Heisman Handicapping

Yesterday, ESPN announced the five college football players who would be making the trip to New York for the Heisman trophy presentation:

1.  Toby Gerhart, RB Stanford
2.  Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
3.  Colt McCoy, QB Texas
4.  Ndomukong Suh, DT Nebraska
5.  Tim Tebow, QB Florida

Here is a little rundown on each player and why he should win the award

1.  Toby Gerhart:

311 Carries
1,736 Yards
26 Touchdown

Why He Should Win:

Gerhart has been the most consistent running back this season in all of NCAA Division 1A football.  He leads the league in both yards and touchdowns.  He had at least 100 yards in all but 2 games this season and those games were of 82 and 96 yards respectively.  Stanford has come back to national recognition this season, and Gerhart is the primary reason for this.  He is a powerful runner who looks to be a great pro prospect as well as a fantastic college back.

Why He Should Not Win:

Gerhart's team is 8-4 on the season and did not win its conference.  The Pac-10 does not have divisions, but even if they did Stanford's 4th place finish would not have gotten them into the game.  He is the only player among the top 5 that did not play for a conference title, and really in the top 8 if you consider Kellen Moore (Boise), Dion Lewis (Pitt) and C.J. Spiller (Clemson) in the mix.  No player has won the Heisman on a team with at least 4 losses since 1987 (Tim Brown, Notre Dame).  Gerhart also led the nation in carries, so his yards and touchdown numbers are skewed because of that .  His yard per carry average of 5.6 that ranks just 50th in the NCAA.  In both games Gerhart rushed for under 100 yards, his team lost.  So yes that shows that he is critical to his team's success, but it also shows that when his team needs him the most, he doesn't show up.

2.  Mark Ingram

249 Attempts
1,542 Yards
15 Touchdowns

Why He Should Win:

Mark Ingram has been the leader for the nations number one team, and that should count for something.  Ingram's yards rank him 5th in the NCAA, and his 15 touchdowns put him 14th, and his yards per attempt put him 26th nationally.  For a stretch in the middle of the season, Ingram led Alabama by himself to some hard fought victories against SEC competition while QB Greg McElroy was going through a midseason slump.  Ingram is the best player on the best team in the nation.

Why He Should Not Win:

Ingram has not been very consistent this season at all.  He has 8 games with at least 100 yards rushing, but 5 games under 100 (Tennessee was close with 99 yards).  The most notable bad game was Auburn.  Ingram had just 30 yards rushing on 16 carries and was noticeably absent from the field late in the game.  True, he did get hurt, but that happened very late and was not related to his injury.  Other than Auburn however, each games Ingram was under 99 yards were all in blowouts where he was pulled late to give more carries to Trent Richardson.  But speaking of Richardson, he is probably a better back than Ingram is.  Can you really give the Heisman to the 2nd best back on a team?  Sure his numbers are better, but watching Richardson run is like watching magic on the football field.  Ingram is more just pound it up the middle and run you over.  It should also be noted that no Alabama player has ever won the Heisman trophy.

3.  Colt McCoy

3,512 Yards
27 Touchdowns
147.46 rating

Why He Should Win:

Colt McCoy has had the most consistent career among any of the finalists.  Texas has been a national power in each of McCoy's four seasons at starter and that is primarily thanks to him.  For the last couple of seasons, McCoy has had no running game to speak of and yet, have only lost one game - which was a one point road loss to Texas Tech last season.  For two seasons in a row, McCoy has led the Longhorns in rushing attempts, and last season also led them in yards.  This year, McCoy is 3rd nationally in completion percentage, 6th in yards, 8th in touchdowns, and 18th in passing efficiency.  Combined with his rushing stats, and McCoy can't mean more to his team than any other player.

Why He Should Not Win:

Colt McCoy hasn't really don't anything this season to win him the award.  His "Heisman Moment" was a great offensive performance against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving.  But should a great win over a 6-6 team really be your "moment?"  I don't think so.  Combine that with McCoy's pitiful performance in the Big 12 title game, and there really is no reason in the 2009 season to give Colt this award.  However, McCoy was considered one of the "Big 3" coming into the season along with Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford.  Tebow and Bradford each won their trophies, so now it is McCoy's turn as long as he didn't mess up.  And he did not mess it up.  However, the Heisman is not supposed to be a career achievement award, it is a season award.  And McCoy's season really doesn't even make him a top five worthy candidate.


