LSU Week: Saban Bowl 3

For all intents and purposes, Week 9 of the the season is in the books.  There is a Sunday night game, but it is meaningless as far as the polls are concerned.  Florida and Texas solidified their claims for the top two spots in the polls, while Alabama should still be sitting at number 3.  Iowa should stay at number four by SOMEHOW winning and covering the spread against Indiana even though Indiana controlled most of the game.  Oregon's dismantling of USC legitimize the Ducks as a national title contender, but also Boise State as well.

But none of that matters, its LSU WEEK!  And we are ready for Saban Bowl #3


This rivalry used to be like the rivalry the hammer has with the nail.  They hate each other, but one side is going to win almost every time.  Every once in a while the hammer misses the nail and hits the wall, but not usually.

Alabama = the hammer
LSU = the nail

From 1902 until 1999, Alabama held a 41-15-5 record.  Since 2000, LSU leads the series 7-2 with the notable exceptions being 2002 (31-0 in Baton Rouge) and 2008 (27-21 in overtime).

Alabama fans never really put much thought into the LSU game.  LSU was a perennial lower to mid-tier SEC team, and Bama was on top.  But the rivalry has caught steam since the turn of the century, and especially since Saban was hired by Alabama in January 2007.  No it is hatred, at least coming from the LSU side.  Alabama already has its two hated rivals, LSU will have to be content fighting with Florida for 3rd place.

I have one true experience with LSU fans, and that was in Baton Rouge in 2002.  Still a naive college football fan at the time, I really did not know what to expect.  I had heard about LSU fans being crazy, but hadn't really seen it.  Driving into that town, I cannot tell you how many #14's I saw (14 being of the number of Alabama quarterback Tyler Watts) hanging in effigy from the trees.  Everywhere we turned we heard TIGER BAIT, TIGER BAIT!!!!! Alochol + Cajuns + Night Game = Crazy People.

Pregame will always be remembered for the Jumbotron however.  You see, the weekend before, was the "Bluegrass Miracle."   What better way to entertain your student section which arrived three hours before kickoff than to play that play over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over again!!!!  Oh, and then play it again!

All of this was fun.  Its college football!  So after the 31-0 throttling, you would think they would quiet down.  NOPE.  Leaving the stadium to a chorus of TIGER BAIT TIGER BAIT! were the Alabama faithful.  This was AFTER they had their jockstraps ripped off and handed to the on the field all night!

I've been to several other LSU games in Tuscaloosa, but most of those were uneventful from the fan perspective.

The stakes couldn't be higher in this years contest.  Both teams will come in with top ten rankings with the winner in control of the SEC West, and the loser likely out.  An Alabama win secures a trip to Atlanta in December, while an LSU win gives the Tigers control of their own destiny.  And with just one loss on the season, LSU would still be in major contention for a national championship if they can win out and defeat Florida in the SEC title game.

Lets take a look at this year's match up on paper:

The quarterbacks:

Alabama - Greg McElroy 121/202 1445 yards 9 TD 3 Int 131.7 Rating
LSU - Jordan Jefferson    123/192 1491 yards11 TD 4 Int 137.1 Rating

Edge:  Push

Both teams have average starting quarterbacks looking for big games.  Neither are likely to find them against the type of defenses in this contest.  The wild card will the be the Wildcat.  LSU's Russell Shepard is a threat to throw out of the formation even though he has yet to do it, while Alabama's Mark Ingram is not.  Shepard is more about getting to the edge and using pure speed, while Ingram is more about busting you in the mouth and running you over.  If Alabama can play contain against Shepard, this will be a non issue.  But Alabama has some of its biggest issues against the running quarterback.  This could be the games X-Factor.

Runningbacks:

Alabama:  Mark Ingram   153 carries 1004 yards 8 TD
                Trent Richardson 74 carries 377 yards 4 TD
LSU:        Charles Scott      103 carries 459 yards 4 TD
                Keiland Williams  44 carries 212 yards 2 TD

Edge:  Alabama

Mark Ingram is the man.  Period.  End of story.  There isn't a defense in this nation that can stop him, they can only hope to contain him.  Tennessee did a good job of containing him, but Ingram still had 99 yards on the ground.  Scott and Williams should be having better seasons, but thus far have not broken out.  Alabama has not allowed a 100 yard rusher all season, and I don't see this being the game where that changes.

Receivers

Alabama:  Alabama fires the ball to a host of receivers and backs.  Only Julio Jones has 20 catches on the year, but Ingram and Colin Peek are both sitting at 19.  Marquis Maze locks down the 2nd receiver spot, while Darius Hanks, and Mike McCoy are fighting it out for the 3rd spot.

LSU:  LSU primarily relies on their two wideouts Terrance Tolliver and Brandon LaFell.  LaFell is a touchdown machine with 8 already on the year, and is considered either the top or the 2nd best receiver available in next year's NFL draft (the other being Dez Bryant) but that is only because both Jones and Georgia's A.J. Green are still sophomores and ineligible for the draft.  Only Richard Dixon has double digit catches aside from Tolliver and LaFell.  Freshman Rueben Randle could be a factor because of his recruiting ties to Alabama, but to this point he only has 6 grabs on the year.

Edge:  Push.  LSU has the more productive receivers, but Alabama has more balance.  And with a healthy Colin Peek, McElroy will have one of his favorite targets back in the lineup. 

Defense:  Both of these defenses are stout.  Saban is a defensive genius, and any great defender will want to play for him.  This works both ways though.  Even though his players are gone from LSU, talent breeds talent and the players Miles is getting now can be at least indirectly linked to the work Saban did while there.  But he doesn't have any direct contact with them, but he does with the Alabama defense.  Every member of the Alabama defense could end up in the NFL including three potential 1st round picks in next years draft (Rolando McClain, Terrance Cody, Javier Arenas).  Both teams rank in the top 1/3 in the SEC in almost every defensive category.

Edge:  very slightly Alabama.  Alabama's strength is on the defensive side of the ball for sure.  So is LSUs.  But this Alabama defense is epic level great, LSU is just regular geat.


Coaching:

Not even worth mentioning, ALABAMA!!!!!!!!  Saban is awesome, and Miles is, well, just insane.

Prediction:  A classic SEC style slug fest awaits fans in Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday afternoon.  Neither team has a great offense, both teams have stout defenses.  Alabama is coming off of a bye week, and LSU might as well be coming off of one given Tulane's performance last night.  I like Alabama to win the very close low scoring defensive struggle 23-13.