Week 12 Games of the Week: Rivalry Week Part 1

Well its that time of year, the beginning of rivalry week.  Well, its more like a rivalry two weeks now, but still.  Not too much going on with the national landscape this week.  The top teams are all playing unranked opponents with Texas vs. Kansas being the only game that looks like it might even be close.  With that in mind, here are my top five games of the week.

5.  Kentucky @ Georgia 6:45 Central ESPN2

See, I told you it was a slow week didn't I? 

Georgia is favored by 8.5 in this game, and on paper should probably win this game by about 35 points.  But this is a weird season.  The scores in alot of Kentucky's games haven't looked great, but they have been in almost every game other than the Florida game.  Georgia will be missing safety Bacarri Rambo because of this jarring hit against Auburn last weekend

and will also be missing A.J. Green after injuring himself in that same game.  And this UGA offense pretty much runs through Green.  A.J. has 751 receiving yards - 284 is the next highest.  Green has 47 catches - 21 is next.  Thankfully Washaun Ealey has been stepping up nicely in the running game with Richard Samuel and Caleb King being at best moderately productive.  I see a Georgia cover in this game with the running game being able to gas holes in the Kentucky defense - but not by much.  24-14.

4.  Penn State @ Michigan State

The battle for the Land Grant Trophy.  Side note:  does every Big 10 game have a trophy attached to it?

Anyways, back to the game.  I haven't really paid much attention to either team this year because, well, its the Big 10 and who cares anyways.  Both teams are bowl eligible so its more for seeding than anything else.  Although, Penn State does still have an outside shot at getting a BCS bid.  Michigan State never really got a leading running back this season, and that's not good for the Big 10.  Kirk Cousins at quarterback has been more than serviceable, but still not great.  Penn State has a top level quarterback in Daryl Clark, and a top level running back in Evan Royster.  Royster didn't end up with Heisman like numbers that he could have had earlier in the season, but nevertheless he is a great back.  Penn State is favored by 3, and they should really blow that out of the water without a problem.  35-13.

3.  Cal @ Stanford 6:30 (no network listed on ESPN, but i suspect this will be on Vs.)

The Game!  We couldn't possibly talk about Cal Stanford without talking about, THE PLAY:

Or, if you are looking for a more fun version of the play, here you go:

Not much has changed from the preseason with this game.  I would have called for a blowout then, and I will do the same now.  Only difference is I would have told you Cal was get the blowout then, now I think Stanford will be the ones on top.  Stanford has a dark horse Heisman candidate in Toby Gerhart at running back, and budding super star quarterback in Andrew Luck.  Whalen and Owusu are top level receivers to compliment those two.  For Cal, an injured Jhavid Best pretty much seals the fate of this one.  Stanford favored by 7, not enough.  42-24.

2.  LSU @ Ole Miss 3:30 CBS

The SEC Game of the Week will almost always make my top five list.  Not that I'm biased or anything.  I don't imagine this game will live up to the 1959 classic battle of top five teams and Heisman Winner Billy Cannon's punt return, but we can always dream

LSU is sitting right now pretty much where Ole Miss was predicted to be in the preseason.  Ole Miss has not really lived up to all the hype, but last week they did demolish Tennessee.  Although that team was facing some pretty heavy distractions with the whole armed robbery thing.  LSU as been hit with the injury bug, but Jordon Jefferson should be ready to go.  Same can't be said for Charles Scott who's injury is a little more serious.  Ole Miss is just such a random team this year.  Will you get the team that got dominated by Auburn, or the one that dominated Tennessee?  The one that dominated Arkansas, or the one that somehow lost to South Carolina?  Ole Miss is actually favored in this game surprisingly enough.  Lot of stock being put into the team after last weekend.  I don't see lightening sticking twice however.  LSU 20-13.

1.  Ohio State @ Michigan

Hate week at its best!  I don't care if both of these teams are 0-11 heading in, this is must see TV.