4.  Ndamukong Suh

82 Tackles
12 Sacks
1 Int

Why He Should Win:

Simply, Suh is probably the most dominant performer in all of NCAA football this season.  Suh is 3rd in the nation in sacks with 12 and a total of 82 tackles.  That may not be alot of tackles, but his job is gap control on running plays taking on the double team.  That frees up your linebackers to make the tackles.  Suh simply cannot be blocked by just one player and teams are forced to gameplan around him.  If the award is truly for the most outstanding player in the game, Suh fits that to a T.

Why He Should Not Win:

Suh is a defensive player.  No true defender has ever won the award in modern football.  Charles Woodson of Michigan in 1997 was primarily a defensive player, but he got a lot of his numbers on punt return yardage which really helped him win the award.  Suh does not have a lot of tackles, but again, he is not supposed to in that defensive scheme.  If Nebraska had beaten Texas in the Big 12 title game, I would say Suh had a legit shot.  However, since they did not, I don 't see a lot of first place votes going to Suh.  He just doesn't have the numbers a Heisman winner needs to have.

Tim Tebow

2,413 Yards
18 Touchdowns
155.59 Rating

Why He Should Win:

Tim Tebow has been the most outstanding player in college football over the past three seasons hands down.  He has lost just twice in the past two seasons and is the unquestioned leader of the Florida Gators.  Tebow's passing numbers do not totally do him justice since we all know it is his legs that make him the player he is.  Tebow's 203 carries are more than double that of the next highest Gator (Jeffery Demps 96) and he leads the team in yards as well.  His 13 touchdowns on the ground also lead the team.  Tebow is the SEC record holder for rushing touchdowns, a record to obtained this season against Georgia.  Tim Tebow is what is right about college football.  We can hate him if we want to, but he is a great role model, he is a great person, and he will be a success in life after his days at Florida are over.

Why He Should Not Win:

Because this season, Tebow was not Tebow for much of the season.  After his concussion vs. Kentucky, he just wasn't the same for several weeks.  Maybe that isn't totally fair, but it has to be considered.  The "Mighty Gators" nearly lost to SEC West bottom feeder Mississippi State and perpetual "also-ran" Arkansas and really needed some Zebra help to beat Arkansas late.  Tebow's SEC title performance was horrible as Alabama simply controlled that game and Tebow.  The Alabama defense is JUST THAT GOOD though, but a Heisman winner should be able to overcome it.  Tebow's celebrated career should not end with the fairy tale Heisman trophy, and WILL not end with a national championship.

The GURU's prediction:

This should be the tightest race in Heisman history.  There was really no "Heisman Moment" for any player this season and no one really separated himself from the field.  Gerhart is the most dominant on offense, but his team wasn't nearly as good as the rest.  Ingram and McCoy's teams are undefeated and playing for the title and they are the unquestioned leaders, however their numbers are good not great by Heisman standards.  Suh is the most dominant but plays an unflashy defensive postion, and Tebow just didn't show up this season, but is the most celebrated player in college football history.  If I had a ballot, here is what it would look like:

1.  Mark Ingram
2.  Toby Gerhart
3.  Colt McCoy
4.  Ndamukong Suh
5.  C.J. Spiller
6.  Tim Tebow
7.  Kellen Moore
8.  Dion Lewis
9.  Andy Dalton

I have been going back and forth for days of this, but this is how I think it will shake out:

1.  Toby Gerhart
2.  Mark Ingram
3.  Colt McCoy
4.  Ndamukong Suh
5.  Tim Tebow

All I really know, Tebow should be 5th place.  But you can make a case for any of the other top four in any order, and I could not totally disagree with you.

Make sure to watch the ceremony on Saturday night and find out for yourself!

Week 12 Games of the Week: Rivalry Week Part 1

Well its that time of year, the beginning of rivalry week.  Well, its more like a rivalry two weeks now, but still.  Not too much going on with the national landscape this week.  The top teams are all playing unranked opponents with Texas vs. Kansas being the only game that looks like it might even be close.  With that in mind, here are my top five games of the week.

5.  Kentucky @ Georgia 6:45 Central ESPN2

See, I told you it was a slow week didn't I? 

Georgia is favored by 8.5 in this game, and on paper should probably win this game by about 35 points.  But this is a weird season.  The scores in alot of Kentucky's games haven't looked great, but they have been in almost every game other than the Florida game.  Georgia will be missing safety Bacarri Rambo because of this jarring hit against Auburn last weekend

and will also be missing A.J. Green after injuring himself in that same game.  And this UGA offense pretty much runs through Green.  A.J. has 751 receiving yards - 284 is the next highest.  Green has 47 catches - 21 is next.  Thankfully Washaun Ealey has been stepping up nicely in the running game with Richard Samuel and Caleb King being at best moderately productive.  I see a Georgia cover in this game with the running game being able to gas holes in the Kentucky defense - but not by much.  24-14.

