Week 6 Musings: SEC West

I swear, I will update more this week!  Been too busy at my "real" job to do much on here.

Not much change in the polls after this weekend's mostly predictable outcomes, but there are a few things worth discussing.

1.  Ole Miss crashes back to earth

In the preseason, we were talking about a possible SEC title for the Rebels this season.  Now, they have dropped out of the top 25 after a dominating loss to Alabama this weekend.  Alabama held Ole Miss to just 72 yards on the ground (44 of those coming from QB Jevan Snead) and picked off 4 passes.  Snead was just 11/34 for 140 yards.  The Rebels are now 3-2 on the year, but are still in very good position to creep back into the top 25.  UAB should be an easy victory next weekend, but then a home date with Arkansas and on the road at Auburn will both be tests.  Northern Arizona will just be a tune up game before hosting Tennessee and hosting LSU before heading to Mississippi State for the Egg Bowl Thanksgiving weekend.  The rebels can finish the season anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3.  I see them going 8-4 and possibly ending the year in the top 25.

2.  Auburn crashes back to earth

Not much was expected from the Tigers this season.  Not ranked in the top 25 and not even in the discussion for an SEC west title.  But a 5-0 start got Auburn up to #17 in the rankings and people started to say how good they looked.  But Auburn never played anyone.  La Tech, Mississippi State, and Ball State all should have been wins for sure, and then there was a Pat White-less West Virginia that should have won if it were not for some horrid turnovers.  Victory over Tennessee in Knoxville began to legitimize Auburn, but then came the trip to Arkansas.  A 44-23 loss knocked Auburn right out of the top 25.  The game shouldn't have even been that close though as Late in the 3rd quarter Arkansas was up 34-3.  Sadly, we all wanted Auburn to not make a bowl game this season, but it looks like that isn't likely.  At 5-1, Auburn needs just one more win to get bowl eligible with games against Kentucky and Furman still on the schedule.  They also go to LSU, host Ole Miss, travel to Georgia, and host Alabama.  Auburn can finish as good as 9-3 and as low as 7-5.  I see Auburn finishing 8-4 and like Ole Miss, fighting for the bottom of the top 25.

3.  LSU is not very good

I know the Florida defense is spectacular.  They have given up just 32 points all season.  But LSU is not the LSU it once was.  They have all the talent, but can't really put it together.  LSU should be 3-3 right now.  If the Mississippi State quarterback could have extended the ball over the endzone and if the refs didn't screw Georgia, LSU wouldn't even be in the top 25 today.  Against Florida, Jordan Jefferson was 11/17 but for only 96 yards.  Charles Scott had just 53 yards on 13 carries and as a team the Tigers were just 1-9 on 3rd downs.  Defensively, they did keep Florida to just 13 points, but Florida's playbook was very limited with Tebow's injury status.  LSU is 5-1 right now, but I don't see any more than two guaranteed victories on their schedule.  They host Auburn, which they should win, and then host Tulane which they will win before going to Alabama, which they should get demolished.  They will beat LA Tech, but then @ Ole Miss and hosting Arkansas are question marks.  If the season falls right, the Tigers will be 10-2.  If it falls bad, they could be 7-5.  I see an 8-4 finish.

If all of these predictions are right, the SEC will have a lot of teams in the 18-25 ranking range at the end of the season.

Not alot of great SEC match-ups this weekend.  Georgia @ Vandy, MSU @ MTSU, UAB @ Ole Miss, Arkansas @ Florida, and Kentucky @ Auburn don't give us much to talk about.  But #22 South Carolina @ #2 Alabama is an intriguing match up for sure.  More on that game later this week in my top five games post however.

Tomorrow:  Look for top five games of the week AND games against the spread picks