Dawgs All Bark, No Bite

The Gators took the lead just barely 3 minutes into the game, and never looked back.  Tebow was vintage Tebow (15-21 164 2 TD passing --- 18 carries 84 yards 2 TD rushing), and unfortunately Cox was vintage Cox (11/20 164 2 TD 3 INT).  Adding insult to injury was Logan Gray's performance (0/3 0 yards 1 INT) in the 41-17 thumping.

Not going to get into all the details of the game, you can read those here. 

The bigger question mark is where are these teams headed?

Florida has now won 2 in a row, 4 of the last 5, 10 of the last 12, and 17 of the last 20 against Georgia.  In the last two meetings, Florida won by a combined score of 90-27.

Florida:
Winners of 2 of the last 3 national titles.  In the season in the middle, Tim Tebow won the Heisman Trophy
Never less than 9 wins with Meyer as head coach (2005-present)
consistent top recruiting classes

Florida's seems to be going nowhere but up.  They will lose their two top players Tim Tebow and Brandon Spikes to graduation after this season, but there are plenty of people waiting in the wings to take over.  Florida's bench could probably start at just about any other SEC school at this point.


Georgia:
 No less than 8 wins in the Mark Richt era (8 years)
2002 SEC champions
2003 and 2007 SEC East champions

Since 2005, here is Georgia's record against their biggest rivals:

Florida:  1-4
Tennessee:  3-2
Auburn:  3-1
Georgia Tech:  3-1
Alabama:  1-1

Last season Georgia lost to Alabama, Florida, and Georgia Tech - and that was with 1st round NFL talent at quarterback and running back.

Georgia also lost to Vanderbilt and Kentucky in 2006

Mark Richt has Georgia in the category of good, but never great.  The 2007 team had potential - especially with their throttling of Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl that season - but just couldn't get over the hump.  As long as Meyer stays at Florida, Georgia is not going to be kings of the SEC east.  They just can't seem to pull together wins over all the big rivals in the same season.

Georgia can only hope that Tennessee and Auburn stay down (even though they got destroyed by UT this season) because Florida isn't going anywhere, and even though they don't play every year, Alabama isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I love the Dawgs.  I just picked the wrong season to solidify them as my second favorite team.  Those of you who helped make this decision for me, you know who you are!  And you picked the wrong year!

So this begs the question, is it time for Richt to get out of town?

Iowa?!? Are you serious?

So I decide not to even watch the Iowa game this morning.  I'm gonna focus on the Ole Miss vs. Auburn game and just not care about Iowa.  Its just Indiana, they will take care of business.

All of a sudden, the bottom line comes out and I see Indiana 14, Iowa 0.

SERIOUSLY?!?!  Ok, this game will at least be worth staying on the last channel button

21-7 at halftime!  Ok, this is good.  We're gonna have a shakeup this weekend.

Iowa Quarterback Santzi throws a pick on FIVE STRAIGHT DRIVES in the 3rd quarter?

This game is over!  Back to the increasingly one-sided Auburn vs. Ole Miss game

oops


4 straight touchdown drives in the 4th quarter led by Stanzi

AND THEY COVERED THE SPREAD!!!!


Wow, just wow

Week 9 The Bye Week

Alabama's bye week gives me a week to just watch the games for the sake of watching them and not strategically trying to figure out how I'm gonna get to watch Alabama play.

Here are some of the best games at each time slot:

The morning:  11:00-2:00 start time:
Indiana @ #4 Iowa

This should be a huge win for the Hawkeyes.  More importantly though, this will give the nation a chance to finally get a good look at the team.  Nationally, we saw them defeat Penn State early in the season, but that was before anyone thought Iowa had anything to give this season.  That was all about the Penn State choke, not the Iowa win.  Now, with Iowa sitting at Number 4 in the BCS, we need to be shown that they deserve to be there.  As 17.5 point favorites, they need a dominating victory to show they belong,  Iowa's brand of football will not give the this type of victory though.  And they have a history of playing down to their competition.  I see Iowa winning to the tune of 24-17.

#25 Ole Miss @ Auburn 11:21

Which Auburn team is going to show up this weekend?  The one that dominated Tennessee (the team that nearly beat #2 Alabama) or the team that loses to Kentucky?  Frankly, which Ole Miss team is going to show up?  The team from last week that physically dominated Arkansas, or the one from the rest of the season that hasn't looked very good.  Ole Miss is getting 5 on the road at Auburn.  I think Auburn gets it done at home on the strength of the running game and defense 20-13.