Ohio State's post season trip is booked already.  They know they are going to the Rose Bowl no matter what happens in the Michigan game.  Do you think they will rest their starters?  In a word, no.  Pryor and Company want nothing more than to STOMP the Wolverines.  Michigan comes in with a four game losing streak, also losing 6 of 7 after starting 4-0.  So if you can do the math, you know that Michigan needs a win Saturday to become bowl eligible.  This kinda has that feel that the Alabama vs. Auburn game had last year.  Alabama had the SEC title game looming, and Auburn needed a win to go bowling.  Alabama won that game 36-0.  I don't see a score like that in the future, but I do see a convincing Ohio State victory.  My initial thought was Buckeyes by about 13 - and Vegas put this one at a 12.5 point spread.  So its gonna be a tough one to pick.  On one hand, once the game is in hand the Buckeyes will probably put some starters on the bench.  But its not like they have a game to get ready for.  Its only November and the Rose Bowl isn't until New Years.  I don't pick this with a terrible amount of confidence, but I do see Ohio State with a close cover 24-10.

It might not be a week for nationally relevant games, but it is nearing the end of the season, and rivalries are THE BEST this time of year.  Anything can happen in a game like Ohio State/Michigan or Cal/Stanford.  Stay tuned, its gonna be a great weekend ahead.

Week 4 Picks of the Week

That time of the week again.  Lets take a look at my top five picks against the spread for Week 4:

Last Week:  2-3  Season 2-3

1.  Wake Forest @ Boston College (+2) 1:00 pm CDT espn360.com (online only)

Don't be scared of Boston College because of what happened last weekend against Clemson (25-7 loss).  Clemson is a good football team.  But this BC team is as well.  They just have to decide on a quarter back.  I like Justin Tuggle.  I know his stats haven't been great overall, but that is mostly because of the Clemson game.  take out Clemson, and he is 9-17 206 yards and most importantly, 3 TD and 0 int.  On the road at Clemson....4-20 23 yards 1 TD and 3 INT. But he is a 19 year old freshman in his first road start.  He will be back at home this weekend.  Coach Spaziani has said he might play another quarterback this weekend, but I don't think so.  I just hope this doesn't get under the young man's skin and he presses too much.  Close BC win at home 24-21.

2. Michigan State (+10) @ Wisconsin 11:00 am ESPN

I like the way MSU played against Notre Dame last weekend, and frankly think they should have won the game.  Had they not thrown the ball away at the end of regulation they would at least have likely taken it into overtime.  I like what I see in Kirk Cousins outside of that pass vs. Notre Dame (46-70 649 yards 5 TD 1 INT).  He is just a sophomore though.  And in the Big 10, it comes down to the running game.  Their two headed monster of Caulton Ray and Larry Caper have combined for 56 carries and 263 yards which isn't great, but should be enough to get it done with a good game from Cousins.  I like Wisconsin to the win the game at home, but ten points way too much.  17-13.

3.   Army (+10) @ Iowa State 6:00 pm College Sports Direct (online only)

This pick isn't so much about what I know about Army, but more what I know about Iowa State  Iowa State is terrible.  5-19 over the past two seasons.  They are 2-1 however this year (so i guess 7-20 now) but those wins are against North Dakota State and Kent State.  They cupboard is bare at Iowa State, and they aren't worthy of being 10 point favorites.  Army is also 2-1 on the season with wins over Eastern Michigan and Ball State.  A 35-19 loss to Duke, a team which lost to Richmond to start the season, is a little bit scary I will grant you, but I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that one.  Army has gone back to basics with the running game.  Four different backs have rushed for over 100 yards on the season and they have six touchdowns on the ground.  I like Army to pull the upset in this game 17-16.  If not, at least to stay within the 10 points.

4.  California (-6) @ Oregon 2:30 pm ABC

Oregon is beginning to recover from their open weekend loss to Boise State, especially with their 31-24 win over Utah, but they aren't there yet.  They have major questions in the passing game, and the running game is in the hands of a rookie who didn't figure to factor much into the offense at the start of the season.  They are not ready to beat a team like Cal.  Jahvid Best is the real deal at running back for Cal and he will have a BIG day against this Duck defense.  All QB Kevin Riley has to do is manage the game, and Cal should have this game over before the 4th quarter really starts.  Cal also NEEDS a statement style victory to really factor into the national picture.  USC is still the big team in the state no matter what the Golden Bears seem to do, so if they want to be talked about in the same context before their head to head matchup in two weeks, they need this to be a big win for a confidence builder.  Lets just hope they haven't been looking too far ahead and forgot about the Ducks though.  I don't think they do that.  I like Cal on the road with a 34-17 win.

