Spring Practice

Well here we are in March again, and its time for spring football across the country.  It seems like just the other day I was driving out to California to see Alabama win the National Championship!  Yet here we are in the middle of March with spring practice going on at every NCAA Football college in the country.  Let's take a look at the top three storylines this year's spring:

3.  Can USC find its way back to the top?

2009 wasn't the best year for USC football to say the least.  An 8-4 record was the worst regular season in recent memory for the Trojans.  But a bowl win over Boston College began to right the ship heading into 2010.  The season was also marred by a near tragedy when Stafon Johnson nearly lost his life in a weightlifting accident.  His nearly full recovery is nothing short of miraculous. 

Key Losses:
Taylor Mays
Stafon Johnson
Allen Bradford
Shareece Wright

Key Additions:
Kyle Prater - 5* Receiver
Any number of the 4 five stars and numerous 4* players that USC brings in every season could turn out to be major impact freshmen.  But Prater will likely be called upon early and often.  Look for some new faces in the secondary as well

This spring is where USC will find out what it made of.  No one on this team has had to come off of adversity the season before.  With major losses in the backfield and secondary, this spring may be key for USC.  Can Joe McKnight be an every down back?  Or is he too much like Reggie Bush:  electric but not a true running back?  Can Matt Barkely live up to the hype?  We will see.

A 2010 schedule with no world beaters on it sets up well for USC this year.  Figure them back into the National Title picture at year's end.

2.  How will Alabama handle success?

Selfishly I wanted to put this as the top storyline going in, but nationally it really isn't the most important off season topic.  But for Alabama fans, this is the big one.  Several great seasons followed Alabama's last national championship, what will happen after this one?  Alabama returns the majority of their offensive skill position players with stars at all levels.  The offensive line will again be a question mark with anchor Mike Johnson gone, but the Alabama offense will be largely back from last year.  The true question becomes defense.  Alabama loses key players on all levels of the defense.  Marcel Dareus will be back on the defensive line, however he wasn't technically even the starter.  The Crimson Tide lose nearly all starting linebackers; the most important of which being Rolando McClain.  Some young guys stepped in when needed last year, and superstar in the making Donta Hightower should be back healthy and as good as ever.
The secondary will be the real question mark however.  8 of the top 10 in playing time have either graduated or gone onto the NFL early.  Starting Safety Mark Barron and nickel back Robby Green are all that return from one of the top secondaries in the nation last season.  Can B.J. Scott finally live up to the hype of being a 5 star in high school?  Will Dre Kirkpatrick become the lockdown corner he was touted to be out of high school?  DeMarcus Millner is another big name player, will he see major action as a true freshman?

But Coach Saban is the defensive backs coach, so that will help.

Combine all of this with the fact that with this season being the crazy road season with games @Tennessee, @ LSU, @Arkansas.  Add in home games against Penn State, Florida, and Auburn, and its tough to see Alabama going through that gauntlet undefeated.  But if they do, and if Florida makes it to the title game again...maybe Alabama can get past the Gators because of storyline number 1:

1.  How do the top teams replace their star quarterbacks (Oklahoma, Texas, Florida)?

Going into last season all the talk was the Heisman trophy and which of the big three senior quarterbacks would win it.  Then it was a relatively unknown running back out of Alabama capturing the first ever Heisman for the school.  So how will OU, UT, and UF replace their leaders?

Well OU pretty much already had to when Bradford went own to injury at the start of the season.  The answer was Landry Jones, and the results were mixed.  Jones passed for over 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns, but also lost some of the biggest games of the year to Miami, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma.  With basically a full year under his belt that Jones was not ready for given the circustances, he will be in a much better position this time around.

Texas also got an early glimpse at their next gunslinger in Garrett Gilbert.  It came at the worst possible time with McCoy going down early in the national title game, but Gilbert preformed remarkably well given the situation.  A couple of touchdown passes to Jordan Shipley later, and Gilbert looks ready at Texas.  His stats in the game were unimpressive overall : 15/40 186 yards 2 TD 4INT but he improved as the game went on and began to develop confidence against the top defense in the nation.  Texas could easily find itself back in the national title picture again this season.

Florida is probably the biggest question mark of the group.  Replacing Jesus Ch........i mean Tim Tebow.....at quarterback will be tough.  Love him or hate him; sick of him or not, Tebow meant alot to that Florida team on the field and off the field.  He was the heart of that team.  The offense was built around him.  I'm as sick of him as anyone else and believe me, I laughed when I saw him crying at the end of the Alabama game, but that guy gave everything he had to the game of college football and even if he is a failure at quarterback at the next level, which I predict he will be, you can't take away what he did at Florida.  His replacement is likely John Brantley.  Brantley played very well in the little bit he played over Tebow last season.  Playing in mostly mop up duty in big wins, Brantley was 36 of 48 for 410 yards with 7 TDs and 0 INTs.  He just doesn't have the same skill set running the ball Tebow did.  His threat to run the ball outside or run it inside made that offense as tough to gameplan for as any in college football.