The Afternoon:  2:30 - 4:30 start time
Georgia vs. #1 Florida (Jacksonville) 2:30

Amazingly enough, there isn't much going on in the afternoon slot this weekend.  This game is always a battle though.  Florida's offense has been sputtering as of late, and they are getting tired.  Tebow isn't the same Tebow as in years past.  He is probably still not right after his early season concussion.  Their running game can't get it done consistently, and their receivers are just not stepping up.  But Georgia also hasn't looked great this year as of yet.  They got SMOKED by Tennessee a couple weeks back, but also should have beaten LSU were it not for that horrible excessive celebration call.  Florida is getting 15.5 in this one.  I do see a Gator win, but I don't see it by that much.  Pick Georgia by Vegas, but pick the Gators head to head 35-24.

Evening:  5:00 - 700

#22 South Carolina @ Tennessee 6:45

Tennessee is a lot better than their 3-4 record indicates.  But I don't think South Carolina is as good as their 6-2 record.  USCe is getting 6.5 in the game, but I'm picking Tennessee out right.  Jonathan Crompton might finally be coming out of his shell as a quarterback.  A couple of good games back to back could be a trend.  The gamecock defense is very good though.  They only allowed one offensive touchdown to Alabama, and that was late in the 4th quarter.  I still see the UT win but close 17-14.

#3 Texas @ #14 Oklahoma State 7:00

Big time statement game for the Longhorns.  Their toughest competition of the season, Oklahoma, is down this season with the loss of Bradford.  Okie State is going to be without Dez Bryant it looks like for the rest of the season however.  Bryant was by far the biggest play maker on the team.  Texas is giving 9.5 in the game, but I see a much bigger win than that.  Colt McCoy needs this game to really secure his Heisman front runner status, and Texas needs it to maybe even overtake the SEC teams as the top team in the nation.  A two touchdown win over a top 15 could just do that.  If State jumps out to an early lead, don't worry about it.  They do that almost every year against Texas, and Texas finds a way to come back.  Old fashioned shoot-out in the southwest.  Texas 49-35.

#5 USC @ #10 Oregon 7:00 GAME OF THE WEEK

USC always has a hard time on the road in the Pac-10.  But they already have their hiccup against Washington behind them.  Oregon is always very tough at home too.  They have more than recovered from their opening week egg laying against Boise State.  USC needs a statement victory if they want to stay in the national title race.  With four major conference undefeated teams ahead of them (five if you want to count Cincinnati) they need some help to get into the title game.  Or, they need a huge win over a top ten opponent.  USC is giving 3 in the game, which sounds about right.  I do expect a cover, but not by much.  Maybe a seven point win 27-20.

Tim Tebow vs. Herschel Walker

Lots of chatter on the messages boards in the last couple of weeks about Tim Tebow's eventual breaking of Hershel Walker's all-time SEC leading rushing touchdown mark:

Orlando Sentinal:
Tebow's EyeBlack
TimTEBlog:
Battle Hymn Notes:
Gator Sports: 
Bamaonline:

(may need a login to read the last one)

They are tied at 49 right now so it seems inevitable.  No one (well no one in their right mind anyways) is questioning that Tebow is a great player.  But they do question the legitimacy of this record.  Here are the arguments:

1.  They count stats in Bowl games now, they did not when Walker played
2.  Tebow plays one extra game a year in the regular season - 2 if you count the SEC title game
3.  Tebow played for four years, Walker left after this junior season

My first question is, why do we care anyways?  They are both great players.  And even if Tebow didn't break it, he is still one of the most prolific backs in SEC and even NCAA history.  His rushing numbers alone would qualify as Hall of Fame worthy never mind all of his touchdown passes, Heisman Trophy, and two (maybe three) national titles.

But ok, aside from all of that, lets look at each argument:

1.  They count bowl games now:
Tebow has two rushing touchdowns in bowl games to add to his totals.  Walker had five TDs in bowl games...so his "real" total is maybe 54

2.  Extra game (12 game regular season) and the SEC title game

Ok, Tebow has played in 2 SEC title games:  0 rushing touchdowns
The extra game is a non conference game.  In all non conference games other than FSU (since they always played them every year anyways and thus would not be the "extra" game) Tebow has totaled 9 rushing touchdowns over 11 games.  For averages sake, lets take out 3 rushing touchdowns to account for the extra game.   Using those same avearges, you can say Walker averaged 1.5 TD/Game....so lets give him 3 to account for the extra games.

