Heisman Handicapping

Yesterday, ESPN announced the five college football players who would be making the trip to New York for the Heisman trophy presentation:

1.  Toby Gerhart, RB Stanford
2.  Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
3.  Colt McCoy, QB Texas
4.  Ndomukong Suh, DT Nebraska
5.  Tim Tebow, QB Florida

Here is a little rundown on each player and why he should win the award

1.  Toby Gerhart:

311 Carries
1,736 Yards
26 Touchdown

Why He Should Win:

Gerhart has been the most consistent running back this season in all of NCAA Division 1A football.  He leads the league in both yards and touchdowns.  He had at least 100 yards in all but 2 games this season and those games were of 82 and 96 yards respectively.  Stanford has come back to national recognition this season, and Gerhart is the primary reason for this.  He is a powerful runner who looks to be a great pro prospect as well as a fantastic college back.

Why He Should Not Win:

Gerhart's team is 8-4 on the season and did not win its conference.  The Pac-10 does not have divisions, but even if they did Stanford's 4th place finish would not have gotten them into the game.  He is the only player among the top 5 that did not play for a conference title, and really in the top 8 if you consider Kellen Moore (Boise), Dion Lewis (Pitt) and C.J. Spiller (Clemson) in the mix.  No player has won the Heisman on a team with at least 4 losses since 1987 (Tim Brown, Notre Dame).  Gerhart also led the nation in carries, so his yards and touchdown numbers are skewed because of that .  His yard per carry average of 5.6 that ranks just 50th in the NCAA.  In both games Gerhart rushed for under 100 yards, his team lost.  So yes that shows that he is critical to his team's success, but it also shows that when his team needs him the most, he doesn't show up.

2.  Mark Ingram

249 Attempts
1,542 Yards
15 Touchdowns

Why He Should Win:

Mark Ingram has been the leader for the nations number one team, and that should count for something.  Ingram's yards rank him 5th in the NCAA, and his 15 touchdowns put him 14th, and his yards per attempt put him 26th nationally.  For a stretch in the middle of the season, Ingram led Alabama by himself to some hard fought victories against SEC competition while QB Greg McElroy was going through a midseason slump.  Ingram is the best player on the best team in the nation.

Why He Should Not Win:

Ingram has not been very consistent this season at all.  He has 8 games with at least 100 yards rushing, but 5 games under 100 (Tennessee was close with 99 yards).  The most notable bad game was Auburn.  Ingram had just 30 yards rushing on 16 carries and was noticeably absent from the field late in the game.  True, he did get hurt, but that happened very late and was not related to his injury.  Other than Auburn however, each games Ingram was under 99 yards were all in blowouts where he was pulled late to give more carries to Trent Richardson.  But speaking of Richardson, he is probably a better back than Ingram is.  Can you really give the Heisman to the 2nd best back on a team?  Sure his numbers are better, but watching Richardson run is like watching magic on the football field.  Ingram is more just pound it up the middle and run you over.  It should also be noted that no Alabama player has ever won the Heisman trophy.

3.  Colt McCoy

3,512 Yards
27 Touchdowns
147.46 rating

Why He Should Win:

Colt McCoy has had the most consistent career among any of the finalists.  Texas has been a national power in each of McCoy's four seasons at starter and that is primarily thanks to him.  For the last couple of seasons, McCoy has had no running game to speak of and yet, have only lost one game - which was a one point road loss to Texas Tech last season.  For two seasons in a row, McCoy has led the Longhorns in rushing attempts, and last season also led them in yards.  This year, McCoy is 3rd nationally in completion percentage, 6th in yards, 8th in touchdowns, and 18th in passing efficiency.  Combined with his rushing stats, and McCoy can't mean more to his team than any other player.

Why He Should Not Win:

Colt McCoy hasn't really don't anything this season to win him the award.  His "Heisman Moment" was a great offensive performance against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving.  But should a great win over a 6-6 team really be your "moment?"  I don't think so.  Combine that with McCoy's pitiful performance in the Big 12 title game, and there really is no reason in the 2009 season to give Colt this award.  However, McCoy was considered one of the "Big 3" coming into the season along with Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford.  Tebow and Bradford each won their trophies, so now it is McCoy's turn as long as he didn't mess up.  And he did not mess it up.  However, the Heisman is not supposed to be a career achievement award, it is a season award.  And McCoy's season really doesn't even make him a top five worthy candidate.


4.  Ndamukong Suh

82 Tackles
12 Sacks
1 Int

Why He Should Win:

Simply, Suh is probably the most dominant performer in all of NCAA football this season.  Suh is 3rd in the nation in sacks with 12 and a total of 82 tackles.  That may not be alot of tackles, but his job is gap control on running plays taking on the double team.  That frees up your linebackers to make the tackles.  Suh simply cannot be blocked by just one player and teams are forced to gameplan around him.  If the award is truly for the most outstanding player in the game, Suh fits that to a T.

Why He Should Not Win:

Suh is a defensive player.  No true defender has ever won the award in modern football.  Charles Woodson of Michigan in 1997 was primarily a defensive player, but he got a lot of his numbers on punt return yardage which really helped him win the award.  Suh does not have a lot of tackles, but again, he is not supposed to in that defensive scheme.  If Nebraska had beaten Texas in the Big 12 title game, I would say Suh had a legit shot.  However, since they did not, I don 't see a lot of first place votes going to Suh.  He just doesn't have the numbers a Heisman winner needs to have.