Can the Gators get back to the top without Tebow?  If they do they will have to probably beat Alabama or LSU twice this season since they play both in the regular season and its likely one of those two will make it to Atlanta for the title game again.

Its going to be a great season.  But before we start thinking about it too much, lets get through the spring games first....

Wow, it has been a while....

Just wanted to let all of you know that THE GURU has not gone away.  Lots of stuff has been going on these last couple of months and I haven't been able to keep up with the blog too much.  But all that will change very soon.  We are gonna have some posts on the NFL draft, spring football, and a look back on some previous signing classes all before the start of fall practice in August.

So keep reading everyone.  I will be back soon....

Heisman Handicapping

Yesterday, ESPN announced the five college football players who would be making the trip to New York for the Heisman trophy presentation:

1.  Toby Gerhart, RB Stanford
2.  Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
3.  Colt McCoy, QB Texas
4.  Ndomukong Suh, DT Nebraska
5.  Tim Tebow, QB Florida

Here is a little rundown on each player and why he should win the award

1.  Toby Gerhart:

311 Carries
1,736 Yards
26 Touchdown

Why He Should Win:

Gerhart has been the most consistent running back this season in all of NCAA Division 1A football.  He leads the league in both yards and touchdowns.  He had at least 100 yards in all but 2 games this season and those games were of 82 and 96 yards respectively.  Stanford has come back to national recognition this season, and Gerhart is the primary reason for this.  He is a powerful runner who looks to be a great pro prospect as well as a fantastic college back.

Why He Should Not Win:

Gerhart's team is 8-4 on the season and did not win its conference.  The Pac-10 does not have divisions, but even if they did Stanford's 4th place finish would not have gotten them into the game.  He is the only player among the top 5 that did not play for a conference title, and really in the top 8 if you consider Kellen Moore (Boise), Dion Lewis (Pitt) and C.J. Spiller (Clemson) in the mix.  No player has won the Heisman on a team with at least 4 losses since 1987 (Tim Brown, Notre Dame).  Gerhart also led the nation in carries, so his yards and touchdown numbers are skewed because of that .  His yard per carry average of 5.6 that ranks just 50th in the NCAA.  In both games Gerhart rushed for under 100 yards, his team lost.  So yes that shows that he is critical to his team's success, but it also shows that when his team needs him the most, he doesn't show up.

2.  Mark Ingram

249 Attempts
1,542 Yards
15 Touchdowns

Why He Should Win:

Mark Ingram has been the leader for the nations number one team, and that should count for something.  Ingram's yards rank him 5th in the NCAA, and his 15 touchdowns put him 14th, and his yards per attempt put him 26th nationally.  For a stretch in the middle of the season, Ingram led Alabama by himself to some hard fought victories against SEC competition while QB Greg McElroy was going through a midseason slump.  Ingram is the best player on the best team in the nation.

Why He Should Not Win:

Ingram has not been very consistent this season at all.  He has 8 games with at least 100 yards rushing, but 5 games under 100 (Tennessee was close with 99 yards).  The most notable bad game was Auburn.  Ingram had just 30 yards rushing on 16 carries and was noticeably absent from the field late in the game.  True, he did get hurt, but that happened very late and was not related to his injury.  Other than Auburn however, each games Ingram was under 99 yards were all in blowouts where he was pulled late to give more carries to Trent Richardson.  But speaking of Richardson, he is probably a better back than Ingram is.  Can you really give the Heisman to the 2nd best back on a team?  Sure his numbers are better, but watching Richardson run is like watching magic on the football field.  Ingram is more just pound it up the middle and run you over.  It should also be noted that no Alabama player has ever won the Heisman trophy.

3.  Colt McCoy

3,512 Yards
27 Touchdowns
147.46 rating

Why He Should Win:

Colt McCoy has had the most consistent career among any of the finalists.  Texas has been a national power in each of McCoy's four seasons at starter and that is primarily thanks to him.  For the last couple of seasons, McCoy has had no running game to speak of and yet, have only lost one game - which was a one point road loss to Texas Tech last season.  For two seasons in a row, McCoy has led the Longhorns in rushing attempts, and last season also led them in yards.  This year, McCoy is 3rd nationally in completion percentage, 6th in yards, 8th in touchdowns, and 18th in passing efficiency.  Combined with his rushing stats, and McCoy can't mean more to his team than any other player.