5.  Washington (+7) @ Stanford 8:00 FCS Pacific.

So let me get this straight:  you beat USC, the BIG DOGS of the Pac-10 one week, and you come in 7 point UNDERDOGS to STANFORD the next!  Sorry, Homey Don't Play Dat.  Washington is going to avoid a major letdown loss and I think will crush Stanford.  Now I will say, QB Andrew Luck is the real deal.  Luck was an ESPN 150 recruit coming out of High School and played in the ESPN All-American game back in 2008.  And lets not forget about Toby Gerhart at running back.  Luck already has 639 pass yards, and Gerhart has 316 on the ground, but lets not kid ourselves, Stanford hasn't played anyone yet.  They did play on the road @ Wake Forest, but they lost the game.  Wins against Washington State and San Jose State don't prove anything yet.  I think Stanford is a good football team, but if Washington can beat USC (not to mention nearly beat LSU), they can certainly take care of Stanford.  We have to worry about the letdown after beating a big time opponent, but I don't see it.  Coach Sark will not allow for that.  Huskies 31, Cardinal 27.

Here they are.  I am most concerned with my pick of Army and least concerned with my pick of Cal.  I was more confident with my Washington pick until I dug a little deeper into Stanford and saw that they really have looked good on paper this year, but they will get it done.  So take the picks, give me yours, rip mine apart, I don't care.  Just let me know what you think.

Week 4 Games of the Week:

Week 3 is in the books, so now it's time for the Week 4 Games of the Week!

Last Week: 4-1:  Season Total 4-1


5.  Texas Tech @ #17 Houston 8:15 p.m CDT Espn2
If you are a fan of offense and not so much of defense, this game will be for you.  The scoreboard operator is likely to have a heart attack in this game.  Houston has had two weeks to prepare for this game after their stunning upset of then #5 Oklahoma State and is averaging 50 ppg.  QB Case Keenum has a 7-1 TD/INT ratio in just two games with 725 yards passing.  This is the toughest game left on the Houston schedule so if they can pull it out, a BCS bid is possible.  They still have Road games @ Mississippi State, Tulsa, and UCF along with Southern Miss and Memphis at home, but Texas Tech is by far the toughest contest remaining.  Speaking of Tech, they aren't doing too bad themselves on offense.  The Red Raiders are "only" averaging 39 ppg, but QB Taylor Potts has taken over the offense just fine.  Potts has 1,281 yards in three games carrying a 12-4 (3-1) TD/INT ratio.  And three of those four picks were in the first game which was his first career start.  In the Texas game, Potts looked great too.  Its at home for the Cougars and they have had two weeks to prepare---I give it to Houston 49-42.

4.  Iowa @ #5 Penn State 7:00 PM ABC
This game really should have been played last week were it seemed as though every game was a revenge game.  Iowa gave the Nittany Lions their only regular season loss with a last second field goal destroying their BCS Title chances But this game wasn't totally on my radar until it was announced that College Gameday would be attending the game in Happy Valley.  Penn State has look about as impressive as any top team.  But when you're best opponent is at toss-up between Akron and Syracuse, we don't know anything about you yet.  RB Evan Royster is playing well finally and QB Daryll Clark has looked very efficient with an 8-3 TD/INT ratio.  Iowa comes in 3-0 but hasn't looked very good doing it.  The Hawkeyes had to block the last second field goal of Northern Iowa on opening weekend not once but TWICE to preserve the victory.  They did destroy Iowa State on the road and had a quality victory vs. Arizona last weekend, but they just don't "feel" like a 3-0 team.  I think Penn State exacts revenge for last season and wins BIG over Iowa 35-6

3.  Arkansas @ #3 Alabama 2:30 CBS

The SEC schedule opens for Alabama this weekend with the Razorbacks coming into town.  Alabama looks unstoppable on offense this season with an efficient quarterback in Greg McElroy, and any of three running backs that could be considered a starter on most teams.  Mark Ingram leads the way with 297 yards over 3 games and a 6.8 YPC average, but Freshman Trent Richardson isn't far behind with 215 yards and is leading the team with a 7.4 YPC average.  Ingram actually leads the team in receptions with 10.  Sophomore Julio Jones should be ready to go against Arkansas giving McElroy the probably 3rd best receiver  (Dez Bryant, A.J. Green) in the NCAA back to throw to.  Jones hasn't gotten into the endzone since the Georgia game last season and will be hungry to get back there now.  Arkansas looked pretty great against Georgia last weekend though scoring 41 points on what is supposed to be a great defense.  QB Ryan Mallett, a Michigan transfer, is so far living up to his lofty projections coming out of High School with 717 yards in just two games with a 6-0 TD/INT ratio.  But he hasn't faced a defense as strong as Alabama's yet.  Senior RB Michael Smith hasn't shown much yet this year in limited attempts, but with Mallett at QB this is a pass first defense.  Alabama typically dominates that type of team, so I look for a 27-14 Alabama victory on Saturday.