4.  Penn State @ Michigan State

The battle for the Land Grant Trophy.  Side note:  does every Big 10 game have a trophy attached to it?

Anyways, back to the game.  I haven't really paid much attention to either team this year because, well, its the Big 10 and who cares anyways.  Both teams are bowl eligible so its more for seeding than anything else.  Although, Penn State does still have an outside shot at getting a BCS bid.  Michigan State never really got a leading running back this season, and that's not good for the Big 10.  Kirk Cousins at quarterback has been more than serviceable, but still not great.  Penn State has a top level quarterback in Daryl Clark, and a top level running back in Evan Royster.  Royster didn't end up with Heisman like numbers that he could have had earlier in the season, but nevertheless he is a great back.  Penn State is favored by 3, and they should really blow that out of the water without a problem.  35-13.

3.  Cal @ Stanford 6:30 (no network listed on ESPN, but i suspect this will be on Vs.)

The Game!  We couldn't possibly talk about Cal Stanford without talking about, THE PLAY:

Or, if you are looking for a more fun version of the play, here you go:

Not much has changed from the preseason with this game.  I would have called for a blowout then, and I will do the same now.  Only difference is I would have told you Cal was get the blowout then, now I think Stanford will be the ones on top.  Stanford has a dark horse Heisman candidate in Toby Gerhart at running back, and budding super star quarterback in Andrew Luck.  Whalen and Owusu are top level receivers to compliment those two.  For Cal, an injured Jhavid Best pretty much seals the fate of this one.  Stanford favored by 7, not enough.  42-24.

2.  LSU @ Ole Miss 3:30 CBS

The SEC Game of the Week will almost always make my top five list.  Not that I'm biased or anything.  I don't imagine this game will live up to the 1959 classic battle of top five teams and Heisman Winner Billy Cannon's punt return, but we can always dream

LSU is sitting right now pretty much where Ole Miss was predicted to be in the preseason.  Ole Miss has not really lived up to all the hype, but last week they did demolish Tennessee.  Although that team was facing some pretty heavy distractions with the whole armed robbery thing.  LSU as been hit with the injury bug, but Jordon Jefferson should be ready to go.  Same can't be said for Charles Scott who's injury is a little more serious.  Ole Miss is just such a random team this year.  Will you get the team that got dominated by Auburn, or the one that dominated Tennessee?  The one that dominated Arkansas, or the one that somehow lost to South Carolina?  Ole Miss is actually favored in this game surprisingly enough.  Lot of stock being put into the team after last weekend.  I don't see lightening sticking twice however.  LSU 20-13.

1.  Ohio State @ Michigan

Hate week at its best!  I don't care if both of these teams are 0-11 heading in, this is must see TV.

Ohio State's post season trip is booked already.  They know they are going to the Rose Bowl no matter what happens in the Michigan game.  Do you think they will rest their starters?  In a word, no.  Pryor and Company want nothing more than to STOMP the Wolverines.  Michigan comes in with a four game losing streak, also losing 6 of 7 after starting 4-0.  So if you can do the math, you know that Michigan needs a win Saturday to become bowl eligible.  This kinda has that feel that the Alabama vs. Auburn game had last year.  Alabama had the SEC title game looming, and Auburn needed a win to go bowling.  Alabama won that game 36-0.  I don't see a score like that in the future, but I do see a convincing Ohio State victory.  My initial thought was Buckeyes by about 13 - and Vegas put this one at a 12.5 point spread.  So its gonna be a tough one to pick.  On one hand, once the game is in hand the Buckeyes will probably put some starters on the bench.  But its not like they have a game to get ready for.  Its only November and the Rose Bowl isn't until New Years.  I don't pick this with a terrible amount of confidence, but I do see Ohio State with a close cover 24-10.

It might not be a week for nationally relevant games, but it is nearing the end of the season, and rivalries are THE BEST this time of year.  Anything can happen in a game like Ohio State/Michigan or Cal/Stanford.  Stay tuned, its gonna be a great weekend ahead.