Why He Should Not Win:

Colt McCoy hasn't really don't anything this season to win him the award.  His "Heisman Moment" was a great offensive performance against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving.  But should a great win over a 6-6 team really be your "moment?"  I don't think so.  Combine that with McCoy's pitiful performance in the Big 12 title game, and there really is no reason in the 2009 season to give Colt this award.  However, McCoy was considered one of the "Big 3" coming into the season along with Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford.  Tebow and Bradford each won their trophies, so now it is McCoy's turn as long as he didn't mess up.  And he did not mess it up.  However, the Heisman is not supposed to be a career achievement award, it is a season award.  And McCoy's season really doesn't even make him a top five worthy candidate.


4.  Ndamukong Suh

82 Tackles
12 Sacks
1 Int

Why He Should Win:

Simply, Suh is probably the most dominant performer in all of NCAA football this season.  Suh is 3rd in the nation in sacks with 12 and a total of 82 tackles.  That may not be alot of tackles, but his job is gap control on running plays taking on the double team.  That frees up your linebackers to make the tackles.  Suh simply cannot be blocked by just one player and teams are forced to gameplan around him.  If the award is truly for the most outstanding player in the game, Suh fits that to a T.

Why He Should Not Win:

Suh is a defensive player.  No true defender has ever won the award in modern football.  Charles Woodson of Michigan in 1997 was primarily a defensive player, but he got a lot of his numbers on punt return yardage which really helped him win the award.  Suh does not have a lot of tackles, but again, he is not supposed to in that defensive scheme.  If Nebraska had beaten Texas in the Big 12 title game, I would say Suh had a legit shot.  However, since they did not, I don 't see a lot of first place votes going to Suh.  He just doesn't have the numbers a Heisman winner needs to have.

Tim Tebow

2,413 Yards
18 Touchdowns
155.59 Rating

Why He Should Win:

Tim Tebow has been the most outstanding player in college football over the past three seasons hands down.  He has lost just twice in the past two seasons and is the unquestioned leader of the Florida Gators.  Tebow's passing numbers do not totally do him justice since we all know it is his legs that make him the player he is.  Tebow's 203 carries are more than double that of the next highest Gator (Jeffery Demps 96) and he leads the team in yards as well.  His 13 touchdowns on the ground also lead the team.  Tebow is the SEC record holder for rushing touchdowns, a record to obtained this season against Georgia.  Tim Tebow is what is right about college football.  We can hate him if we want to, but he is a great role model, he is a great person, and he will be a success in life after his days at Florida are over.

Why He Should Not Win:

Because this season, Tebow was not Tebow for much of the season.  After his concussion vs. Kentucky, he just wasn't the same for several weeks.  Maybe that isn't totally fair, but it has to be considered.  The "Mighty Gators" nearly lost to SEC West bottom feeder Mississippi State and perpetual "also-ran" Arkansas and really needed some Zebra help to beat Arkansas late.  Tebow's SEC title performance was horrible as Alabama simply controlled that game and Tebow.  The Alabama defense is JUST THAT GOOD though, but a Heisman winner should be able to overcome it.  Tebow's celebrated career should not end with the fairy tale Heisman trophy, and WILL not end with a national championship.

The GURU's prediction:

This should be the tightest race in Heisman history.  There was really no "Heisman Moment" for any player this season and no one really separated himself from the field.  Gerhart is the most dominant on offense, but his team wasn't nearly as good as the rest.  Ingram and McCoy's teams are undefeated and playing for the title and they are the unquestioned leaders, however their numbers are good not great by Heisman standards.  Suh is the most dominant but plays an unflashy defensive postion, and Tebow just didn't show up this season, but is the most celebrated player in college football history.  If I had a ballot, here is what it would look like:

1.  Mark Ingram
2.  Toby Gerhart
3.  Colt McCoy
4.  Ndamukong Suh
5.  C.J. Spiller
6.  Tim Tebow
7.  Kellen Moore
8.  Dion Lewis
9.  Andy Dalton

I have been going back and forth for days of this, but this is how I think it will shake out:

1.  Toby Gerhart
2.  Mark Ingram
3.  Colt McCoy
4.  Ndamukong Suh
5.  Tim Tebow

All I really know, Tebow should be 5th place.  But you can make a case for any of the other top four in any order, and I could not totally disagree with you.

Make sure to watch the ceremony on Saturday night and find out for yourself!

SEC Title Hangover! ROLL TIDE

Hey guys.  Sorry for the lack of posts this week. Cross Country drive + lack of internet access = no posts from the GURU.  But I'm back now!

I had the chance to be in Atlanta this past weekend, and WOW what a game!  Alabama was just dominant from start to finish and it is going to be a BCS Championship game for the Ages next month!

Oh yea, and Tebow....CRIED on National Television!  I LOVE IT!!!



I hear some people saying that "Don't make fun of him, he's just an emotional guy!"  You know what, I don't care about that.  Yea, it is great that he is an emotional guy and all.  It is what drives him to be as great as he is.  He wears his heart on his sleeve and all of that.  But c'mon, if you are THAT good, if you are the second coming, if you are Jesus himself, if you are the illegitimate son of Chuck Norris, if Superman wears YOUR pajamas, you need to SUCK IT UP AND ACT LIKE A MAN OUT THERE!!!!!!