2.  #6 California @ Oregon 2:30 ABC
This game looked a lot more appealing in the preseason when people actually thought Oregon was going to be a true contender.  But a miserable showing and LaGarrette Blount punch later, and Oregon is reeling a little bit.  RB LaMichael James is doing his best to fill in for the suspended Blount but he's just a freshman and it will take time.  Although he did have 152 yards against Utah last weekend.  QB Jeremiah Masoli hasn't looked good however so he either needs to improve dramatically or the running game really needs to be that dominant.  As for Cal, they have looked impressive.  The Maryland win may not be as impressive given that they have since lost to MTSU for the second straight year, but convincing wins over Eastern Washington and on the road @ Minnesota convince he that was more a product of how good Cal is, not how bad Maryland is.  QB Kevin Riley has this offense clicking with an efficient passing attack and a 5-0 TD/INT ratio.  But the Golden Bears really live and die by the play of Jahvid Best.  Best has played better than expected so far this year aleady collecting 412 yards and 8 touchdowns with an astonishing 7.8 YPC.  Best is no longer just a fringe Heisman candidate, he may be the leader early in the season.  The game is in Oregon, but that won't be enough for the Ducks to hold off the Golden Bears 35-17

1.  #9 Miami @ #11 Virginia Tech 2:30 ABC

The only game of the week feature two top 25 teams against each other has to be the game of the week.  Why College Gameday isn't there I'll probably never know --- they didn't respond to my tweet ----- but it is my pick for game of the week for sure.  The Hokies are just 2-1 on the season, but that loss was to a then #5, now #3 Alabama team.  It did take a last second touchdown to get past Nebraska however, so they could well be 1-2 on the season.  Maybe that's why Gameday isn't up in Blacksburg?  Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked great so far only achieving a 50% completion percentage once on the year (Marshall week 2) but he doesn't turn it over often with a 3-1 TD/INT ratio.  Ryan Williams does have back to back 100 yard games on the ground though.  Miami comes in looking as good as they have in years.  All the analysts said if the Hurricanes could come out of the start of the season with a 2-2 record it would be a victory for the program.  Well, they have guaranteed that already starting out 2-0.  Jacory Harris, one of the Miami Northwestern High School 8 from a couple years ago, has looked simply fantastic from the quarterback position hitting on 41-of-59 passes with a 5/2 TD/INT ratio Graig Cooper and Javarris James carry the load at running back.  The running back is a slight issue for the Canes because there is no true standout back there, but if Harris has progressed as much as he looked like he has it shouldn't matter.  If Miami can keep the Hokies from making a big play on special teams, they should win this game.  And I think they will do it in a slugfest 24-17.

That's it for the picks this week.  Check in tomorrow for my top five picks against the spread.

Week 3 Recap

Week 3 is in the books, and with it, some major shakeups at the top of the polls.  Here is a full top 10 rundown:

1.  Florida - W vs. Tennessee 23-13

Florida got the win which is good, but it wasn't very impressive.  Florida had multiple chances to blow the game away and they just didn't do it.  Florida looks very beatable, but still should be the number 1 team in the nation at this point.

2.  Texas - W vs. Texas Tech 34-24

The Horns got revenge for last season at least a little bit with this 34-24 victory.  Tech actually dominated in many statistical categories.  The glowing exception is on the ground (135- -6) but the Red Raiders did win the battle of total yards and doubled up the Horns through the air --- which isn't all that surprising.  Like the Gators, the Horns did not look as impressive as their ranking would indicate.  But its all about just getting those wins, especially in conference, and Texas never did trail in the game.  Solid #2 ranking, HOOK 'EM!