Week 4 Picks of the Week

That time of the week again.  Lets take a look at my top five picks against the spread for Week 4:

Last Week:  2-3  Season 2-3

1.  Wake Forest @ Boston College (+2) 1:00 pm CDT espn360.com (online only)

Don't be scared of Boston College because of what happened last weekend against Clemson (25-7 loss).  Clemson is a good football team.  But this BC team is as well.  They just have to decide on a quarter back.  I like Justin Tuggle.  I know his stats haven't been great overall, but that is mostly because of the Clemson game.  take out Clemson, and he is 9-17 206 yards and most importantly, 3 TD and 0 int.  On the road at Clemson....4-20 23 yards 1 TD and 3 INT. But he is a 19 year old freshman in his first road start.  He will be back at home this weekend.  Coach Spaziani has said he might play another quarterback this weekend, but I don't think so.  I just hope this doesn't get under the young man's skin and he presses too much.  Close BC win at home 24-21.

2. Michigan State (+10) @ Wisconsin 11:00 am ESPN

I like the way MSU played against Notre Dame last weekend, and frankly think they should have won the game.  Had they not thrown the ball away at the end of regulation they would at least have likely taken it into overtime.  I like what I see in Kirk Cousins outside of that pass vs. Notre Dame (46-70 649 yards 5 TD 1 INT).  He is just a sophomore though.  And in the Big 10, it comes down to the running game.  Their two headed monster of Caulton Ray and Larry Caper have combined for 56 carries and 263 yards which isn't great, but should be enough to get it done with a good game from Cousins.  I like Wisconsin to the win the game at home, but ten points way too much.  17-13.

3.   Army (+10) @ Iowa State 6:00 pm College Sports Direct (online only)

This pick isn't so much about what I know about Army, but more what I know about Iowa State  Iowa State is terrible.  5-19 over the past two seasons.  They are 2-1 however this year (so i guess 7-20 now) but those wins are against North Dakota State and Kent State.  They cupboard is bare at Iowa State, and they aren't worthy of being 10 point favorites.  Army is also 2-1 on the season with wins over Eastern Michigan and Ball State.  A 35-19 loss to Duke, a team which lost to Richmond to start the season, is a little bit scary I will grant you, but I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that one.  Army has gone back to basics with the running game.  Four different backs have rushed for over 100 yards on the season and they have six touchdowns on the ground.  I like Army to pull the upset in this game 17-16.  If not, at least to stay within the 10 points.

4.  California (-6) @ Oregon 2:30 pm ABC

Oregon is beginning to recover from their open weekend loss to Boise State, especially with their 31-24 win over Utah, but they aren't there yet.  They have major questions in the passing game, and the running game is in the hands of a rookie who didn't figure to factor much into the offense at the start of the season.  They are not ready to beat a team like Cal.  Jahvid Best is the real deal at running back for Cal and he will have a BIG day against this Duck defense.  All QB Kevin Riley has to do is manage the game, and Cal should have this game over before the 4th quarter really starts.  Cal also NEEDS a statement style victory to really factor into the national picture.  USC is still the big team in the state no matter what the Golden Bears seem to do, so if they want to be talked about in the same context before their head to head matchup in two weeks, they need this to be a big win for a confidence builder.  Lets just hope they haven't been looking too far ahead and forgot about the Ducks though.  I don't think they do that.  I like Cal on the road with a 34-17 win.

5.  Washington (+7) @ Stanford 8:00 FCS Pacific.

So let me get this straight:  you beat USC, the BIG DOGS of the Pac-10 one week, and you come in 7 point UNDERDOGS to STANFORD the next!  Sorry, Homey Don't Play Dat.  Washington is going to avoid a major letdown loss and I think will crush Stanford.  Now I will say, QB Andrew Luck is the real deal.  Luck was an ESPN 150 recruit coming out of High School and played in the ESPN All-American game back in 2008.  And lets not forget about Toby Gerhart at running back.  Luck already has 639 pass yards, and Gerhart has 316 on the ground, but lets not kid ourselves, Stanford hasn't played anyone yet.  They did play on the road @ Wake Forest, but they lost the game.  Wins against Washington State and San Jose State don't prove anything yet.  I think Stanford is a good football team, but if Washington can beat USC (not to mention nearly beat LSU), they can certainly take care of Stanford.  We have to worry about the letdown after beating a big time opponent, but I don't see it.  Coach Sark will not allow for that.  Huskies 31, Cardinal 27.

Here they are.  I am most concerned with my pick of Army and least concerned with my pick of Cal.  I was more confident with my Washington pick until I dug a little deeper into Stanford and saw that they really have looked good on paper this year, but they will get it done.  So take the picks, give me yours, rip mine apart, I don't care.  Just let me know what you think.