Week 5 Picks of the Week

Not off to a great start to my prognostication season, but looking for a rebound this weekend:

Last Week:  2-3  Season 4-6

1.  South Florida (-6.5) @ Syracuse 11:00 AM CDT espn360.com

The Bulls are a little big of a question mark at this point in the season.  True, they are 4-0 but three of those wins are against Wofford, Western Kentucky, and Charleston Southern.  However, they did destroy all three of those teams.  Now last weekend, a 17-7 win over Florida State sort of legitimized this squad.  And that was with QB Matt Grothe out.  Grothe will be out for the rest of the season, so its up to B.J. Daniels to lead the Bulls.  He doesn't have the biggest stats, but Junior running back Mike Ford is starting to see some snaps.  The Former 5 star recruit has all the talent in the world and will be a dominate back this season. In one start, along with some mop up duty, Daniels is 20 of 36 for 394 with 4 TD and 2 INT.  Daniels also leads the team in rushing with 259 yards.  Syracuse is actually starting to turn their season around some with wins over Northwestern and a big win over Maine last weekend.  South Florida is just too strong and too fast, I like the Bulls 34-17.

2.  East Carolina (-2.5) @ Marshall 11:00 AM CBS College Sports

The Pirates are 2-2 on the season winning the games they are supposed to win, and losing the ones they are supposed to lose.  Senior QB Patrick Pinkney hasn't had the best season to this point, but has some big wins to his credit in his career.  Marshall is a surprising 3-1 on the season with their only loss @ Virginia Tech and with wins over Southern Illinios, Bowling Green, and surprisingly @ Memphis last weekend.  Memphis kept it close for a while against Ole Miss, but that might not be nearly as surprising as once thought at this point.  Darius Marshall is a clear number 1 running back, and QB Brian Anderson is playing very well.  I like the Pirates to win this one, though not as big as I was originally thinking 24-17.

3.  Virginia Tech (-16.5) @ Duke 11:00 AM espn360.com

Virginia Tech is coming off of a BIG win over Miami last weekend in one of the surprise games of the weekend.  They had to survive against Nebraska the week before and looked pretty awful against Alabama in week 1.  QB Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked all that impressive so far this season, but at least he isn't turning the ball over all that much with a 4-1 TD/INT ratio.  Ryan Williams at running back has been the surprise of the season for the Hokies to this point and he looks to be rolling just fine with 3 100 yard or more games in a row.  Duke is pretty terrible, although they did beat North Carolina Central pretty handily last weekend.  But an opening weekend loss to Richmond doesn't look very good.  I like Virginia Tech 38-6.

4.  Penn State (-7) @ Illinois 2:30 PM ABC

I realize Joe Paterno hates to talk about revenge in college football, but his team will want it after their game last weekend.  Penn State NEEDS to win and win big for the rest of the season if they want a chance to stay in the national title picture.  They are likely out, but anything is possible.  The weather can't possibly be any worse than it was last weekend, so Daryl Clark should do better from the QB spot.  Illinois is pretty bad this season, but they probably shouldn't be.  Other than a big win over Illinois State, the Illini has given up 67 points and scored just 9 in their two other games vs. Missouri and @ Ohio State.  Juice Williams has been horrible with no touchdowns yet this season, and Arrelious Benn has just five catches on the season.  Those two have all  the talent in the world and will get better, but not this weekend.  Penn State wins 24-7.

5.  Arkansas (+1) vs Texas A&M (Neutral Site @ Jerry World) 6:30 PM ESPN

Other than getting dominated at Alabama, the Razorbacks have looked good this season.  Domination against Missouri State was not unexpected, but playing well against Georgia putting up 41 points was a little unexpected.  QB Ryan Mallet will put up some big numbers against the less talented Aggie defense, and running back Michael Smith will gash holes in the porous Aggie defensive line.  A&M is 3-0 on the season, but those wins are against New Mexico, Utah STate, and UAB.  Arkansas is already very battle tested.  The Aggies are led by Jenior QB Jerrod Johnson how is 2nd, but just barely, on the team in rushing.  Texas A&M wants a big win to finally get recognized on the national stage, but I don't think it will happen.  I actually look for a pretty big Arkansas victory in this game, 24-13.