So now we are at 5 TDs that "shouldn't count" for Tebow OR 5-8 TD's that "should count" for Walker

3.  Tebow played four years, not three

Ok, this is the hardest to talk about.  It is a true statement that Tebow has played a senior season that Walker did not have.

But it is kinda hard to really and truly count Tebow's freshman season in the same way you count Walkers.  Here are their combined rushing stats for their respective freshman seasons:


Player        Attempts       Yards       Touchdowns
Walker      274                1616        15
Tebow      89                     469        8

Both Players had their best statistical seasons of sophomores:

Player       Attempts       Yards       Touchdowns
Walker     385              1891         20
Tebow      210              895          23

It really was the Junior season that set Walker apart

Player       Attempts       Yards       Touchdowns
Walker     335               1752        17
Tebow     176                673          12

Through three seasons, Walker had 49 Tds, (3 of those TDs listed must have been receiving) Tebow 43

Carries Per Touchdown:  Walker 20.29  Tebow:  11.05
Yes, that doesn't take into account that Tebow gets a high percentage of carries in the red zone.  It also doesn't take into account sacks that count of quarterback carries.

As for passing touchdowns:  Walker 0 (that I know of) Tebow 67

Given the way Tebow's freshman season went, as a spot third down full back, I would say that this works out to about even frankly.  Sure, you can take about the five "extra" TDs Tebow had in this time frame with the extra games that didn't count.  But if you are going to do that, you have to take into account that Tebow wasn't the main quarterback in any game of that freshman season.  Yes, he came in on the goal line at times.  But it was a few plays a game and then that was it.

But let's not forget the main point here, TEBOW IS A QUARTERBACK!!!!!  His career will be based on how well he THROWS the ball, not runs with it in the end.  If you can get the most rushing touchdowns in conference history ON THE SIDE, you are secured your spot as one of the greatest of all time without question.

When all is said and done, these players will both end up in the top 10 if not top 5 players in all of college football history.  We are splitting hairs to really care about this, but the fact is people do care, so here we are.

Week 8: SEC Referee Madness

Pretty bad weekend to be on official in the SEC.

On Thursday, the officiating crew that did the LSU vs. Georgia, and the Arkansas vs. Florida game were suspended for some very questionable calls in those two games.

This phantom excessive celebration call against A.J Green of Georgia started it all they did try to make up for it by calling LSU for the same garbage on their ensuing touchdown, butt the magnitude at that point was nothing compared:





Then, that same crew did the Arkansas/Florida game with a trio of bad calls late in the game:

1.  Phantom pass interference
2.  Phantom personal foul
3.  Horrible spot of the ball - although this one not nearly as bad



Fast forward to this weekend:

Lane Kiffin complains that Terrance Cody was not given a personal foul call for taking off his helmet on the final play of the game.  He also said he only let the clock run down for that field goal attempt instead of running another play because "You run another play and you throw an interception or they throw a flag on us -- I wasn't going to let the refs lose the game for us there and some magical flag appear.

Yes, Lane is right, a personal foul call could have been throw.  But if it had, it would not have been like the Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs in either 2001 or 2002 when it gave the Chiefs a chance for a winning field goal.  This was a dead ball foul AFTER the change of possession which would have backed Alabama up but not changed the outcome.

For his other quote, just SHUT UP!  If the refs really wanted Alabama to win they would have called that pass interference in the end zone earlier in the game that probably cost Alabama a touchdown.



Oh but we are not done yet.  Dan Mullen, Mississippi State coach, called for the suspension of the replay official in their game against Florida for not overturning the pick-six because the Florida defender lost possession before crossing the plane of the goal line.

Yes, it should have been overturned.  Yes, it would have been State's ball at the 20.  But you can't tell me anyone on here thinks it would have actually mattered in the end.

I hate all of this focus on referees.  The call against A.J. Green was horrible.  But so was Georgia's play all game when they had plenty of chances to win the game on their own.

Arkansas:  score touchdowns instead of kicking field goals and that drive doesn't matter to you.

Kiffin, JUST SHUT UP!  I don't even care about this particular instance, I just want you to shut up anyways.  I might not hate you as much as I hated Fulmer, but you are getting close.

Mullen, you lost the game by two scores.  That play only counts for one score....so you would have needed to score again on your own anyways.  You see how that works?

Referee's are going to make mistakes.  This is true.  But referees do not effect game outcomes.  If a referee makes 5 bad calls a game, that leaves 95 other plays where they did not.  You had plenty of time to make a play in the rest of the game, and you didn't do it.  Stop blaming refs, and take the Bear Bryant approach.