I don't blame Tebow for all of this hype.  In a lot of ways the media built him up to something he cannot live up to, and that is not his fault. 

But I LOVED seeing those tears.  I cheered.  I yelled and screamed when I saw those tears on the TV, and apparently they made it onto the jumbotron in the stadium as well!  I loved it.  And I loved that it was ALABAMA that did it to him! 

Tim Tebow:  ultimate SHAD FACE!!!!!

Now, back to the game.

Straight up domination on the part of Alabama.  I never made an official blog prediction on the game, but It would have been Alabama 19-16.  There was no chance, NO CHANCE that Alabama would be able to control the ball on offense against the nation's top defense not wearing Crimson, and no way they could control that offense.  I knew they could contain it, but they completely stopped it!  They took away the big play, they got the key turnovers, and on offense, they just controlled the ball.  They lined up and said "ok we are running right at you, and now you stop it!"  They did not stop it.

I couldn't be happier

Oh, and Mark Ingram is squaely back in the Heisman discussions this week.  As well he should be.  Heisman's are season awards.  You shouldn't be able to lose it with one game (Auburn) but you also shouldn't win it based on one game.  He has a fantastic game against Florida, but that shouldn't win it.  What should win it is a season of dominance capped off by a final game of dominance. 

Same goes for McCoy.  Everyone wanted to give him the trophy after the Texas A&M game.  Now, no one wants to give it to him after the Nebraska game.  Look at his WHOLE SEASON!  Is it a worthy season?  Absolutely.  And anyone that votes for him will be well within their rights to do so.  I think Ingram is better and more important to his team that McCoy is to Texas, but I couldn't disagree with a McCoy selection.

Lots of little notes thrown into this post, sorry for that.  Hopefully later this week I can have some better posts for you all!

The GURU Live on the Radio - Week 4

Back for a third week, the guys at Boston Game Time had the GURU on the air Friday night to discuss the upcoming action in college football.  This week, we talked about:

Iron Bowl Recap
Ingram's FAIL and the INGY Song
Heisman Balloting
Texas vs. Texas A&M
The GURUs failed prognostications
Nebraska's chances at beating Texas
Who wins:  Texas or whichever SEC team faces them
What if Texas loses:  Do they still play in the title game?
Boise State vs. Nevada on the Blue Rug
BCS vs. Playoff Debate is SET for Two Weeks from now!

Check out the GURU'S segment here


Listen to the whole show here - Or you can just click the link of the side of the page!


Check out all of the Game Time podcasts here

And don't forget to listen live every week, Friday Night at www.wmfo.org LIVE Midnight - 2AM Eastern (11pm-1am Central)

It looks like The GURU will be a weekly segment at least for the rest of the college football season.  Check it out every week.

 

Conference Title Game Predictions

The last week of the regular season is all about conference championship games.  For the major conferences, we have three that play real Division vs. Division title games.  But this year, of the three remaining major conferences, two of them play de-facto Championship games this weekend as well.  Will look at those here as well.  Here is some analysis and predictions in the order of how much I care about the games:

1.  MAC:  Central Michigan vs. Ohio Friday December 4th Detroit, MI @ Ford Field 7:00 PM CST ESPN2

Central Michigan (10-2) is led by senior quarterback Dan LeFevour.  LeFevour is a four year starter with some fantastic career numbers.  The "Poor Man's Tim Tebow" as he is called has almost 2800 yards with 25 touchdown passes.  On  the ground, he has 650 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Ohio (9-3) have been one of the surprise teams of the season.  The Bobcats are led by coach Frank Solich - former Nebraska player and coach.  To be honest, I don't know much of anything about either of these teams.  But I will go with the senior leader at quarterback and pick the Chippewas (-10.5) 37-24

2.  Conference USA:  #21 Houston vs. East Carolina Saturday December 5th 11:00 A.M.

East Carolina (8-4) have just one conference loss this season - to bowl eligible SMU.  All other three losses have been to major conference opponents.  Senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney is having a descent season with almost 2500 yards and 13 touchdown passes.  However, Pinkney has thrown 10 picks as well.

Houston (10-2) has had quite the season.  Highlighted by a week 2 win over then #5 Oklahoma State.  For many thought that this Houston Cougar team would be this year's BCS buster until a surprising loss to UTEP ended hopes of that.  The Cougars lost agian to UCF later in the season but are coming in red hot after a wins of 55-14 over Memphis and 73-14 over Rice to end the season.  Junior quarterback Case Keenum is having a great season with nearly 5,000 pass yards and 38 touchdown passes.  Keenum is thought to be a darkhorse heisman contender and had the team been undefeated would at least be getting an invite to New York for the presentation.  I see Houston (-1) running away with this game 45-17.

