge:
Taylor Potts - Texas Tech Quarterback
Jacory Harris - Miami Quarterback
Daryll Clark - Penn State Quarterback
Ryan Mallett - Arkansas Quarterback
Kellen Moore - Boise State Quarterback
Ryan Williams - Virginia Tech Running Back
Evan Royster - Penn State Running Back