In the 1960's, Joe Namath thought he got into the end zone against Texas and would have won the game.  The ref said no, and Texas won.  Namath came back to the sideline complaining to Bryant.  Bryant just looked at him and said that it shouldn't have even come down to that.  If we had gotten one more score earlier, this play wouldn't have mattered.








So everyone, JUST SHUT UP AND PLAY FOOTBALL!!!!

Tennessee Week: Day 3: More Videos

Found a few videos stached on the hard drive from the 2002 and 2005 games.  Thought I would share them.

Oh, and yes I realize I am posting "Day 3" on Thursday instead of of Tuesday - but working 15 hour days doesn't leave much time for blog updates!

2002:

http://www.mediafire.com/?yjzdx2wl5ty

2005:

Buddy's Video
http://www.mediafire.com/?tmmd3yrimwx

Crimson Tradition Video:
http://www.mediafire.com/?doytqqdnznf

Tennessee Week: Day 2 - The Victories

Going into this weekend, Tennessee has a 5-4 record against Alabama this decade in the head to head match ups.  Alabama has won the last two in a row.  Here are some highlights from the four Crimson Tide Victories

2002:  34-14




Tennessee had a 7 game winning streak over Alabama heading into that game.  It was the longest winning streak in the series for Tennessee.  But it all ended thanks to a great defense and a high powered option based offense.  The highlight of the game was the 66 yard fumble recovery by Gerald "Smoke" Dixon (though some of us know him as "Pop Tart") on a failed backwards UT pass. 

2005:  6-3



It wasn't the greatest of offensive performances, but Alabama did what it had to do with some turnovers and a great defense, and of course, with "Rocky Stop." 

2007: 41-17



John Parker Wilson has his best statistical day at quarterback for Alabama in this 41-17 win.  Alabama had five players suspended in the game for textbook violations, which is something we are still fighting today.

 2008:  29-9



Dominating victory.  Bama played well in all facets of the game and totally just mopped the floor with Tennessee last season.

*For better highlight videos from the 2007 and 2008 seasons, go to Roll With The Tide.

Tennessee Week: Day 1 - General Thoughts

Day 1 of Tennessee Week begins today.  We've had a night to sleep off the South Carolina win, now its on to Tennessee.  This man right here epitomizes ALL of the Alabama nation's views about Tennessee:






Couldn't have said it any better myself

Week 7 Musings and Wrap Up

As I write this a couple of games are still going on but the week is mostly done.  Couple of thoughts.  Starting at the top of the polls:

1.  Florida great team but has some weaknesses

If I had a ballot, I would still be voting Florida number 1.  I love this Alabama team and am excited for a possible 1 vs 2 match up in Atlanta for the SEC title game, but Florida is a great team.  I think Tebow is still feeling some ill effects from the concussion and is just not himself yet.  Spikes has been hurt, Joe Haden has been hurt so that is two leaders off of that defense that have been out.  But two straight games with low offensive output gives hope for everyone else in the SEC that Florida might be beatable.  Florida gave up nearly as many points today as they had all season so far (20 today, 32 all year).  I think if Florida and Alabama played today, Florida would come in 2 point favorites, and it would be a defensive slugfest 13-10 type of game.  But more on Alabama in a bit.

2.  Texas - not a great team right now, but lot of promise

If Texas doesn't find a way to run the ball better, this is going to be a long end of the season for the longhorns.  Good news is that they just jumped their biggest hurdle today in Oklahoma.  They needed some lucky calls, turnovers, and an injury to Sam Bradford to do it though.  McCoy ended up with some ok numbers of 21/39 127 yards 1 TD 1 INT, but that is very unlike the QB that throws mostly short passes for a great than 70% completion percentage.  Of course when you can stop the run, you are a good team.  And i think allowing -16 rushing yards is pretty good.  When your second "leading" rusher has -2 yards, the defense did something right.  Back to back weeks on the road against Missouri and Oklahoma State over the next two weekends will go a long way in determining the season.  If they win these two, I don't see another team that can stop Texas until the BCS title game.

