Auburn Hate Week! Friday - GAME DAY Prediction

It's here!  The IRON BOWL is TODAY!

Before we get into the game, here is some pregame audio you need to listen to to get PUMPED for this game!  On paper, it might look like a blow out.  Not to mention if you just listen to talk radio or watch ESPN at all.  But lets take a look a little bit deeper.

The Offenses:

Statistically, both offenses have been very similar during the season, but Auburn's has been more potent:

Stat	Alabama	Ncaa Rank	Auburn	Ncaa Rank
Total Yards	418	30th	441.5	16th
Passing Yards	198	96th	234.7	54th
ushing Yards	225.6	10th	219.5	11th
Points Scored	32.2	24th	34	15th

Advantage:  Auburn

Auburn runs a spread offense led by Gus Malzahn, the former coach at Springdale High School in Arkansas, and at the University of Tulsa.  The jury is still out as to whether or not this offense will be more of a fad or a mainstay in college football.  Even with this spread style, Auburn loves to run the ball, but does throw it around some.  They still live on the ground though with Ben Tate and Ontario McCalebb.

Alabama runs a more traditional pro style offense, but there are a lot of Wildcat and Pistol formations thrown in.  Alabama's bread and butter is on the ground with two great backs in Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson.  Lets take a look at the running games of each school:

Player	Carries	Yards	Average	TD
Mark Ingram	205	1399	6.8	12
Trent Richardson	100	511	5.1	5
Ben Tate	225	1209	5.4	8
Onterio McCalebb	94	524	5.6	4

These two running games on paper are surprisingly similar.  Both have a more experienced lead back (Ingram, Tate) with a Freshman change of pace back getting a lot of fan attention (Richardson, McCalebb).  I give Alabama the advantage here, but it is closer than a lot of people think.  The possible X-Factor here is Kodi Burns.  Burns was thought to be the savior at quarterback, but that hasn't really panned out.  However, he has found a nice niche as a Wildcat style replacement quarterback gaining 154 yards with 4 touchdowns.  Although, much of that came early in the season.  Since then, Burns has moved over to receiver.

It is important to note on offense however, that even though Auburn dominates the statistical categories accross the board, in the team's six common opponents (MSU, UT, Arkansas, UK, LSU, and Ole Miss) Alabama out-gained Auburn against that same opponent three times.

Defense:

Up to now, this game looks like it might be pretty even.  But here is where Alabama will begin to separate itself:

Stat	Alabama	Ncaa Rank	Auburn	Ncaa Rank
Points Per Game	9.9	2nd	27	78th
Yards Per Game	225.2	1st	359.2	56th
Pass Yards Per Game	154.64	5th	189.45	28th
Rush Yards Per Game	70.54	2nd	169.72	88th

Advantage:  Alabama (Duh!)

Wow, those stats are even more amazing than I thought before I compiled them.  Alabama is in the top 5 in all major defensive statistical categories, and Auburn doesn't crack the top 25 in any of them.  Alabama is 10th in the nation in rushing, and Auburn is 88th at giving it up --- wow.  Alabama has not given up a 100 yard rusher in 33 games.  "The Law Firm" of Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis for Ole Miss in 2007 was the last back to accomplish the feat against Alabama.

Here is a look at the Alabama projected starting defense:

Player	Position	Height	Weight	Class
Lorenzo Washington	DE	6-5	290	SR
Brandon Deaderick	DE	6-4	287	SR
Terrance Cody	DT/NT	6-5	365	SR
Cory Reamer	LB	6-4	234	SR
Eryk Anders	LB	6-2	227	SR
Rolando McClain	LB	6-4	258	JR
Nico Johnson	LB	6-3	225	FR
Javier Arenas	CB	5-9	198	SR
Kareem Jackson	CB	5-11	192	JR
Mark Barron	S	6-2	215	SO
Justin Woodall	S	6-2	220	SR

Wow, that is a STOUT defense!  There is a reason this is one of the best units, probably the best unit, in the nation.  If Alabama can complete the undefeated season, this may go down as one of the best defenses in NCAA history.  But there are still three games to go before we can talk about anything like that.  Only one problem here:  LOOK AT ALL THE SENIORS on the list.  7 Seniors, and 2 Juniors that have the ability to leave early - if not both Jackson and McClain, at least McClain can leave early and will be a top 15 draft pick, possible top 5.  In that starting 11, I see at least 8 players that can make impacts on NFL rosters soon.  Really, I don't see anyone that couldn't, but there probably isn't a starting 11 anywhere that had EVERYONE play in the NFL, not even those great USC teams in the 2000's. But that isn't a problem for the rest of this season, that is only a problem for next year.  At this point though, Alabama doesn't really need to "rebuild" after a good season, they simply just "reload". 

Special Teams:

So special teams may not be worth any fancy table like the other stats, but it is still worth noting.  Leigh Tiffin leads Alabama in scoring (and is now the school's all-time leader in points as well) with 109 going 25-28 on field goal attempts on the season.  He has not missed since he missed 2 kicks vs. South Carolina 5 games ago.  And while on special teams, we have to talk about Javier Arenas.  He holds the SEC record for most kick return touchdowns, and is only 100 yards away from becoming the SEC all time kick return yardage leader.  For Auburn Wes Byrum is perfect on extra points on the season and only has one field goal miss.  Byrum has been statistically great his whole career, while Tiffin has been often criticized until this season.  On kick returns - I have no idea who Auburn uses, and I really don't care - he won't be better than Arenas.

Advantage:  Alabama

Prediction:
Classic SEC slug-fest on the ground all afternoon.  The Alabama defense vs. the Auburn offense will be the match-up to watch, and if you MUST turn away from the TV, do it during the Alabama offense vs. Auburn defense portion of the game.  According to Vegas, Alabama is a 10 or 10.5 point favorite.  According to bodog, that line started out with Alabama a 12.5 point favorite, and it has gone DOWN since.  Last week on Gametime, I predicted a three touchdown advantage for Alabama - or at least 17 points.  This number looks to be a sucker bet to me.  I know, I know, "It's a rivalry game, you never know."  "It's on the road, and Auburn always plays well at home."  "A win here makes Auburn's season, they can play loose and takes more risks."  "Those Auburn kids are out to PROVE they deserved Alabama scholarship offers."  "Our defense has caught some bad breaks, we are better than we have looked."  "Don't forget about the SI cover Jinx!  "Remember 20 years ago when Bama was #2 and lost on the Plains?"  I've heard it all, I just don't buy any of it.

Auburn may well take an early lead in this game, that would not surprise me.  It will be one of the best offenses Alabama has faced all season.  But it will not last.  I like Alabama to take control of the game early on the strength of Mark Ingram's legs and never look back.  Ingram will be good for 130 and 2 touchdowns.  McElroy will hit the 200 yard mark with one touchdown, and Tiffin will hit 2-3 field goals.  I think Auburn gets an early 3-0 lead and scores a late touchdown to bring the game closer than it needs to be, but in the end Alabama will be way too strong for the Tigers this afternoon.

Alabama will roll on to Atlanta undefeated for a Clash of the Titans 8 days from now!

Alabama 27 Auburn 10.