3.  Pac-10:  #16 Oregon State @ #7 Oregon Thursday December 3rd 8:00 PM ESPN

And as usual the Pac-10 Champion is USC...........wait.  That's right, for the first time since 2001, the Pac-10 will not be won by USC.  And while there is no official Pac-10 title game, this year's Civil War game will decide the conference championship.  Oregon has not played in the Rose Bowl since the 1994 season, and Oregon State since the 1964 season.  Oregon State (8-3) might be the quietest team this season.  Nationally, we haven't heard much from the Beavers since they beat USC on a Thursday night last season.  The Beavs are led by the Rodgers brothers:  Jacquizz and James.  Jacquizz leads the team in rushing, and James leads in receiving.  Ironically, James is 2nd in rushing, and Jacquizz is 2nd in receiving.  The Quizz has over 1300 yards on the ground with 19 touchdowns and would be the conference's best running back were it not for Stanford's Toby Gerhart.

Oregon (9-2) has been quite the up and down team all season.  Oregon opened the season on the road at Boise State, and we all should remember how that turned out:

But after that game, Oregon ripped off 7 straight wins including a 47-20 domination of USC.  But a loss to Stanford pretty much knocked Oregon out of the national title picture and outside the national spotlight.  With the loss of LaGarrette Blount to suspension, the Oregon running game was thought to be in the tank, but the emergence of LaMichael James (1300 yards 11 TD) and that of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (1800 pass yards 14 TDs and 619 rush yards 12 TDs) has brought Oregon back to the top of the Pac-10.  This game is one of those Thursday night ESPN games that produces a lot of upsets with teams coming off of short weeks and such, but Oregon (-9.5) should be good enough to overcome that.  I see the Duck taking this game 31-20.

4.  Big East:  #5 Cincinnati @ #15 Pittsburgh Saturday December 5th 11:00 AM ABC

This game has lost of a little bit of his luster given Pitt's loss in the Backyard Brawl to West Virginia, but the stakes are still the same.  The winner still wins the Big East and gets the automatic berth in the BCS.  Pitt (9-2) is led by their freshman sensation running back Dion Lewis.  Lewis has nearly 1500 yards on the ground with 13 touchdowns.  Quarterback Bill Stull pretty much just has to not screw up with Lewis in the backfield.  Stull has thrown for 2300 yards and 19 touchdowns

Cincinnati (12-0) still has an outside shot at getting into the national title game with a win.  It would take a Texas loss and some major changes in voting between TCU and Cinci, but it is still possible.  But the only way voters would be willing to consider would be if Cinci can dominate Pitt.  They do have one of the best receivers in the nation in Marty Gilyard who has 75 catches for 1032 yard and 10 touchdowns.  Tony Pike at quarterback was a heisman candidate until he got injured early in the season, but  Zach Collaros held down the fort just fine in his absence.  Near as I can tell online, this game doesn't have a line right now.  I would have thought Cinci would be opening as at least 4 point favorites, but even still, I like Pitt to throw the upset in this one in a very close game 24-23.

5.  ACC Championship Game:  #10 Georgia Tech vs. Clemson Saturday December 5th Jacksonville, FL 7:00 PM ESPN

Wow, what a bad weekend for both of these teams.  Perhaps both were looking ahead a little early towards the title game?  The cream of the ACC crop each lose to a middle of the pack to bottom 1/3 SEC team over the weekend in each team's major in state rivalry game.  Neither team was really affected by the loss however as both had already clinched their berth in this game, and neither had a chance for a national title.  Georgia Tech had an extreme outside shot at it, but it wasn't very likely anyways.  Georgia Tech (10-2) comes in with one of the more interesting offenses in college football.  Many people said that Paul Johnson's flexbone offense wouldn't work in a major conference, and clearly they have been wrong.  Josh Nesbitt is a threat to throw out of the bone, and thus it works very very well.  Johnathan Dwyer and Armando Allen provide the rest of the ground attack going along with Nesbitt.  Clearly, Tech will be looking for revenge.

Clemson (8-4) has had a mostly disappointing season to this point.  After losing 3 of their first 5 games, the Tigers rolled off 6 straight wins before the South Carolina game last weekend including a 40-37 overtime thriller against Miami.  C.J. Spiller is the unquestioned leader for Clemson.  Last weekend Spiller set the NCAA record with 7 career kick return touchdowns.  Spiller has just 900 yards rushing on the season, but he is a threat wherever he is on the field.  Jacoby Ford leads the team in receiving and has legit 4.3, possibly even 4.2 speed at his best.  These teams did play early in the season at Georgia Tech on a Thursday night with Tech taking that game 30-27.  Tech jumped out to an early dominating lead and nearly gave it up late.  I see this game coming down to the wire with Clemson (+1) scoring a late touchdown to win the game 30-27.