3.  Alabama - Showing Weakness?

I have been saying since Week 4 against Arkansas that Alabama isn't a great offensive team.  Sure, they won that game going away and are undefeated, but its not because of their offense.  McElroy hasn't had a great outing in a few weeks.  Certainly not in the past two games, but I don't think he has looked great since the North Texas game.  He relied on big plays against Arkansas which like I said at the time is not good long term, and against Kentucky he didn't show much until the last drive of the first half.
Of course the glowing exception to all of this is the running game, specifically Mark Ingram.  Ingram ran for 246 yards and one touchdown against South Carolina tonight including EVERY yard on the game clinching, clock killing 4th quarter drive.  EVERY play was either a direct snap or hand off to Ingram on that drive.  South Carolina knew what was coming, and they still couldn't stop it.  When the Heisman lists start coming out tomorrow and Monday, expect to see that name all over them.  But on defense, there is not another defense in the nation that is better than Alabama, and only Florida comes even close.  There may be 10 NFL players on that defense when all is said and done.  Hightower goes down, we replace him.  Arenas goes down, and we just fill in with another guy without missing a beat.

4.  Heisman --- do we have a leader?

Here are some of the top contenders:

1.  Tebow - not looking like himself
2.  McCoy - not looking like himself
3.  Pike - possibly injured
4.  Bradford - injured
5.  Clausen - possible contender (much as I hate to admit it)
6.  Best - He has sucked lately

I don't see anyone else other than now Mark Ingram.  Ingram has 905 yards, 3rd in the nation.  All the stats haven't been compiled yet, but his YPA will certainly go up, he added his 8th TD, he is also a weapon coming out of the backfield.  I don't see how anyone else can be considered a better candidate at this point in the season.  Notre Dame is not a good team, so that will kill Clausen's chances before the year is out.  No one on USC is good enough right now.  Tebow and McCoy will still be the favorites until their team's lose, but they are not having seasons worthy of Heisman consideration.  I do not think Ingram will win it no matter how well he does since there is no national campaign for him right now, but if he keeps this up he will have the stats for it.

5.   First BCS standings come out tomorrow:

It may be a meaningless mile marker, but the BCS standings will be out tomorrow.  Teams that start the standings 1 and 2 VERY rarely play each other in the BCS title game, and this season is likely to be no different.  Since Florida and Alabama would be very hard pressed to play in the SEC and BCS title games, its not gonna happen.  Here is what the Standings may look like, going by the Brad Edwards Mock BCS standings from last week and taking out some of the losing teams:

1.   Florida
2.   Alabama
3.   Texas
4.   Boise State
5.   USC
6.   LSU
7.   Cincinnati
8.   Iowa
9.   Miami
10. Georgia Tech

I think USC and LSU should both be ahead of Boise given their schedule and the way they have handled it this season.  They need to be KILLING people since they play no one but they don't do that.

Georgia Tech is a big of a stretch since they were 19th and 20th in the polls this weekend, but a good win over a very toug Virginia Tech team should be enough to jump them into the top 10.  Officially they are 2nd in the Coastal division, but if they are able to beat Virginia this weekend, they will have the head to head victory over every divisional contender on the season with a game at Duke all that remains.  In fact, the Yellow Jackets shouldn't be tested again until Thanksgiving weekend against Georgia.  Are they a dark horse BCS contender?

Iowa may be a team to watch out for this season.  They still have a game against Ohio State remaining, but they have a lot of the standard formula for a great team.  Good running game, veteran QB, and a stout defense.  Only time will tell

6.  Looking ahead to next weekend.

Not much doing for the midweek games sadly enough.  Florida State @ North Carolina on Thursday night may have looked better in the preseason but won't be for much right now.  Only matchup between ranked teams is likely to be TCU vs. BYU.  This is a big one for those who like BCS Busters vs. Those of us who do not.  Boise State travels to Hawaii in another BCS Buster special.  That game will be online @ ESPN360.com.  LSU vs. Auburn is usually a big matchup, but not so much this year at least not nationally.  But, it may be one of my favorite weeks of the season because.......

7.  IT'S TENNESSEE WEEK!!!!

God do I HATE Tennessee!  I had to root for them to beat Auburn a few weeks ago and it just made me sick to do it.  I cannot stand those Viles.  Maybe its only because I only know UT of the Phil Fulmer years.  I know the rivalry used to be about respect.  I know you always wanted to beat UT, but you didn't hate them.  All the old coaches would say "You find out how much of a man you are by how you play against Tennessee (or Alabama coming from the other side)."  But I don't know THAT Tennessee.  I only know the Tennessee of Fulmer and the "secret witness."  I will talk more this week about the Tennessee week and what it means to Alabama, but that's a little taste right now.

