Conference Title Game Predictions

The last week of the regular season is all about conference championship games.  For the major conferences, we have three that play real Division vs. Division title games.  But this year, of the three remaining major conferences, two of them play de-facto Championship games this weekend as well.  Will look at those here as well.  Here is some analysis and predictions in the order of how much I care about the games:

1.  MAC:  Central Michigan vs. Ohio Friday December 4th Detroit, MI @ Ford Field 7:00 PM CST ESPN2

Central Michigan (10-2) is led by senior quarterback Dan LeFevour.  LeFevour is a four year starter with some fantastic career numbers.  The "Poor Man's Tim Tebow" as he is called has almost 2800 yards with 25 touchdown passes.  On  the ground, he has 650 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Ohio (9-3) have been one of the surprise teams of the season.  The Bobcats are led by coach Frank Solich - former Nebraska player and coach.  To be honest, I don't know much of anything about either of these teams.  But I will go with the senior leader at quarterback and pick the Chippewas (-10.5) 37-24

2.  Conference USA:  #21 Houston vs. East Carolina Saturday December 5th 11:00 A.M.

East Carolina (8-4) have just one conference loss this season - to bowl eligible SMU.  All other three losses have been to major conference opponents.  Senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney is having a descent season with almost 2500 yards and 13 touchdown passes.  However, Pinkney has thrown 10 picks as well.

Houston (10-2) has had quite the season.  Highlighted by a week 2 win over then #5 Oklahoma State.  For many thought that this Houston Cougar team would be this year's BCS buster until a surprising loss to UTEP ended hopes of that.  The Cougars lost agian to UCF later in the season but are coming in red hot after a wins of 55-14 over Memphis and 73-14 over Rice to end the season.  Junior quarterback Case Keenum is having a great season with nearly 5,000 pass yards and 38 touchdown passes.  Keenum is thought to be a darkhorse heisman contender and had the team been undefeated would at least be getting an invite to New York for the presentation.  I see Houston (-1) running away with this game 45-17.

3.  Pac-10:  #16 Oregon State @ #7 Oregon Thursday December 3rd 8:00 PM ESPN

And as usual the Pac-10 Champion is USC...........wait.  That's right, for the first time since 2001, the Pac-10 will not be won by USC.  And while there is no official Pac-10 title game, this year's Civil War game will decide the conference championship.  Oregon has not played in the Rose Bowl since the 1994 season, and Oregon State since the 1964 season.  Oregon State (8-3) might be the quietest team this season.  Nationally, we haven't heard much from the Beavers since they beat USC on a Thursday night last season.  The Beavs are led by the Rodgers brothers:  Jacquizz and James.  Jacquizz leads the team in rushing, and James leads in receiving.  Ironically, James is 2nd in rushing, and Jacquizz is 2nd in receiving.  The Quizz has over 1300 yards on the ground with 19 touchdowns and would be the conference's best running back were it not for Stanford's Toby Gerhart.

Oregon (9-2) has been quite the up and down team all season.  Oregon opened the season on the road at Boise State, and we all should remember how that turned out:

But after that game, Oregon ripped off 7 straight wins including a 47-20 domination of USC.  But a loss to Stanford pretty much knocked Oregon out of the national title picture and outside the national spotlight.  With the loss of LaGarrette Blount to suspension, the Oregon running game was thought to be in the tank, but the emergence of LaMichael James (1300 yards 11 TD) and that of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (1800 pass yards 14 TDs and 619 rush yards 12 TDs) has brought Oregon back to the top of the Pac-10.  This game is one of those Thursday night ESPN games that produces a lot of upsets with teams coming off of short weeks and such, but Oregon (-9.5) should be good enough to overcome that.  I see the Duck taking this game 31-20.