Tim Tebow

2,413 Yards
18 Touchdowns
155.59 Rating

Why He Should Win:

Tim Tebow has been the most outstanding player in college football over the past three seasons hands down.  He has lost just twice in the past two seasons and is the unquestioned leader of the Florida Gators.  Tebow's passing numbers do not totally do him justice since we all know it is his legs that make him the player he is.  Tebow's 203 carries are more than double that of the next highest Gator (Jeffery Demps 96) and he leads the team in yards as well.  His 13 touchdowns on the ground also lead the team.  Tebow is the SEC record holder for rushing touchdowns, a record to obtained this season against Georgia.  Tim Tebow is what is right about college football.  We can hate him if we want to, but he is a great role model, he is a great person, and he will be a success in life after his days at Florida are over.

Why He Should Not Win:

Because this season, Tebow was not Tebow for much of the season.  After his concussion vs. Kentucky, he just wasn't the same for several weeks.  Maybe that isn't totally fair, but it has to be considered.  The "Mighty Gators" nearly lost to SEC West bottom feeder Mississippi State and perpetual "also-ran" Arkansas and really needed some Zebra help to beat Arkansas late.  Tebow's SEC title performance was horrible as Alabama simply controlled that game and Tebow.  The Alabama defense is JUST THAT GOOD though, but a Heisman winner should be able to overcome it.  Tebow's celebrated career should not end with the fairy tale Heisman trophy, and WILL not end with a national championship.

The GURU's prediction:

This should be the tightest race in Heisman history.  There was really no "Heisman Moment" for any player this season and no one really separated himself from the field.  Gerhart is the most dominant on offense, but his team wasn't nearly as good as the rest.  Ingram and McCoy's teams are undefeated and playing for the title and they are the unquestioned leaders, however their numbers are good not great by Heisman standards.  Suh is the most dominant but plays an unflashy defensive postion, and Tebow just didn't show up this season, but is the most celebrated player in college football history.  If I had a ballot, here is what it would look like:

1.  Mark Ingram
2.  Toby Gerhart
3.  Colt McCoy
4.  Ndamukong Suh
5.  C.J. Spiller
6.  Tim Tebow
7.  Kellen Moore
8.  Dion Lewis
9.  Andy Dalton

I have been going back and forth for days of this, but this is how I think it will shake out:

1.  Toby Gerhart
2.  Mark Ingram
3.  Colt McCoy
4.  Ndamukong Suh
5.  Tim Tebow

All I really know, Tebow should be 5th place.  But you can make a case for any of the other top four in any order, and I could not totally disagree with you.

Make sure to watch the ceremony on Saturday night and find out for yourself!

SEC Title Hangover! ROLL TIDE

Hey guys.  Sorry for the lack of posts this week. Cross Country drive + lack of internet access = no posts from the GURU.  But I'm back now!

I had the chance to be in Atlanta this past weekend, and WOW what a game!  Alabama was just dominant from start to finish and it is going to be a BCS Championship game for the Ages next month!

Oh yea, and Tebow....CRIED on National Television!  I LOVE IT!!!



I hear some people saying that "Don't make fun of him, he's just an emotional guy!"  You know what, I don't care about that.  Yea, it is great that he is an emotional guy and all.  It is what drives him to be as great as he is.  He wears his heart on his sleeve and all of that.  But c'mon, if you are THAT good, if you are the second coming, if you are Jesus himself, if you are the illegitimate son of Chuck Norris, if Superman wears YOUR pajamas, you need to SUCK IT UP AND ACT LIKE A MAN OUT THERE!!!!!!

I don't blame Tebow for all of this hype.  In a lot of ways the media built him up to something he cannot live up to, and that is not his fault. 

But I LOVED seeing those tears.  I cheered.  I yelled and screamed when I saw those tears on the TV, and apparently they made it onto the jumbotron in the stadium as well!  I loved it.  And I loved that it was ALABAMA that did it to him! 

Tim Tebow:  ultimate SHAD FACE!!!!!

Now, back to the game.

Straight up domination on the part of Alabama.  I never made an official blog prediction on the game, but It would have been Alabama 19-16.  There was no chance, NO CHANCE that Alabama would be able to control the ball on offense against the nation's top defense not wearing Crimson, and no way they could control that offense.  I knew they could contain it, but they completely stopped it!  They took away the big play, they got the key turnovers, and on offense, they just controlled the ball.  They lined up and said "ok we are running right at you, and now you stop it!"  They did not stop it.

I couldn't be happier

Oh, and Mark Ingram is squaely back in the Heisman discussions this week.  As well he should be.  Heisman's are season awards.  You shouldn't be able to lose it with one game (Auburn) but you also shouldn't win it based on one game.  He has a fantastic game against Florida, but that shouldn't win it.  What should win it is a season of dominance capped off by a final game of dominance. 

Same goes for McCoy.  Everyone wanted to give him the trophy after the Texas A&M game.  Now, no one wants to give it to him after the Nebraska game.  Look at his WHOLE SEASON!  Is it a worthy season?  Absolutely.  And anyone that votes for him will be well within their rights to do so.  I think Ingram is better and more important to his team that McCoy is to Texas, but I couldn't disagree with a McCoy selection.

Lots of little notes thrown into this post, sorry for that.  Hopefully later this week I can have some better posts for you all!