For the Alabama fans that read this blog:  Who do you hate more:  Auburn, Tennessee, or someone else?  I know LSU and Florida are hated too

Week 7 Picks of the Week

1.  Virginia Tech - 3.5 @ Georgia Tech 5:00 PM ESPN2


Already talked about this game in the games of the week post so I won't dwell on it.  But Va Tech's offense is just too explosive to be stopped.  The Hokies will will convincingly

2.  USC - 10 @ Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC

Again, already talked about this one.  USC has all the skills, Notre Dame is weak.  Jimmy Clausen has his name on some Heisman lists, but that is all about to change.  Golden Tate will be doubled all day and that will take away most of The Domer's offense. USC may not be as explosive as in years past, but you won't find many more technically sound football teams out there.

3.  Illinois - 2.5 @ Indiana 6:00 PM Big Ten Network

Coming into the season, this game probably looked like a 20+ point Illinois advantage.  To be close to a pick'em game like this is nothing short of amazing.  Indiana has no talent whatsoever.  Pretty good numbers by the quarterback Ben Chappell with a 65% completion percentage, but with less than 7 yards per attempt, they don't exactly throw much other than easily completed balls.  And a 40 point loss to Virginia doesn't give me much to hope for.  Illinois on the other hand is full of talent, just not full of results yet this year.  They are just 1-4, but all four losses have been to very good football teams in Missouri, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State.  Arrelious Benn is still without a touchdown catch this season which is nothing short of amazing.  QB Juice Williams has just two TD passes this season, but one each in the last two games and he is getting back on track.  His performance against Michigan State was....well....bad however.  I think this is the game where they really put it all together and I see a 24-12 victory.

4.  Miami -14.5 @ Central Florida 6:30 PM

I know nothing about Central Florida this season, and that's just the point.  I know alot about Miami, and I like what I've seen outside of the Virginia Tech game.  Jacory Harris was a possible Heisman leader earlier in the year but has dropped off a bit.   He does have ten touchdown passes this season, but it is against already 7 picks.  Javarris James and Graig Cooper carry the load at running back and through the air, four receivers have double digits in catches with another sitting at 9.  This is a very good though not yet great Miami team.  I don't see them giving up much for points in this 41-10 win.

5.  Texas A&M -6 @ Kansas State 6:00 PM

K. State is 3-3 with wins against....well....no one.  They squeaked by again UMASS opening weekend, lost to Louisiana-Lafayette the next and got pretty much dominated by UCLA after that.  They did kill Tennessee Tech but just barely squeaked by Iowa State before getting smoked by Texas Tech.  There really is nothing to love about this team.  The Aggies have stumbled as of late, but make no mistake about it, they are a very good football team.  Getting dominated by Arkansas is no crime, that's a great football team.  And Oklahoma State is very good.  Quarterback Jerrod Johnson has a stunning 14-0 TD-INT ratio and is hitting 60% of his passes.  The Yards/Attempt average is a little low however.  Cyrus Gray leads the team in carries, but has under a five yard average.  7 Aggies have at least 10 catches this season.  I see a huge win for Texas A&M, maybe to the tune of 45-13.

Week 7 Games of the Week

We have five games between top 25 teams this weekend.  Great Weekend for some college football.

5.  #8 Cincinnati @ #21 South Florida Thursday Night 6:30 PM CDT EPSN

The likely de-facto Big East championship game happens tonight!  I know the Big East is a BCS conference, but I'm still considering this game like a BCS buster special.  Undefeated Big East teams are not looked on very highly in most season.  West Virginia a couple years ago was the exception, but people are very skeptial about Cincinnati and South Florida this season.  And I am no different.  The conference is weak, but to be fair, both teams have some good out of conference wins.  Cinci has beaten Oregon State on the road, and South Florida has beaten Florida State.  Even in a down year, that is a good win for USF.  Cincinnati QB Tony Pike is a Heisman candidate and needs a national stage to showcase his talents.  ESPN's Todd McShay seems to like him already, so that will help.  But Thursday night will go a long way for his Heisman candidacy.  November 13th vs. West Virginia will help too.  South Florida is missing their start quarterback Matt Grothe
, but B.J. Daniels has stepped up very nicely.  Cincinnati is giving 2.5 in this game, but I still take them because of the Tony Pike factor 31-20.