3.  USC - L vs. Washington 13-16

Wow.  Just wow.  We knew coming into this season that Washington was going to be a better team.  That's a given with Jake Locker coming back.  But being able to beat USC?!?!  Not a chance.  Washington did it was a patented formula however:  TURNOVERS.  USC led in total yards and out rushed the Huskies 250-56, but Locker gained 237 yards through the air and looked a proven leader under center.  I don't think Matt Barkley has ANYTHING to worry about in keeping his starting job.  Corp looked.....well pretty bad at best and horrible at worst.  The only thing the Trojans have in their favor is that they did lose early enough in the season that they can work their way back up into the national title picture IF they win out AND Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, AND both Florida and Alabama lose.  Even then, the SEC schools may have to lose twice to stay out of the game.

4.  Alabama W North Texas 53-7

Of all the top teams, BAMA looked the best.  Of course, the opponent was the worst as well.  I won't go into much detail here since my previous post is all about this game, but I just can't get over how well this offense looked in person.  At no point did I feel they could stop Alabama.  It really was a varsity vs. JV scrimmage out there.  The true test for Bama begins now though with the SEC portion of the schedule kicking in next week.


5.  Penn State W vs. Temple 31-6

I realize they haven't played anyone yet.  But, Penn State looks just as dangerous as they were last season and could find their way in the BCS title game if some things fall just right.  Evan Royster is starting to look the part of a leading running back and if he can keep that up, no one in the Big-10 will be able to stop Penn State this season. 


6.  Ole Miss W vs. Southeastern Louisiana 52-6

Well, OK, THIS team might have looked the best of any this weekend AND they played the truly weakest team as well  Even still, Ole Miss looks for real this year.  They had an early scare against Memphis but got the win and seem to be rolling towards the week 6 contest vs. Alabama in a game that may well go a long way in determining the SEC West champion.  Congrats to true freshman and Austin High School (in Decatur, AL) standout D.T. Shackelford for picking up two fumbles and scoring on a 58 yard INT for touchdown.  Ole Miss will be a tough out in the SEC this season.  Get a good look at this this Thursday night vs South Carolina.

7.  BYU L vs. Florida State L 28-54

Hard to say yet which is a bigger egg to lay:  USC or BYU, but there was no bigger thumping on the weekend than this game.  The Mormons never had the lead but did keep it close for a while but giving up ten points in the final 24 seconds of the first half really demoralized BYU and they just could not do anything in the second half.  Of course turning the ball over FIVE times doesn't do much to help either.  BYU's BCS busting hopes are likely done with this loss, but they can always take pride in thwarting the hopes of TCU later this year, and they can of course still win the conference title as well.  Lot to play for still at BYU, but a BCS berth is likely not among them.

8.  California W vs Minnesota 35-21

Cal is starting to hit their stride this year, and that's not good for the rest of the country.  Jahvid Best ran the ball 26 ties for 131 and FIVE touchdowns.  No longer just a fringe Heisman candidate, Best can lead this team to a Pac-10 title and maybe more if they can hold it together and get a win over USC later in the year.  USC still has more talent across the board, but now they have a lot less to play for.  All QB Kevin Riley has to do is NOT screw up and keep giving the ball to Best and this could be a great year.

9.  LSU W vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 31-3

Not too much to say here.  LSU did exactly what they were supposed to do in destroying Lafayette, but the stats don't really support that.  The Tigers gave up more than 100 yards on the ground but did only allow 163 through teh air.  They didn't pick up much more themselves though gaining only 330 total yards.  But the scoreboard shows a pretty dominant win, and that's all that really matters.  Does anyone else see a thee way tie scenario atop the SEC West a distinct possibility?  Let's hope their tiebreakers are better than those in the Big-12 if this happens.

10.  Boise State W vs. Fresno State 51-34

Already had a full post on this game so again, won't waste too much time here.  But Boise looks just fantastic and should make it to the BCS.  I may personally hate the Blue Ruggers, but they keep doing it year in and year out.  QB Kellen Moore just "looks" the part.  He is smart, has a great arm, and is just athletic enough to be dangerous.  I tell you what, with four weeks to prepare, I would NOT want to face Boise in a Bowl this season.  Lets hope they lay and egg somewhere this season.

Teams on the Move Up:

Miami, Auburn, Michigan, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida State, Cincinnati

Teams on the Move Down:

Georgia Tech, Utah, BYU, USC

Keep an eye out this week for my games of the week, picks of the week, Thursday Throwdown, and Friday Night Lights posts this week.  Could be a few surprise additions to the blog as well...keep reading.