Alabama vs. Arkansas: Post Game Analysis

As a matter of full disclosure, I did not watch this game.  Since 2001 I have only not been able to watch, listen, or go to live exactly 3 games - UTEP in 2001, 2006 Vandy (and that was a computer issue), and then this afternoon.  But I watched the GameCast, and got updates as best I could, so this update will be done as best as is possible.


Despite what the 35-7 final score might indicate, Alabama was quite sluggish in this game punting on all three first quarter possessions.  Different story in the second quarter though with back to back scoring drives.  Alabama was driving down the field well before Trent Richardson broke four tackles and busted 52 yards for the first touchdown.  Then, after forcing an Arkansas punt, we had "The Play."  Wildcat snap to Ingram, Jet Sweep handoff to Terry Grant, Pitch Back to normal QB Greg McElroy, and a bomb to Julio Jones down the middle of the field.  But after that play, two more first half punts, followed by a 3rd quarter punt before the 80 yard TD strike to Marquis Maze.

By the end of the game however, Bama just simply out talented the Hogs and ended up dominating in the end.

While I love the big play, it doesn't actually show what your team is capable of, and that is what happened to Alabama this afternoon.  Sure they look great, but if you have to rely on trick plays, broken tackles, and missed tackles, it isn't a formula for long term success.  While I'm happy with the win for sure, I'm not happy with the way we got to it done on offense; at least not early in the game.  Now defense!  There is another story.  Outside of MAYBE Florida there is not a better defense in the nation than Alabama.  The injury to Donta Hightower could hurt the defense, but there will be someone who can step into that role for sure.  It will just be a matter of who.

But a 35-7 win can't be all bad.  Greg McElroy had a career game(17-24 291 yards 3 touchdowns).  That kid just keeps getting better and better and may find his name on the Heisman Trophy list by the end of the season.  The emergence of Trent Richardson continues, Julio Jones caught his first touchdown since the Georgia game last season, and the defense looks simply amazing.  Once again the Tide racked up over 400 yards of offense.  Penalties are a slight problem with another 7 today however.  Alabama has a very strong case to be named #1 in the nation and will likely get some votes in the poll this week.  I still think #3 is the proper spot for Alabama behind Florida and Texas however.

Next up for Alabama, a morning tilt vs. Kentucky on the road next weekend.  I will be there sampling the local fare and watching what I hope will be a major, dominating, Alabama victory.

Week 4 Games of the Week:

Week 3 is in the books, so now it's time for the Week 4 Games of the Week!

Last Week: 4-1:  Season Total 4-1


5.  Texas Tech @ #17 Houston 8:15 p.m CDT Espn2
If you are a fan of offense and not so much of defense, this game will be for you.  The scoreboard operator is likely to have a heart attack in this game.  Houston has had two weeks to prepare for this game after their stunning upset of then #5 Oklahoma State and is averaging 50 ppg.  QB Case Keenum has a 7-1 TD/INT ratio in just two games with 725 yards passing.  This is the toughest game left on the Houston schedule so if they can pull it out, a BCS bid is possible.  They still have Road games @ Mississippi State, Tulsa, and UCF along with Southern Miss and Memphis at home, but Texas Tech is by far the toughest contest remaining.  Speaking of Tech, they aren't doing too bad themselves on offense.  The Red Raiders are "only" averaging 39 ppg, but QB Taylor Potts has taken over the offense just fine.  Potts has 1,281 yards in three games carrying a 12-4 (3-1) TD/INT ratio.  And three of those four picks were in the first game which was his first career start.  In the Texas game, Potts looked great too.  Its at home for the Cougars and they have had two weeks to prepare---I give it to Houston 49-42.

4.  Iowa @ #5 Penn State 7:00 PM ABC
This game really should have been played last week were it seemed as though every game was a revenge game.  Iowa gave the Nittany Lions their only regular season loss with a last second field goal destroying their BCS Title chances But this game wasn't totally on my radar until it was announced that College Gameday would be attending the game in Happy Valley.  Penn State has look about as impressive as any top team.  But when you're best opponent is at toss-up between Akron and Syracuse, we don't know anything about you yet.  RB Evan Royster is playing well finally and QB Daryll Clark has looked very efficient with an 8-3 TD/INT ratio.  Iowa comes in 3-0 but hasn't looked very good doing it.  The Hawkeyes had to block the last second field goal of Northern Iowa on opening weekend not once but TWICE to preserve the victory.  They did destroy Iowa State on the road and had a quality victory vs. Arizona last weekend, but they just don't "feel" like a 3-0 team.  I think Penn State exacts revenge for last season and wins BIG over Iowa 35-6