4.  #4 Virginia Tech @ #19 Georgia Tech 5:00 PM ESPN2

The likely ACC Coastal championship game is on the line this weekend in this matchup.  Miami is still waiting in the wings in that division, but  the loss to Virginia Tech head-to-head will hurt.  Of course if Georgia Tech wins, its all out the window.  We all know about Tech's amazing ground attack.  Jonathan Dwyer leads the team in yards.  QB Josh Nesbit leads in carries, but only as a 3.9 YPC average.  Have to factor sacks into that equation too though.  Anothony Allen is another one....and he is a BURNER as the second running back.  Through the air, Tech isn't spectacular with only 5 TD passes on the year.  Virginia Tech has been nearly unstoppable this year save the Alabama game.  They maybe should have lost to Nebraska, but otherwise have looked good.  Tyrod Taylor hasn't look spectacular through the air, but he is keeping the ball out of the defense's hands with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio.  Ryan Williams is really filling in nicely with nearly 1/2 of the team's total carriers on the season and a 5.8 YPC average.  Va Tech is getting 3.5 in this game....but thats not nearly enough.  31-17 Hokies.

3.   #22 South Carolina @ #2 Alabama 6:45 PM ESPN

It's going to be a tough game, but don't count out South Carolina in this game.  They are just one play away from being undefeated and have beaten a very good Ole Miss team.  Stephen Garcia is coming into his own as a quarterback with over 60% completion percentage.  No one has really stepped up on the ground as of yet however.  Brian Maddox has the most carries but only a 3.1 YPC average.  The Gamecocks like to spread the ball around on offense, which Alabama does have issues stopping at times.  6 cocks have at least 10 catches on the year.  And Steve Spurrier LOVES to beat Alabama and hasn't played in Tuscaloosa since he was at Florida.  But Alabama has been the most impressive team in the nation to date.  Greg McElroy as more than filled in for John Parker Wilson (although that wasn't all that difficult really) and guys like Ingram and especially Richardson on the ground are making Tide fans ask "Glen Coffee Who?"  Alabama has four running backs that could start on many elite teams.  Ingram leads the offense wit 659 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Richardson is developing into a superstar already just 1/2 the way into his true freshman season.  4 receivers have at least 10 catches with the leading receiver, Marquis Maze, having just 242 yards.  But this means Alabama no longer relies on Julio to make all the catches.  Eventually, he will be freed up on single coverages and be able to run wild again.  Alabama is giving 17.5 in this game...and that sounds about right.  I am tempted to take USCe to stay within the spread, but I just can't do it.  Alabama 31-10.

2.  #6 USC @ #25 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC

Two of the top three media darlings are up against each other this weekend in South Bend.  If only Tim Tebow could ref the game and everyone that matters according to the media would be in one place! I hate to say it, but Jimmy Clausen does look pretty good.  68% completion, 12 TD, just 2 INT.  Armondo Allen on the ground has been as good as expected.  Golden Tate is an ELITE receiver with 33 catches, but with the injury to Michael Floyd, Tate will see a lot of double coverages and won't see much open space.  Since the Nevada game, Notre Dame has played every game within a touchdown with the biggest margin of victory being a 7 point overtime win against Washington.  USC isn't the USC of old either.  Matt Barkley is healthy and ready to go, but isn't overpowering from the QB position.  Joe McKnight gets the majority of carries and has a 7.1 YPC, but isn't a between the tackles runner.  Stafon Johnson is, but he is out for the year, at least.  Allen Bradford does well as an inside runner, but Johnson was the goal line touchdown machine.  USC probably has 5 backs that could tote the rock if called upon.  Damian Williams leads the receiving corps with 24 catches.  Beyond Williams, no one has really stepped up.  And the USC defense has given up just 43 points this season.  USC is giving 10, not enough.  38-13 Trojans.  If not, count Jimmy Clausen as your Heisman winner already.

1.  #20 Oklahoma @ #3 Texas 11:00 AM ABC

The Red River Rivalry.  Still want to call it the shootout, but sadly we don't do that anymore.  God forbid we discuss a shootout in TEXAS!  Not like that ever happened or anything like that.  But I digress.  This match up might not have some of the luster it did in recent years, but its still a top notch game.  Oklahoma's national title hopes are likely dead, but its conference title hopes are not.  An OU victory could likely mean a Texas team not winning its conference but still being in line as a top one loss team to play in the title game.  Sam Bradford is back and looks as good as ever.  Granted, it was just Baylor he was playing against.  The Sooners have a two headed  monster of Demarco Murray and Chris Brown at running back.  Both have over 70 carries and both have a near 5 YPC average.  OU is giving up just 8.4 PPG on defense.  But Texas is the top team in the nation outside of the SEC for a reason.  Despite the head to head victory in last year's game, Texas was shut out of the national title game.  That will not happen this year since OU already has two losses and Texas knows that.  They also know that if they do not win their conference (Division for that matter) that they are unlikely to get the BCS nod over another 1 loss conference champion, or even an undefeated mid major.  Colt McCoy is probably the leader for the Heisman at this point and is playing spectacularly.  The Horns top two running backs, Vondrell McGee and Tre' Newon are dinged up and may not play.  Foswhitt Whittaker figures to take over as the top back if they cannot go and looked just fine last weekend when called upon.  The Horns have 3 receivers with at least 20 catches led by Jordan Shipley with 47 grabs already on the year.  Shipley, Dan Bucker, and converted quarterback John Chiles make for a potent trio of receivers that will be all over the OU defense.  Texas does give up a little more than OU with 15 PPG.  Vegas has Texas giving 3.5 in this one, don't worry though.  It will be close, it always is, but Texas in a surprising defensive game 24-13.