6.  Big 12 Championship Game:  #3 Texas vs. Nebraska Saturday December 5th St. Louis, MO 7:00 ABC

On paper, this game should be an easy selection.  One team is highly ranked on rout to a possible National Championship game berth.  The other, is, well, not.  But where have we seen this before.....

Nebraska (9-3) comes in with a mediocre offense but with the stellar defense.  Are the Blackshirts Back?  Well, no, not quite, but they are getting there.   DT Ndamukong Suh is even considered to be a very very darkhorse Heisman candidate - and that says something.  No true defender has ever won the award (Charles Woodson in 1997 got his stats by punt and kick returns mostly) and to have a defensive tackle on the list is amazing.  He won't win it and won't even get an invite to New York, but he will make some ballots.  On offense, the Cornhuskers are led by junior Zac Lee.  This is Lee's first season as the starter, and he has done quite well with almost 2000 yards and 14 touchdowns.

The Longhorns are led of course by Colt McCoy.  McCoy is probably the Heisman leader at this point.  Although it is probably more of a career achievement and not so much a season award as McCoy has just over 3300 yards with 27 touchdowns which are great numbers, but not the best in the nation.  Tre Newton leads the team on the ground, but McCoy is still a threat to run with over 100 carries on the season.  I see Texas (-14) should be able to cover this spread, but I'm not amazingly confident in my pick.  Texas does not play good defense, but luckily for them, Nebraska's offense isn't very good.  I like Texas 37-14.

7.  SEC Championship Game:  #1 Florida vs. #2 Alabama Saturday December 5th Atlanta, GA 3:00 CBS


Do you really think I am going to spoil my end of the week prediction post here?  Forget about it!  You'll have to come back.


Here is my prediction:  It is going to be a good game with the winner playing for the National Title and the loser playing in the Sugar Bowl.

SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Florida: The Way it Should Be

Now that the Iron Bowl and the Florida/Florida State games are out of the way, its time to talk about the game EVERYONE is talking about.  The SEC Championship game.


If you are a fan of the BCS, you love this game.  You will get a guaranteed undefeated team in your national title game and are saved at least some controversy.

If you are a fan of a playoff:   you love this game.  This game IS a playoff.  It is functionally a nationally semi-final matchup.

The History:

Since the SEC Championship game was introduced in 1992, Alabama has faced Florida 6 times with Florida coming out on top in four of them.  This was the matchup in the first three games, four out of five, and five out of the first 8.  But after 1999, it took 9 years for the teams to renew hostilities in Atlanta.  Alabama won the first game 28-21 en-route to the 1992 national championship.  Florida took the next three including a 24-23 thriller in 1994 that knocked Alabama out of a perfect season.

The 1999 game was one of the greatest in Alabama history though.  The teams played in the regular season with Alabama winning 40-39 in overtime.  Everyone thought that was a fluke and Florida would dominate the title game --- they did not.  Alabama won 34-7 and ended up in the Orange Bowl vs. Michigan against some mediocre quarterback named Tom Brady - I know, I haven't heard of him either.

Last season was another national semi-final with Alabama undefeated and #1 vs. one-loss and #2 Florida.  Alabama actually lead the game going into the 4th quarter 20-17, but a great gutty performance by Tim Tebow leading the Gators to two 4th quarter touchdowns was the difference in the ballgame.

I love this matchup.  This is what major college football is about.  A clash of the titans for the right to play for it all.  Check back later this week for analysis and prediction on the game.

Earlier I thought Alabama might open up as 3 point favorites in this one, but after that Iron Bowl there are some weaknesses.  And after the demolition of Florida State I witnessed today, Florida is looking pretty unstoppable.  I think Florida will open up as favorites.  We shall see though.

So here we are.  One week until the big game.  Who are you picking?  Leave a comment with your title game predictions and thoughts.

Check back later this week for analysis and predictions on the game.

Iron Bowl Wrap Up

Wow, what a great game!  I've had a couple of hours to digest the results, a couple of hours to restart my heart after the multiple heart attacks I had, and a couple of hours to begin my preparations for the SEC Title Game!

Raise your hand if you thought Auburn might jump out to an early two touchdown lead the way they did?

*crickets*

Yea, that's what I thought.  It was a nail-biter up until the very end.

Great job by the Alabama offense today, one of the better performances when it was needed this season.  Especially when Heisman contender Mark Ingram was ineffective at best, and just downright awful at worst.

Ingram:  The best running back in the nation.  Today, third best on the team behind Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch.  Richardson shows the nation that he will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.  As for Upchurch, what a moment for him to cap off his Alabama career (at least regular season) scoring the winning touchdown late in the game.

In my opinion, best Iron Bowl since 1996 - another late win for Alabama.  2004 was good too but Auburn really pulled away in the second half of that ballgame.