3.  Arkansas @ #3 Alabama 2:30 CBS

The SEC schedule opens for Alabama this weekend with the Razorbacks coming into town.  Alabama looks unstoppable on offense this season with an efficient quarterback in Greg McElroy, and any of three running backs that could be considered a starter on most teams.  Mark Ingram leads the way with 297 yards over 3 games and a 6.8 YPC average, but Freshman Trent Richardson isn't far behind with 215 yards and is leading the team with a 7.4 YPC average.  Ingram actually leads the team in receptions with 10.  Sophomore Julio Jones should be ready to go against Arkansas giving McElroy the probably 3rd best receiver  (Dez Bryant, A.J. Green) in the NCAA back to throw to.  Jones hasn't gotten into the endzone since the Georgia game last season and will be hungry to get back there now.  Arkansas looked pretty great against Georgia last weekend though scoring 41 points on what is supposed to be a great defense.  QB Ryan Mallett, a Michigan transfer, is so far living up to his lofty projections coming out of High School with 717 yards in just two games with a 6-0 TD/INT ratio.  But he hasn't faced a defense as strong as Alabama's yet.  Senior RB Michael Smith hasn't shown much yet this year in limited attempts, but with Mallett at QB this is a pass first defense.  Alabama typically dominates that type of team, so I look for a 27-14 Alabama victory on Saturday.

2.  #6 California @ Oregon 2:30 ABC
This game looked a lot more appealing in the preseason when people actually thought Oregon was going to be a true contender.  But a miserable showing and LaGarrette Blount punch later, and Oregon is reeling a little bit.  RB LaMichael James is doing his best to fill in for the suspended Blount but he's just a freshman and it will take time.  Although he did have 152 yards against Utah last weekend.  QB Jeremiah Masoli hasn't looked good however so he either needs to improve dramatically or the running game really needs to be that dominant.  As for Cal, they have looked impressive.  The Maryland win may not be as impressive given that they have since lost to MTSU for the second straight year, but convincing wins over Eastern Washington and on the road @ Minnesota convince he that was more a product of how good Cal is, not how bad Maryland is.  QB Kevin Riley has this offense clicking with an efficient passing attack and a 5-0 TD/INT ratio.  But the Golden Bears really live and die by the play of Jahvid Best.  Best has played better than expected so far this year aleady collecting 412 yards and 8 touchdowns with an astonishing 7.8 YPC.  Best is no longer just a fringe Heisman candidate, he may be the leader early in the season.  The game is in Oregon, but that won't be enough for the Ducks to hold off the Golden Bears 35-17

1.  #9 Miami @ #11 Virginia Tech 2:30 ABC

The only game of the week feature two top 25 teams against each other has to be the game of the week.  Why College Gameday isn't there I'll probably never know --- they didn't respond to my tweet ----- but it is my pick for game of the week for sure.  The Hokies are just 2-1 on the season, but that loss was to a then #5, now #3 Alabama team.  It did take a last second touchdown to get past Nebraska however, so they could well be 1-2 on the season.  Maybe that's why Gameday isn't up in Blacksburg?  Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked great so far only achieving a 50% completion percentage once on the year (Marshall week 2) but he doesn't turn it over often with a 3-1 TD/INT ratio.  Ryan Williams does have back to back 100 yard games on the ground though.  Miami comes in looking as good as they have in years.  All the analysts said if the Hurricanes could come out of the start of the season with a 2-2 record it would be a victory for the program.  Well, they have guaranteed that already starting out 2-0.  Jacory Harris, one of the Miami Northwestern High School 8 from a couple years ago, has looked simply fantastic from the quarterback position hitting on 41-of-59 passes with a 5/2 TD/INT ratio Graig Cooper and Javarris James carry the load at running back.  The running back is a slight issue for the Canes because there is no true standout back there, but if Harris has progressed as much as he looked like he has it shouldn't matter.  If Miami can keep the Hokies from making a big play on special teams, they should win this game.  And I think they will do it in a slugfest 24-17.

That's it for the picks this week.  Check in tomorrow for my top five picks against the spread.