4.  Big East:  #5 Cincinnati @ #15 Pittsburgh Saturday December 5th 11:00 AM ABC

This game has lost of a little bit of his luster given Pitt's loss in the Backyard Brawl to West Virginia, but the stakes are still the same.  The winner still wins the Big East and gets the automatic berth in the BCS.  Pitt (9-2) is led by their freshman sensation running back Dion Lewis.  Lewis has nearly 1500 yards on the ground with 13 touchdowns.  Quarterback Bill Stull pretty much just has to not screw up with Lewis in the backfield.  Stull has thrown for 2300 yards and 19 touchdowns

Cincinnati (12-0) still has an outside shot at getting into the national title game with a win.  It would take a Texas loss and some major changes in voting between TCU and Cinci, but it is still possible.  But the only way voters would be willing to consider would be if Cinci can dominate Pitt.  They do have one of the best receivers in the nation in Marty Gilyard who has 75 catches for 1032 yard and 10 touchdowns.  Tony Pike at quarterback was a heisman candidate until he got injured early in the season, but  Zach Collaros held down the fort just fine in his absence.  Near as I can tell online, this game doesn't have a line right now.  I would have thought Cinci would be opening as at least 4 point favorites, but even still, I like Pitt to throw the upset in this one in a very close game 24-23.

5.  ACC Championship Game:  #10 Georgia Tech vs. Clemson Saturday December 5th Jacksonville, FL 7:00 PM ESPN

Wow, what a bad weekend for both of these teams.  Perhaps both were looking ahead a little early towards the title game?  The cream of the ACC crop each lose to a middle of the pack to bottom 1/3 SEC team over the weekend in each team's major in state rivalry game.  Neither team was really affected by the loss however as both had already clinched their berth in this game, and neither had a chance for a national title.  Georgia Tech had an extreme outside shot at it, but it wasn't very likely anyways.  Georgia Tech (10-2) comes in with one of the more interesting offenses in college football.  Many people said that Paul Johnson's flexbone offense wouldn't work in a major conference, and clearly they have been wrong.  Josh Nesbitt is a threat to throw out of the bone, and thus it works very very well.  Johnathan Dwyer and Armando Allen provide the rest of the ground attack going along with Nesbitt.  Clearly, Tech will be looking for revenge.

Clemson (8-4) has had a mostly disappointing season to this point.  After losing 3 of their first 5 games, the Tigers rolled off 6 straight wins before the South Carolina game last weekend including a 40-37 overtime thriller against Miami.  C.J. Spiller is the unquestioned leader for Clemson.  Last weekend Spiller set the NCAA record with 7 career kick return touchdowns.  Spiller has just 900 yards rushing on the season, but he is a threat wherever he is on the field.  Jacoby Ford leads the team in receiving and has legit 4.3, possibly even 4.2 speed at his best.  These teams did play early in the season at Georgia Tech on a Thursday night with Tech taking that game 30-27.  Tech jumped out to an early dominating lead and nearly gave it up late.  I see this game coming down to the wire with Clemson (+1) scoring a late touchdown to win the game 30-27.

6.  Big 12 Championship Game:  #3 Texas vs. Nebraska Saturday December 5th St. Louis, MO 7:00 ABC

On paper, this game should be an easy selection.  One team is highly ranked on rout to a possible National Championship game berth.  The other, is, well, not.  But where have we seen this before.....

Nebraska (9-3) comes in with a mediocre offense but with the stellar defense.  Are the Blackshirts Back?  Well, no, not quite, but they are getting there.   DT Ndamukong Suh is even considered to be a very very darkhorse Heisman candidate - and that says something.  No true defender has ever won the award (Charles Woodson in 1997 got his stats by punt and kick returns mostly) and to have a defensive tackle on the list is amazing.  He won't win it and won't even get an invite to New York, but he will make some ballots.  On offense, the Cornhuskers are led by junior Zac Lee.  This is Lee's first season as the starter, and he has done quite well with almost 2000 yards and 14 touchdowns.

The Longhorns are led of course by Colt McCoy.  McCoy is probably the Heisman leader at this point.  Although it is probably more of a career achievement and not so much a season award as McCoy has just over 3300 yards with 27 touchdowns which are great numbers, but not the best in the nation.  Tre Newton leads the team on the ground, but McCoy is still a threat to run with over 100 carries on the season.  I see Texas (-14) should be able to cover this spread, but I'm not amazingly confident in my pick.  Texas does not play good defense, but luckily for them, Nebraska's offense isn't very good.  I like Texas 37-14.

7.  SEC Championship Game:  #1 Florida vs. #2 Alabama Saturday December 5th Atlanta, GA 3:00 CBS


Do you really think I am going to spoil my end of the week prediction post here?  Forget about it!  You'll have to come back.


Here is my prediction:  It is going to be a good game with the winner playing for the National Title and the loser playing in the Sugar Bowl.