Team Stat Comparison
1st Downs	17	15
Total Yards	291	332
Passing	218	181
Rushing	73	151
Penalties	4-26	8-68
3rd Down Conversions	5-14	4-12
4th Down Conversions	0-1	0-0
Turnovers	0	2
Possession	33:47	26:13

Neither team hit their season average in yardage.  For Auburn, I expected that.  For Alabama, I expected a MUCH better running game than we got this afternoon.  Alabama gave up more than 100 yards over their average, and gave up 11 more points than their average of just under 10.

Bottom line:  A win is a win.  If you take out that one big 67 yard touchdown on the reverse run by Zachery, and and numbers begin to normalize a little bit more.  I have not seen a Bama defense give up big plays like this at all this season, and I don't like it.  This game was a formula for an upset,  but Alabama overcame that:

1.  On the road
2.  Rivalry
3.  Opponent coming off a bye
4.  Opponent with nothing to lose
5.  SI Cover Jinx (though it may have jinxed Ingram)

There is a reason Vegas sets the odds and I do not.  I would have bet the house, the farm, the car, and whatever else that Alabama would cover the spread this afternoon - and they did not.

I fear that maybe, MAYBE Ingram was starting to believe the hype.  He has been getting it from the media for weeks, he was on the Sports Illustrated cover this week, his boys back in Michigan created a song for his Heisman campaign, and back in Flint Michigan, today was Mark Ingram Day.  If he was gonna have a bad game, I would rather it had been today than next week against Florida.

On a more positive note, how about the play of Greg McElroy today!  Oft criticized as the offensive weak link, McElroy showed me just how valuable a leader he is tonight.   21/31 218 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Efficient and quality stats.  But to me, it is THE DRIVE that sets his day apart.

Alabama gets the ball down by one with 8:27 on the clock and 80 yards to go.  McElroy started the drive with an incompletion, but after that first play he went 7-for-7 for 63 yards and the critical 3rd down touchdown pass to Roy Upchurch.

McElroy has not lost a game as a starting quarterback since Middle School - AT LEAST!!! - I wasn't able to find his middle school stats.

Before today, people were comparing you to John Parker Wilson.  After today, calls of Jay Barker should begin to ring.

So bottom line:  it is a win.  Alabama will play in Atlanta, and they will play in a BCS game regardless of the outcome of the title game.  Will it be in Pasadena or in New Orleans is all that remains to be seen on that.  Ingram's injury does not appear to be serious, so he should be back.  His Heisman campaign took a serious hit today, but voters should not cast those ballots until they see what happens next Saturday night in the Georgia Dome.

Roll Tide!

Auburn Hate Week! Friday - GAME DAY Prediction

It's here!  The IRON BOWL is TODAY!

Before we get into the game, here is some pregame audio you need to listen to to get PUMPED for this game!  On paper, it might look like a blow out.  Not to mention if you just listen to talk radio or watch ESPN at all.  But lets take a look a little bit deeper.

The Offenses:

Statistically, both offenses have been very similar during the season, but Auburn's has been more potent:

Stat	Alabama	Ncaa Rank	Auburn	Ncaa Rank
Total Yards	418	30th	441.5	16th
Passing Yards	198	96th	234.7	54th
ushing Yards	225.6	10th	219.5	11th
Points Scored	32.2	24th	34	15th

Advantage:  Auburn

Auburn runs a spread offense led by Gus Malzahn, the former coach at Springdale High School in Arkansas, and at the University of Tulsa.  The jury is still out as to whether or not this offense will be more of a fad or a mainstay in college football.  Even with this spread style, Auburn loves to run the ball, but does throw it around some.  They still live on the ground though with Ben Tate and Ontario McCalebb.

Alabama runs a more traditional pro style offense, but there are a lot of Wildcat and Pistol formations thrown in.  Alabama's bread and butter is on the ground with two great backs in Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson.  Lets take a look at the running games of each school:

Player	Carries	Yards	Average	TD
Mark Ingram	205	1399	6.8	12
Trent Richardson	100	511	5.1	5
Ben Tate	225	1209	5.4	8
Onterio McCalebb	94	524	5.6	4

These two running games on paper are surprisingly similar.  Both have a more experienced lead back (Ingram, Tate) with a Freshman change of pace back getting a lot of fan attention (Richardson, McCalebb).  I give Alabama the advantage here, but it is closer than a lot of people think.  The possible X-Factor here is Kodi Burns.  Burns was thought to be the savior at quarterback, but that hasn't really panned out.  However, he has found a nice niche as a Wildcat style replacement quarterback gaining 154 yards with 4 touchdowns.  Although, much of that came early in the season.  Since then, Burns has moved over to receiver.

It is important to note on offense however, that even though Auburn dominates the statistical categories accross the board, in the team's six common opponents (MSU, UT, Arkansas, UK, LSU, and Ole Miss) Alabama out-gained Auburn against that same opponent three times.