Week 6 Musings: SEC West

I swear, I will update more this week!  Been too busy at my "real" job to do much on here.

Not much change in the polls after this weekend's mostly predictable outcomes, but there are a few things worth discussing.

1.  Ole Miss crashes back to earth

In the preseason, we were talking about a possible SEC title for the Rebels this season.  Now, they have dropped out of the top 25 after a dominating loss to Alabama this weekend.  Alabama held Ole Miss to just 72 yards on the ground (44 of those coming from QB Jevan Snead) and picked off 4 passes.  Snead was just 11/34 for 140 yards.  The Rebels are now 3-2 on the year, but are still in very good position to creep back into the top 25.  UAB should be an easy victory next weekend, but then a home date with Arkansas and on the road at Auburn will both be tests.  Northern Arizona will just be a tune up game before hosting Tennessee and hosting LSU before heading to Mississippi State for the Egg Bowl Thanksgiving weekend.  The rebels can finish the season anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3.  I see them going 8-4 and possibly ending the year in the top 25.

2.  Auburn crashes back to earth

Not much was expected from the Tigers this season.  Not ranked in the top 25 and not even in the discussion for an SEC west title.  But a 5-0 start got Auburn up to #17 in the rankings and people started to say how good they looked.  But Auburn never played anyone.  La Tech, Mississippi State, and Ball State all should have been wins for sure, and then there was a Pat White-less West Virginia that should have won if it were not for some horrid turnovers.  Victory over Tennessee in Knoxville began to legitimize Auburn, but then came the trip to Arkansas.  A 44-23 loss knocked Auburn right out of the top 25.  The game shouldn't have even been that close though as Late in the 3rd quarter Arkansas was up 34-3.  Sadly, we all wanted Auburn to not make a bowl game this season, but it looks like that isn't likely.  At 5-1, Auburn needs just one more win to get bowl eligible with games against Kentucky and Furman still on the schedule.  They also go to LSU, host Ole Miss, travel to Georgia, and host Alabama.  Auburn can finish as good as 9-3 and as low as 7-5.  I see Auburn finishing 8-4 and like Ole Miss, fighting for the bottom of the top 25.

3.  LSU is not very good

I know the Florida defense is spectacular.  They have given up just 32 points all season.  But LSU is not the LSU it once was.  They have all the talent, but can't really put it together.  LSU should be 3-3 right now.  If the Mississippi State quarterback could have extended the ball over the endzone and if the refs didn't screw Georgia, LSU wouldn't even be in the top 25 today.  Against Florida, Jordan Jefferson was 11/17 but for only 96 yards.  Charles Scott had just 53 yards on 13 carries and as a team the Tigers were just 1-9 on 3rd downs.  Defensively, they did keep Florida to just 13 points, but Florida's playbook was very limited with Tebow's injury status.  LSU is 5-1 right now, but I don't see any more than two guaranteed victories on their schedule.  They host Auburn, which they should win, and then host Tulane which they will win before going to Alabama, which they should get demolished.  They will beat LA Tech, but then @ Ole Miss and hosting Arkansas are question marks.  If the season falls right, the Tigers will be 10-2.  If it falls bad, they could be 7-5.  I see an 8-4 finish.

If all of these predictions are right, the SEC will have a lot of teams in the 18-25 ranking range at the end of the season.

Not alot of great SEC match-ups this weekend.  Georgia @ Vandy, MSU @ MTSU, UAB @ Ole Miss, Arkansas @ Florida, and Kentucky @ Auburn don't give us much to talk about.  But #22 South Carolina @ #2 Alabama is an intriguing match up for sure.  More on that game later this week in my top five games post however.

Tomorrow:  Look for top five games of the week AND games against the spread picks