Defense:

Up to now, this game looks like it might be pretty even.  But here is where Alabama will begin to separate itself:

Stat	Alabama	Ncaa Rank	Auburn	Ncaa Rank
Points Per Game	9.9	2nd	27	78th
Yards Per Game	225.2	1st	359.2	56th
Pass Yards Per Game	154.64	5th	189.45	28th
Rush Yards Per Game	70.54	2nd	169.72	88th

Advantage:  Alabama (Duh!)

Wow, those stats are even more amazing than I thought before I compiled them.  Alabama is in the top 5 in all major defensive statistical categories, and Auburn doesn't crack the top 25 in any of them.  Alabama is 10th in the nation in rushing, and Auburn is 88th at giving it up --- wow.  Alabama has not given up a 100 yard rusher in 33 games.  "The Law Firm" of Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis for Ole Miss in 2007 was the last back to accomplish the feat against Alabama.

Here is a look at the Alabama projected starting defense:

Player	Position	Height	Weight	Class
Lorenzo Washington	DE	6-5	290	SR
Brandon Deaderick	DE	6-4	287	SR
Terrance Cody	DT/NT	6-5	365	SR
Cory Reamer	LB	6-4	234	SR
Eryk Anders	LB	6-2	227	SR
Rolando McClain	LB	6-4	258	JR
Nico Johnson	LB	6-3	225	FR
Javier Arenas	CB	5-9	198	SR
Kareem Jackson	CB	5-11	192	JR
Mark Barron	S	6-2	215	SO
Justin Woodall	S	6-2	220	SR

Wow, that is a STOUT defense!  There is a reason this is one of the best units, probably the best unit, in the nation.  If Alabama can complete the undefeated season, this may go down as one of the best defenses in NCAA history.  But there are still three games to go before we can talk about anything like that.  Only one problem here:  LOOK AT ALL THE SENIORS on the list.  7 Seniors, and 2 Juniors that have the ability to leave early - if not both Jackson and McClain, at least McClain can leave early and will be a top 15 draft pick, possible top 5.  In that starting 11, I see at least 8 players that can make impacts on NFL rosters soon.  Really, I don't see anyone that couldn't, but there probably isn't a starting 11 anywhere that had EVERYONE play in the NFL, not even those great USC teams in the 2000's. But that isn't a problem for the rest of this season, that is only a problem for next year.  At this point though, Alabama doesn't really need to "rebuild" after a good season, they simply just "reload". 

Special Teams:

So special teams may not be worth any fancy table like the other stats, but it is still worth noting.  Leigh Tiffin leads Alabama in scoring (and is now the school's all-time leader in points as well) with 109 going 25-28 on field goal attempts on the season.  He has not missed since he missed 2 kicks vs. South Carolina 5 games ago.  And while on special teams, we have to talk about Javier Arenas.  He holds the SEC record for most kick return touchdowns, and is only 100 yards away from becoming the SEC all time kick return yardage leader.  For Auburn Wes Byrum is perfect on extra points on the season and only has one field goal miss.  Byrum has been statistically great his whole career, while Tiffin has been often criticized until this season.  On kick returns - I have no idea who Auburn uses, and I really don't care - he won't be better than Arenas.

Advantage:  Alabama

Prediction:
Classic SEC slug-fest on the ground all afternoon.  The Alabama defense vs. the Auburn offense will be the match-up to watch, and if you MUST turn away from the TV, do it during the Alabama offense vs. Auburn defense portion of the game.  According to Vegas, Alabama is a 10 or 10.5 point favorite.  According to bodog, that line started out with Alabama a 12.5 point favorite, and it has gone DOWN since.  Last week on Gametime, I predicted a three touchdown advantage for Alabama - or at least 17 points.  This number looks to be a sucker bet to me.  I know, I know, "It's a rivalry game, you never know."  "It's on the road, and Auburn always plays well at home."  "A win here makes Auburn's season, they can play loose and takes more risks."  "Those Auburn kids are out to PROVE they deserved Alabama scholarship offers."  "Our defense has caught some bad breaks, we are better than we have looked."  "Don't forget about the SI cover Jinx!  "Remember 20 years ago when Bama was #2 and lost on the Plains?"  I've heard it all, I just don't buy any of it.

Auburn may well take an early lead in this game, that would not surprise me.  It will be one of the best offenses Alabama has faced all season.  But it will not last.  I like Alabama to take control of the game early on the strength of Mark Ingram's legs and never look back.  Ingram will be good for 130 and 2 touchdowns.  McElroy will hit the 200 yard mark with one touchdown, and Tiffin will hit 2-3 field goals.  I think Auburn gets an early 3-0 lead and scores a late touchdown to bring the game closer than it needs to be, but in the end Alabama will be way too strong for the Tigers this afternoon.

Alabama will roll on to Atlanta undefeated for a Clash of the Titans 8 days from now!

Alabama 27 Auburn 10.